A multi-cell cluster of thunderstorms moved east across the southern tip of Illinois. Trees were blown down as these storms became locally severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A multi-cell cluster of thunderstorms moved east across the southern tip of Illinois. Trees were blown down as these storms became locally severe. The storms occurred along a warm front that extended southeast from a low pressure center over northwest Missouri. The storms occurred along a corridor of stronger low level winds, averaging near 30 knots at 1 km agl. Steep low level lapse rates allowed strong winds to reach the surface.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 11:06 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Aviation update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Current radar pic and surface analysis shows a nice wetting forecast setting up, with active showers/some storms already ongoing and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Greater instability is realized over the southern third of the FA, where MUCapes are running 1-2K J/KG. Effective surface-850 mb moisture transport is across this area, with 850 mb theta-e advection/ridging, so anticipate some locally heavy rainfall out of early am convection. Looking ahead, we remain warm sectored thru today-tonight, as the first wave of energy with the upper Low spins across the mid Mississippi river valley, just to our north. The associated surface boundary starts to poke into the FA from the northwest on Thursday, as the 2nd barrel of upper Low related energy pinwheels the upper trof/toward the mid Mississippi river valley. This will yield another slug of showers/storms with locally heavy rainfall for the 2nd half of the short term forecast period. All considered, this turns out to be mainly a QPF and collaboration forecast challenge for the short term. Analysis of local soundings thru these two time periods yields upwards to 2" PW's consistently across the FA from a variety of models, or near the 90th percentile. We remain outlooked for Marginal Risk thru the first round (Today-Tonight-Thursday), then upgrade to Slight Risk for Thu night-Fri-Fri night. We think that'll be high side/mainly for locally embedded heavier showers/storms, as we forecast a collaborated blend of areal average one inch amounts for each round, with everyone ending up around 2 inches by Saturday morning. Given how dry we've been, this should not cause problems, however, locally embedded high efficiency convection could yield totals greater than that, which could understandably poke into the slgt risk of exceeding FFG for some, esp if it occurs in a short period of time and/or cells repeat over the same locality. We'll hammer these points home in the HWO and related public venue messaging products, but stop short of headlines. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Fairly high confidence in the fact that there will be a very unsettled weather pattern for the entire forecast. There will be numerous chances of storms and weather systems, unusually active for this time of the season. Starting with Saturday we will have an open wave upper level trough with a surface reflection of a cold front moving through the region. This will result in a good chance of storms Saturday. The rain chances may linger into the evening but should diminish overnight. Sunday this front will lift back north as a warm front as weak upper level ridging forms. This again will result in at least daytime chances for rain. As we head into next week, a more robust upper level open wave moves through, also accompanied by a surface cold front that will bring another round of storms to the region. This system should exit the region by Tuesday night. At this time wind fields appear relatively weak which should inhibit severe weather. However, there will be sufficient instability to produce some strong storms with CAPES around 2kj/kg2 and LI's around a negative 5, mainly during the peak heating hours. But it is a bit far out and parameters could change for the better. However I am confident the wind pattern through the column will not fluctuate much. As for temperatures, highs will be right at normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Cloud cover should contribute to the cooler temperatures. However they will also hold overnight lows a bit above normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Difficult forecast timing wise given the unsettled pattern will result in occasional thunderstorm and shower chances through midday Thursday. One weakening area near the Wabash/Ohio River Valleys will continue east this afternoon. Additional convection over southeast Missouri will increase and head into west KY and far southern IL. More thunderstorm chances expected overnight, with some data suggesting another flare up after midnight. All of this is reflected in the Terminals. MVFR to IFR conditions likely during convection, along with variable gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds will be SSW 5 to 10 kts on average. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 401 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 401 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will increase their coverage today and tonight. This will include a marginal risk of severe storms and a marginal risk of locally heavy rainfall causing flooding. If a strong or severe storm occurs, damaging wind is the main hazard. Otherwise heavy rain is the primary anticipated storm hazard. Lightning is also a storm hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A marginal risk of severe storms is possible again Thursday and Thursday night, and locally heavy rainfall will increase the risk for localized flooding from marginal Thursday to slight on Friday. Damaging wind is the main storm hazard should a strong or severe storm occur, while locally heavy rainfall is the primary storm hazard. Lightning will also be a storm hazard, as storm chances continue almost daily. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of rainfall are encouraged. Stay tuned to further forecasts and updates.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 927 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ILZ075>078-080>091-MOZ076-086-087-151600- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION, MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, AND JACKSON 927 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...Special Weather Statement... At 925 AM, an area of thunderstorms producing gusty winds 25 to 40 mph and heavy rain covered a portion of southeast Missouri, mainly north of a Greenville to Cape Girardeau line. The showers and storms continued to increase west of Interstate 57 in southern Illinois. The storms will move out of southeast Missouri through 1100 AM. The showers and storms will continue across southern Illinois and produce very heavy downpours of rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds and low visibility. Some minor water problems could develop in low lying and other favored areas. Stay tuned for additional statements. CN
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:16 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large trees were down just northwest of Cairo along Route 3.
More than ten trees were blown down, some of which brought power lines down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 771683, 771681.