Tornado in Indiana, August 15, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
707 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and
Thursday as an upper level disturbance lifts through. Lows tonight
will drop to near 70, with highs on Thursday near 80 degrees.
Another system moves through on Friday with chances for showers
and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a dry weekend as high
pressure builds in. Highs over the weekend will reach the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Mid level shortwave and associated weak sfc reflection over the
Missouri Valley as of this writing will advance slowly ene
tonight and Thursday. The wave itself will dampen as it
approaches, however excellent moisture transport within the
ramping/leading LLJ core should focus scattered to numerous
showers and perhaps some embedded thunder later this afternoon
into tonight. A small scale, convectively aided, vort and more
focused convergence within moisture channel looks to overlap into
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area during this
time where higher PoPs were retained. Deep warm cloud layer and
precipitable water values increasing to near 2 inches may lead to
locally heavy rainfall.

Showers may linger into Thursday morning, especially east of I-69.
Lesser shower coverage expected elsewhere in the morning/early
afternoon before iso-sct convection refires mid-late aftn thanks to
diurnal heating and a lingering low level boundary/lake breeze.
Clouds and scattered pcpn will limit highs to the upper 70s/low 80s
tomorrow otherwise.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Chances for an additional round of showers/thunder will persist into
Friday as trailing shortwave energy pivots through. This will be
followed by a dry/seasonable weekend as high pressure builds in
behind Friday's wave. Next pv anomaly looks rather robust in nw
flow later Monday/Tuesday per last several model cycles. This
could present a round of more intense convection during this time,
though details (timing/intensity) remain sketchy at this forecast
range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Discernible but weakening mcv near KGUS will continue newd short
term as mid level precip echoes invof KFWA diminish. Better low
level theta-e/moisture advection seen rapidly advancing newd out of
srn IL/srn IN ahead of secondary/stronger disturbance lifting out of
ern MO. This should spurn more sig shower/storm development toward
midnight south and borne out in like minder recent CAMS solutions.
KSBN generally sits in splitsville void of any sig vertical motion
and have dropped much of prior precip mention.

Nevertheless backing to serly sfc flow and ramping low level
moisture advection will yield deteriorating cigs and vsbys overnight
with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions which will be slow to
improve through Thu morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
509 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-160915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
509 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 /409 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms today; however, the storms
are not expected to become severe. Locally heavy rain is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue into next week.
Severe storms are not forecast, but locally heavy rain is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-160915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
509 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today, but severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue into next week.
Severe storms are not forecast.