Hail in Georgia, June 3, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A well-deserved drier and seasonably warm airmass arrives to begin
the work week.  Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
on Wednesday as a cold front settles into the area from the north.
Drier and seasonable conditions return for Thursday behind the
front before temperatures, humidity, and chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase Friday through Sunday as another cold front
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday: Another warm day has evolved across
northeast GA and the western Carolinas, as latest obs are
showing temperatures well into the mid to upper 80s. With an
upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region and it's
associated cold front draped down through eastern KY/TN and into
AL/LA, expect another late afternoon/evening of isolated to
scattered convection as the front propagates from west to east
this evening into tonight. Latest radar imagery already shows a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms that have developed
across the mountains and Upstate within the past hour. With
continued downslope flow, a developing leeside trough, SB CAPE
1500-2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear
up to 30 kts across portions of the area - the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms will continue across the western half
of the CWA into early this evening.

With the loss of daytime heating, expect convection to wane as it
nears the I-77 corridor this evening, though would not entirely rule
out a few showers/thunderstorms reaching the CLT area before all is
said and done. The cold front will push through tonight, allowing
for drier air to infiltrate in with sfc high pressure building in
from the west for the beginning of the work week. Expect Monday will
be the first rain-free day that we've seen in awhile across the area
with plenty of sunshine and temperatures around to just above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday: Dry and comparatively cool weather is
expected to continue through the first half of the short term,
as an upper trough axis persists along the East Coast. A weak
boundary dropping into the area from the north on Wednesday may
provide a focus for some isolated diurnal convection, although
guidance is in rather good agreement that moisture and
instability will be difficult to come by. Temps will be near to
slightly below normal through Tue night, warming to slightly
above normal Wed afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday: By Wednesday evening, the longwave trough
axis will be east of the region with the post-frontal surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  The surface
ridge axis will settle across the area into Thursday while heights
gradually build aloft as the Southern Plains heat ridge slowly
builds eastward.  Weak low-level flow and the upper-level ridge axis
overhead should work to limit convection on Thursday, and while the
official forecast keeps the area completely dry per the ECMWF and
Canadian solutions, the GFS is a little faster in veering surface
winds SEly and advecting enough flow and moisture to trigger some
afternoon convection.  Nevertheless, high temperatures are expected
to near normal on Thursday before the airmass begins to modify as
the upper-level ridge axis strengthens and southerly flow returns.
This should allow isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
to return for Friday afternoon as a strong shortwave drops into
the Midwest embedded within the NW flow aloft.  The associated
cold front will sag into the Ohio Valley on Saturday as a repeat
convective performance is expected across the area; however,
by Sunday, moisture pooling ahead of the front combined with the
proximity of the front and aforementioned shortwave energy will
bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region.  At this time there is decent model agreement on dropping
the front into the area from north to south near the end of the
period or Monday morning.  In the meantime, given the pattern,
high temperatures will be slightly above normal for the weekend
with increasing humidity.  As dewpoints approach 70 degrees,
low temperatures, therefore, will become somewhat uncomfortable
Friday night through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails at all TAF sites this
afternoon with WNW winds and a healthy, growing CU field across the
FA as seen from latest satellite imagery. With a cold front draped
down through eastern TN/KY and back into NW AL, convection has
already begun to fire along this boundary. Expect this activity to
move from west to east as the cold front begins pushing across the
FA later this afternoon, starting within the next few hours. Expect
convection will wane into the evening hours as it approaches KCLT
around 01/02Z. Flight restrictions may briefly drop to MVFR in any
heavy downpours/stronger storms that move over a TAF site. Behind
the front, VFR will prevail through the remainder of the valid TAF
period as NW/downslope winds will persist with drier air
infiltrating in. Sfc high pressure building in from the west will
dominate the weather pattern through at least Monday evening. With
elevated boundary layer winds, do not anticipate fog development
overnight.

Outlook: Increasing chances for VCSH/VCTS towards the end of the
week. Otherwise, expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
430 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will become severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Gusty winds, cloud to ground
lightning, and brief, heavy rainfall will be possible with any
storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

GAZ010-031930-
Rabun GA-
304 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clayton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Black Rock Mountain State Park and
Lakemont.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3493 8349 3496 8337 3483 8328 3478 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 331DEG 9KT 3489 8340

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

GAZ018-SCZ001-031945-
Stephens GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL STEPHENS AND
WESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Toccoa, or near Tallulah Gorge State Park, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Long Creek.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8332 3479 8332 3481 8329 3468 8312
      3461 8333 3468 8335 3469 8334 3470 8335
      3473 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 324DEG 13KT 3474 8330

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-031945-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Brevard, or 4 miles west of Caesars Head State Park,
moving southeast at 15 mph. Another thunderstorm was developing in
the southwest corner of Henderson County, southwest of Tuxedo, also
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Table Rock State Park, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Caesars Head State
Park, Jones Gap State Park, Dupont State Forest, Slater-Marietta,
Pumpkintown, Cleveland, Cedar Mountain and Sassafras Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8281 3524 8256 3510 8237 3495 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 315DEG 12KT 3512 8270

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
331 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

GAZ010-018-SCZ001-032000-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
331 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL STEPHENS...CENTRAL RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 4 miles southeast of Clayton, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Clayton, Tiger, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park,
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun and Long Creek.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8332 3477 8303 3458 8329 3468 8337
      3469 8334 3470 8335 3472 8335 3473 8338
      3473 8341 3482 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 317DEG 11KT 3484 8334

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

SCZ002-005-006-032030-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Greenville SC-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Easley, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Easley, Pickens, Greenville Downtown, Berea, Cherrydale Point, Furman
University, Welcome, West Greenville, Pumpkintown and Dacusville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8272 3501 8266 3501 8254 3500 8254
      3498 8253 3498 8255 3497 8253 3498 8249
      3487 8238 3475 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 331DEG 20KT 3491 8258

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             5 NNE AVALON            34.57N 83.17W
06/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       STEPHENS           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE GEORGIA SIDE OF
            LAKE HARTWELL.

&&

KRENTZ