Scattered thunderstorms occurred ahead of a weak 500 mb trough over the Ozark Mountain region. One of the storms downed some trees near Cobden in Union County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms occurred ahead of a weak 500 mb trough over the Ozark Mountain region. One of the storms downed some trees near Cobden in Union County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 5:42 PM CST, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018 Near severe/severe convective activity developing along the Mississippi River around 215 pm this afternoon has multiple foci at the surface and upper levels this afternoon. At the surface, the LAPS data showing convection developing on theta-e axis arcing up the Mississippi river to Paducah, then working back along I-24/I-57 in extreme southern Illinois. Aloft, the new convection is oriented along a southwest-northeast trough axis with some stretching and deformation ongoing at this time and some overturning of higher theta-e air. The ESRL HRRR and HRRR high resolution convection allowing models appear to have a good handle on this convection, albeit 1-2 hours slower than expected. Most of this convection will generally diurnal in nature this evening, with some maintenance of showers in and near the trough axis aloft, which will be renewed as another area of low pressure aloft moves east across Missouri overnight. As the upper low converges and congeals over the Quad State region around daybreak, shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase over the WFO PAH forecast area, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Differential vorticity aloft, combined with differential surface heating and boundary layer moisture convergence, should ensure redevelopment of multi-cell storm clusters around the area. For now, have kept the best chances for rain over west Kentucky, southeast Illinois, and southwest Indiana through the evening on Thursday. As the low and the upper trough move east-northeast, rain chances will diminish, with ridging move into the area from the west on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018 Pattern will remain active in the long term. Favored a model consensus. Should be a lull in the activity Saturday with mid level s/wv ridging across the area. Once the ridge moves east, unsettled southwest flow aloft and a warm sector regime Sunday will return the chance of showers and storms. A front should enter the area Sunday night and continue south through Monday, maintaining the chance of convection. Little change Monday night through Wednesday, as the front is forecast to weaken and stall across the area. This regime is favorable for on and off convective chances. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018 This is primarily a convective forecast, with VFR conditions and light northeast winds expected outside of convection. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible at KEVV and KCGI this evening, but most of the activity will be over southern Illinois and farther west in southeast Missouri. Farther southeast across the region, the atmosphere appears to be rather stable this evening. An upper- level disturbance over northwest Arkansas this evening may eventually spread more convection over our region late tonight or Thursday, but confidence in timing and location preclude mentioning in the forecasts at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...CN AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 245 pm CDT Wed May 16 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 245 pm CDT Wed May 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Locally heavy rain and occasional lightning will be the primary concerns. A few strong, possibly severe storms may produce hail and damaging wind gusts. The best chance for isolated wind gusts approaching severe potential will be over the, Missouri BootHeel, the Purchase area of West Kentucky and southern Illinois, south of Route 13, during the middle and late afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is an almost daily chance of thunderstorms. Lightning and locally heavy rain will continue as the primary storm associated hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DH/CW/Smith
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 709 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018 MOZ109-110-170100- Butler MO-Stoddard MO- 709 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN STODDARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT... At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Qulin, or 10 miles northwest of Chalk Bluff Natural Area. This storm was nearly stationary. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Qulin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3652 9032 3663 9041 3682 9013 3667 9009 TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 228DEG 3KT 3663 9029 DRS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
907 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM TORNADO 5 WNW QULIN 36.63N 90.33W
05/16/2018 BUTLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
...LAND SPOUT...OCCURRED ALONG STATE HIGHWAY HH WITH
DAMAGE TO TIN ROOF ON A SHED AND POWER LINES DOWN.
&&
SMITTYThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:18 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Medium size trees were uprooted. The trees fell across a back road, blocking the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 749103.