A slow-moving cold front drifted slowly southeast across the lower Ohio Valley on the 27th, then stalled over the Tennessee Valley on the 28th. The front returned north as a warm front and stalled over the Ohio Valley on the 29th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A slow-moving cold front drifted slowly southeast across the lower Ohio Valley on the 27th, then stalled over the Tennessee Valley on the 28th. The front returned north as a warm front and stalled over the Ohio Valley on the 29th. Widespread heavy rainfall from this oscillating front eventually brought rivers above flood stage. The rivers continued rising into April.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 12:09 AM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1209 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the PAH forecast area, with numerous showers along and behind the front. Showers will continue to spread east into this evening as the front moves across our region. The most significant rain through late evening will be across much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois into portions of southwest Indiana, and then the axis of heaviest rain will shift southeast, with west Kentucky seeing the bulk of its share of the rain from mid evening into early Wednesday, give or take a few hours. Rainfall amounts still look like around an inch and a half in southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky, to around two and a half inches from southwest Illinois into portions of southeast Missouri, with isolated higher amounts possible. Isolated flooding issues are possible, but we do not expected widespread issues at this point. We will continue to monitor rainfall rates and adjust amounts if needed. GFS and ECMWF indicate shower chances decreasing Wednesday afternoon into possibly Wednesday evening across all but west Kentucky with the front well south of our region. Any break will be short lived with models bringing another area of low pressure along the front, lifting it back into the PAH forecast area. This will trigger numerous showers area wide, especially late Wednesday night into Thursday. The heavier rainfall amounts will shift southeast from totals of our first round of showers, with amounts from Wednesday night into Thursday ranging from a half inch to an inch and a half across west Kentucky, to generally around a half inch in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Showers will taper off west to east Thursday night. Temperatures will remain mild through Thursday, then we should see a cool down to near seasonal readings Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 The GEFS/ECENES means continued to depict a generally cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS throughout the extended forecast period, and the solutions looked similar. However, the deterministic versions of the medium range models continued to have some difficulty with the smaller details of timing of various impulses of mid level shortwave energy and their attendant surface features. Confidence in the dry, mostly clear forecast is higher on Fri/Fri night with good agreement among the medium range models. There will be high surface pressure over the PAH forecast area, overtopped by northwesterly flow aloft. Generally light northerly winds are expected to reverse direction overnight on the backside of the high. PoPs should gradually ramp up on Sat from the northwest with the approach of a cold front trailing a mid level shortwave moving through the Great Lakes region. Sat night still looks like a wet one for the region, with lower trop temps cold enough for the possibility of some snowflakes in the air north of I-64 late in the night. The weather picture is a little more murky for the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Sun should be dry for at least part of the day behind the front, but pcpn will probably return for Sun night, according to most deterministic model solutions, except for the 12Z ECMWF. Most models depicted a warm advection pattern developing Sun night, with the cold front just to our south, and a pressure wave or waves along it. The ECMWF instead showed a more expansive high pressure area moving into the PAH forecast area, under more prominent west-northwesterly flow aloft. A slightly modified model blend provided a reasonable compromise: high chance to likely PoPs Sun night, diminishing to slight or low chance PoPs for Mon. Tue has chance Pops in the forecast, mainly due to the GFS. The likelihood of lightning appears very limited through the extended period. Expect seasonable or slightly below seasonable temps. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1208 aM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Post frontal MVFR ceilings and visibilities will intersperse with IFR ceilings associated with band of generally light rain overnight into mid-morning. A brief break into MVFR/VFR category ceilings will be possible from late morning into the early afternoon, before returning to IFR/MVFR ceilings in the afternoon and evening. Forecast confidence is currently 50/50 on this scenario. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...Smith
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-282045- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Tonight Locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight. The greatest impact hazard will likely be with potential isolated flooding of low lying or poorly drained areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Additional forecast rainfall of one half to one inch through the end of the work week will impact soaked grounds and potentially be and additional impact hazard for isolated flooding of low lying or poorly drained areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of rainfall as well as any flooding would be appreciated.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 944 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-280930- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION, MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, METROPOLIS, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE, BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE, PADUCAH, MAYFIELD, SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, MARION, EDDYVILLE, CADIZ, PRINCETON, MORGANFIELD, DIXON, MADISONVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, HENDERSON, OWENSBORO, CALHOUN, GREENVILLE, ELKTON, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN, DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON, CHARLESTON, AND NEW MADRID 944 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 ...Locally heavy rain still expected to impact some locations tonight into Wednesday morning... A slow moving cold front has continued to drift slowly southeast across western Kentucky late this evening. Along, and especially behind this cold front, numerous showers are expected through midnight. Many locations across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois have already picked up from 1 to 2 inches of rain, with a few locally higher amounts. However, no reports of flooding have been received so far this evening. It is now looking as though the heavier rains pushing southeast into the Ohio River Valley will taper off a bit as we head past midnight. Then, another round of heavier rains will likely get going down along the Mississippi River in northeast Arkansas and nose rapidly northeast into southern portions of western Kentucky late tonight into Wednesday morning. Although widespread overland flooding is not expected to occur, a few poorly drained and low lying areas may see sharp rises in water levels, including smaller creeks, streams, and ditches. Ponding of water on roadways and reduced visibilities are also likely with any heavier bursts of showers. The time period of greatest impact due to the heavy rain will subside across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as the night progresses. However, heavy rain impacts may increase later tonight into Wednesday morning over the southern Purchase and Pennyrile regions of western Kentucky. Always use caution near ditches and creeks with fast moving waters and avoid any roadways that may be covered with water. Remember that rising waters are more difficult to discern when it is dark. You should always play it safe. Turn around, don't drown. Meffert
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The White River rose above flood stage on the 28th and continued rising through the end of the month. The flooding during late March was minor, consisting of bottomland woods and fields.
The White River rose above flood stage on the 28th and continued rising through the end of the month. The flooding during late March was minor, consisting of bottomland woods and fields.
The Wabash River rose above flood stage on the 29th and continued rising through the end of the month. The flooding during late March was minor, consisting of bottomland woods and fields.
The Wabash River rose above flood stage on the 29th and continued rising through the end of the month. The flooding during late March was minor, consisting of bottomland woods and fields.
The Patoka River rose above flood stage on the 29th and continued rising through the end of the month. The flooding during late March was minor, consisting of bottomland woods and fields.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 740445, 740438, 740421, 740424, 740431.