Several rounds of heavy rain and snow melt upstream led to significant rises on area rivers in the middle of the month. Portions of the Ohio River went into flood starting in the middle of the month, remaining above flood stage into March.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
Several rounds of heavy rain and snow melt upstream led to significant rises on area rivers in the middle of the month. Portions of the Ohio River went into flood starting in the middle of the month, remaining above flood stage into March.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 17, 2:26 AM EST, 3 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 226 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .Short Term...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 Surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure sprawled across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Latest IR satellite imagery depicted a blanket of stratus across southern Indiana and central Kentucky while high clouds were spreading east into the region. Regional radar all clear and with light north/northeast winds, readings were in the 30s, near 40 closer to the KY/TN border. The main focus in the short term is for today's rain as a southern stream system quickly spreads across the region. The latest guidance including hi-res models is in good agreement showing precipitation spreading in from the southwest after daybreak, peaking in the mid/late morning through early/mid afternoon before exiting the area late this afternoon. No significant changes were made to the precipitation chances from the previous forecast other than blending the hourly forecast with the latest guidance. Looking at surface temperatures and forecast soundings, there's still potential for precipitation onset to be a mix of rain and snow, generally along/north of the I-64 corridor with temperatures initially in the 32-35 degree range. Little if any snow accumulation is expected as ground temperatures are warm and daytime accumulation is harder to achieve. By late morning, precipitation is expected to be all rain. Nonetheless, wouldn't be surprised to see some wet snowflakes mixed in where precip bands are the heaviest. Total rainfall amounts are expected to vary from less than 1/4 of an inch across southern Indiana, then 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch across southern Kentucky. While heavy rain is not anticipated, across southern Kentucky these amounts could cause some additional rises on rivers, streams, and creeks given the recent wet spell and saturated soils. High temperatures today won't vary too much from morning readings with the precipitation and clouds around. Plan on highs to top out in the lower to middle 40s while some spots across the northern Bluegrass could stay right around 40. Clouds will clear out later this evening and tonight as high pressure moves directly over Kentucky. With the light winds, clearing skies, and recent rainfall, added patchy fog to the forecast. Lows will fall into the lower 30s. Sunday is still shaping up to a dry day with highs in the 50s and a mix of sun and clouds. && .Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2018 ...Increasing Potential For River Flooding Next Week... Highly anomalous weather pattern is still poised to set up across the lower Ohio Valley next week bringing threats for heavy rain, river flooding, and potentially record warm temperatures to parts of Kentucky and southern Indiana. By Monday, the upper level pattern is expected to feature a building southeast US ridge while troughing digs across the southwest US. The southwest flow in between will allow an axis of highly anomalous Gulf moisture to stream north/northeast through the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. 17.00z GFS PWATs ranged from 1.2 to 1.4 inches across portions of Indiana and Kentucky Monday through Wednesday, which is near records for mid/late February at ILN/BNA/ILX. The first wave of precipitation comes late Sunday night through Monday as the warm front lifts north across the region with the highest precipitation chances after midnight through noon on Monday. Depending on how quickly the warm front surges north, temperatures Monday will warm well into the 70s across Kentucky with highs currently forecast near 75 degrees across southern Kentucky. Monday night through Tuesday should be mainly dry and near record warm. 17.00z guidance points to 850 mb temperatures reaching +10 to +14C, which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Blended guidance puts highs in the mid to upper 70s, but wouldn't be surprised if this trends higher and portions of southern Kentucky and parts of the Bluegrass surge to 80 degrees if clouds clear out. Current forecast already hits or exceeds record temperatures for the day (just set in 2016 or 2017) and the all-time February record is 81 for Louisville (set in 2017). The bulk of the heavy rain axis Tuesday into Tuesday night looks to stay just northwest of the forecast area, though we'll have to watch portions of southwest Indiana which may be clipped. By Wednesday, guidance points to the front slipping through Kentucky bringing widespread rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to the area. Total rainfall amounts forecast for Monday through Wednesday came in lower across southern and southeast Kentucky with totals around 1 inch. Across southern Indiana, especially southwest Indiana, totals of 2 to 3 inches are still forecast. With the ongoing rises on rivers, this additional rainfall could cause further rises on small river basins, streams, and creeks and extend the rises on the main stem Ohio River which is forecast to rise into minor flood stage next week. More rainfall could fall Thursday into next weekend as models show another frontal boundary stalling near the region. Still lots of time to hone in on where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, but the overall forecast regarding flooding is not very optimistic. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 A blanket of stratus has stubbornly remained in the region this evening, though there have been some breaks especially in the HNB and SDF areas. These clouds will likely continue for several more hours, possibly lifting slightly into VFR after sunup. An upper wave crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today will bring widespread rain from mid morning to late afternoon, along with low ceilings. Some wet snowflakes will mix in for the first couple hours of precipitation at HNB and possibly SDF. A smaller disturbance will then cross the Midwest and Great Lakes this evening and may bring a few showers to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, along with more low clouds. Winds will come in from a variety of directions as surface high pressure moves off to the east this morning, a weakening surface trough approaches this afternoon, and then another high pressure system enters from the west tonight. Speeds will be light. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Short Term...ZT Long Term...ZT Aviation...13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 236 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-180745- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 236 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 /136 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Rain today will total between 1/2 and 1 inch across southern Kentucky. This may result in rises on area rivers, streams, and creeks through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Several rounds of rainfall are likely Monday through Friday next week. The axis of heaviest rain looks to be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky where 2 to locally 3 inches are possible. With soils saturated and area streams and rivers running high, flooding is likely where the heaviest rain falls. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. ZT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Ohio River at Tell City went into moderate flood stage. The river crested at 49.3 feet which is 11.30 feet above flood stage. The river remained above flood stage at the end of the month.
The Ohio River at Cannelton Lock went above Flood Stage (42') on February 19, and exceeded Major Flood Stage (46') from 0330 CST February 23 into March. The river crested at 50.68' at 2045 CST on February 26, which was the highest level since 1997, and the 7th highest stage on record.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 739011, 739014.