Heavy rain in the upper Mississippi River basin caused a rise in the river level about mid-month. Minor flooding was observed in some places.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Heavy rain in the upper Mississippi River basin caused a rise in the river level about mid-month. Minor flooding was observed in some places.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 13, 11:46 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH Monday Night) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018 Lots of weather during this period. First issue is low clouds with some breaks in the northeast sections. GOES 16 nighttime microphysics helping somewhat. Expect low clouds to continue to gradually break up over the north and eastern half of the CWA during the morning. The western and southern sections may have more of an issue as one can already see the higher clouds moving in from the next system. Expect stratiform rain to spread into SEMO this afternoon and overspread the rest of the area overnight as overrunning pattern sets up. Initially low pressure will be over central Texas with the main front across AR and MS. During the night, a slight shift in the upper level pattern from west northwest to more southwesterly will allow the front to our south move northward. By 12z Sunday the front will be pretty close to the Ohio River. A small amount of surface instability, but more elevated instability moves into our area during the afternoon and evening so have isolated thunder potential during that time frame. On Monday a few minor waves move through which may bring a bit heavier rain at times mainly over the southern half of the area but instability will be limited. WPC has us in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall during that time as well. Some of the moisture moving our way is tropical in nature from a system in the Pacific plus precipitable water values increase to over 1.5 inches over parts of west Kentucky High pressure gradually works in from north to south during Monday Night. Depending upon cloud cover, may see some frost over at least the northern areas by daybreak Tuesday. If clouds and light rain moves out a few hours faster, the frost potential will extend farther south. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018 Confidence continues to be high for the extended...with several frost opportunities with a slow warming trend. The models continue to indicate a west to northwest flow over the region at the start of the extended. There is a trough indicated for passage to our north mainly Tuesday into Wednesday. This will push a weak cold front through. However it will be weak enough we could even call it a boundary with little change expected in temperature and low moisture will limit or even prevent any chances of rain. I can not rule out chances of frost through the extended until late in the week as we encounter a mild but certain warming trend through the end of the week. A long wave trough will extend from the western great lakes region to southern California will approach the area near the weeks end. This will be our next best chance of rain Friday into Friday night. The K index values approach the 30s Friday but no surface based instability with CAPE values of zero and LI's between positive between 10 and 20. Also the the LCL near 700mb...obviously with a major surface inversion...thunder chances seen slime to none. But things can chance especially that far out. This system should depart for the weekend keeping things mostly dry. As aforementioned there will be warming trend in the extended but temperatures should still remain below normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 MVFR ceilings should prevail through the afternoon throughout most of the region. Some scattering has occurred near to the north/northeast of KEVV and KOWB, but feel that the ceilings are likely to prevail even there for most of the afternoon. A storm system will bring widespread rains and deteriorating conditions from west to east across the region late this afternoon through Sunday morning. The forecast may be too slow with the onset of the rain. Guidance in general is not handling the current MVFR ceilings well, so confidence in subsequent trends downward is low. We may end up with just a drizzle in the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...PS LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 423 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-140930- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 423 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois and west Kentucky after midnight. No severe weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday evening. No severe weather is expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Monday. Mainly patchy frost is possible each morning from Tuesday through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. PS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Mississippi River. Some low-lying fields and woodlands near the river were inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 787505.