A strong upper-deck wave pushed a strong cold front across Kansas throughout the night and early morning of the 19th and 20th. The result was that widespread sleet and freezing rain occurred across all of the WFO Wichita County Warning Area with most of the adverse winter weather occurring on the 20th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
A strong upper-deck wave pushed a strong cold front across Kansas throughout the night and early morning of the 19th and 20th. The result was that widespread sleet and freezing rain occurred across all of the WFO Wichita County Warning Area with most of the adverse winter weather occurring on the 20th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 9:43 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 943 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Given current and expected trends, expanded the winter weather advisory to include much of central, south-central and east- central Kansas. Overnight shift may need to consider expanding another row of counties southeast, especially if the 00z NAM verifies. Deepening/strengthening isentropic ascent amidst weak/modest elevated instability ahead of an approaching shortwave is starting to take shape late this evening, with cellular/convective elements increasing on the regional radar mosaic, with even some lightning being detected. Thermodynamic profiles suggest precipitation type with this activity is and will be a mix of freezing rain and sleet, with patchy freezing drizzle in between. Later tonight through Tuesday morning, another round of lift is expected as a strengthening upper jet plants itself north of the region, with increasing freezing rain coverage mainly along and just southeast of the Turnpike corridor across the Flint Hills. Light ice accumulations are likely, with very slick roads and other surfaces developing overnight. Please be careful if venturing out overnight. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 The cold front has plummeted through most of the state and dropped temperatures significantly with the arrival of the cold air. This has created a difficult hourly temperature forecast with falling values throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Forecast challenges and highlights: 1) Hourly temperatures for tonight into Tuesday 2) Precipitation chances and type 3) Winter Weather Advisory issued for a few counties A cold front is draped from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma with the main trough still over the Rockies. The cold front and respective cold air have created a problematic forecast in terms of hourly temperatures and precipitation. Models are horribly handling the hourly temperatures keeping everything much too warm compared to the observations. The NAMnest was selected to be the closest for the forecast for tonight into the first part of Tuesday. These temperatures have made it very difficult to determine the exact precipitation types particularly with the depth and temperatures of the warm nose aloft. Model soundings show only low level forcing with minimal lift for central and much of south central Kansas this evening. Most of central Kansas actually only indicates this low level moisture which is not surprising given the flow pattern and extent of the northward moisture progression. Therefore drizzle and freezing drizzle were inserted. A brief increase in temperatures depending on its longevity could play a role in the type. Freezing rain is anticipated this evening into the morning across Saline, McPherson, Marion and Chase counties. Accumulations could be a tenth to even two tenths of an inch. Therefore a Winter Weather Advisory was hoisted. Please see the advisory for further details. The southwestern extent of this type of precipitation is in question, and freezing rain could impact a greater portion of the area. It is possible that the advisory may need to be expanded. A light glaze or the mentioned accumulations would create travel difficulties especially during the morning commute. It would be a good idea to leave early and take it slow. Southeast Kansas is still expected to have showers and thunderstorms which already began during the daytime hours today. The warm air and moisture advection combined with the location of the low level jet are anticipated to trigger storms this evening into the first half of Tuesday. There could be small hail and maybe a wind gust to 40-50mph which are the same threats that were mentioned previously. Periods of heavy rainfall will be a bigger factor for this area. The trough is anticipated to finally push out on Tuesday; however, this does not mean hourly temperatures were any easier mainly over southeast Kansas where the high temperature for the day will be in the morning thanks to the arrival of the cold air. Its exact timing is questionable. Areas in eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks remain to have the highest potential precipitation accumulations of three to over five inches in the next few days. While south central and southeast Kansas are expected to see less, totals could be a half of an inch to two inches thru Thursday evening. The arrival of precipitation will certainly put a smile on the faces of many. Chances of precipitation and its respective type have been adjusted from the previous forecast particularly on Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. High pressure is expected to move in for Wednesday. There are returning chances of mixed phase precipitation in the forecast on Wednesday night into Thursday. It is truly a mixed bag in the type for most of this time period. On Thursday afternoon, warmer air will move in to transition the type to all rain. There does appear to be wider coverage with this wave moving through the Plains. This forecast was definitely a challenge with models contradicting one another in terms of their expectations for the precipitation. Changes are likely in the coming days so stay tuned. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 This is certainly an active pattern. The next trough will move through on Saturday. There is moisture associated with this system as well bringing chances of precipitation for the day. A mix of rain or snow is possible early Saturday, but rain is expected for much of the rest of the day. Another trough is progged to move across on Monday. Overall temperatures should be fairly nice for this part of the forecast with highs mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Current thinking is precipitation will gradually increase in coverage from the southwest between 9-11pm and persist off-and-on overnight into Tuesday morning across mainly the eastern half of KS, as isentropic ascent and elevated instability increase ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. In the warmer air across southeast KS, precipitation type will be showers with embedded thunderstorms. Further northwest in the colder air, patchy areas of freezing drizzle, freezing rain and sleet are possible along with embedded thunder. Additionally, widespread IFR to MVFR conditions will persist overnight into Tuesday morning. Given the busy weather, anticipate numerous TAF amendments will be needed overnight, so stay tuned. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 There is not a concern for fire weather for this forecast with precipitation anticipated for most days in the next week. Winds will not be much of a concern after Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 29 35 17 34 / 60 40 10 20 Hutchinson 25 34 14 33 / 40 20 0 10 Newton 27 33 14 33 / 60 40 0 10 ElDorado 30 33 17 33 / 80 70 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 33 35 19 35 / 70 70 10 20 Russell 20 31 9 32 / 40 0 0 0 Great Bend 21 32 10 32 / 30 0 0 10 Salina 23 34 13 34 / 50 10 0 10 McPherson 25 33 13 33 / 60 20 0 10 Coffeyville 40 53 23 35 / 90 90 20 20 Chanute 35 35 21 35 / 90 90 20 10 Iola 34 34 20 34 / 90 90 20 10 Parsons-KPPF 38 41 23 35 / 90 90 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for KSZ049- 051>053-068>070-083. && UPDATE...ADK SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...VJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 915 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210315- Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase- Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper- Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette- 915 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas, South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain will impact the region overnight, especially along the Kansas Turnpike corridor on northwest. Roads, bridges, sidewalks and other surfaces will become very slick in spots. Be careful if venturing out overnight. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight as well, with the potential for brief bursts of small hail or sleet. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain will impact locations generally along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike corridor Tuesday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible as well, with the potential for brief bursts of small hail or sleet. Roads, bridges, sidewalks and other surfaces will become very slick in spots. Be careful if venturing out Tuesday morning. There are multiple chances for wintry precipitation this week, particularly Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, and again Friday night thru Saturday night. Low confidence exists for the timing, location and precipitation types. Please continue to check later outlooks for updated information. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. && For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1008 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 PM HAIL 4 NE ELLSWORTH 38.78N 98.18W
02/19/2018 E0.88 INCH ELLSWORTH KS PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL. REPORTED ALONG I-70, COVERING THE GROUND.
0957 PM FREEZING RAIN WILSON 38.83N 98.47W
02/19/2018 E0.00 INCH Ellsworth KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
VERY LIGHT GLAZING.
&&
BDKThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Freezing rain produced close to 1/4 inch of glaze across Sedgwick County. The freezing rain was occasionally mixed with sleet, which accumulated to 0.40 inch in Goddard.
The spotter measured 0.25 inch sleet just northeast of Buhler.
Around 0.25 inch of sleet was reported 3 miles east northeast of Cleveland.
The spotter measured 0.20 inch of sleet.
Around 0.25 inch of glaze accumulated on trees and power lines 5 miles north of Altoona. Road surfaces were beginning to freeze.
Freezing rain produced around 0.25 inch of glaze on trees and power lines 5 miles east southeast of Humboldt and around 0.12 inch 2 miles east of Iola. In several areas, the power lines began to sag. Glazing did not occur on roads and highways.
Freezing rain downed a few limbs in Coffeyville.
Freezing rain began to accumulate on trees and power lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 736838, 736844, 736845, 736841, 736847, 736849, 736850, 736852.