Cold in Georgia, January 1 to 7, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1023 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and cold high pressure will remain across the area through
the coming week, keeping a very cold airmass entrenched over the
eastern part of the nation. Temperatures will be close to 20 degrees
below normal through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1010 pm Sunday: Still seeing some weak radar returns across
along and west of the Blue Ridge this evening, as a surface trough
draped across the southern Appalachians is resulting in weak upslope
flow into the mountains along the TN border, and into the eastern
escarpment of the Blue Ridge. Very dry air remains in place east of
the Blue Ridge, so precip is not reaching the ground there, but
patchy light precip continues to be reported above 2000 ft or so. IR
satellite imagery indicates cloud tops have continued to cool
across the southern Appalachians and vicinity throughout the
evening, and this appears to be sufficient to have changed lingering
precip over to -SN and flurries across the mtns. That being the
case, the criteria for a winter wx advisory are no longer being met
from a precipitation standpoint. However, considering the issues
with slick roads that have been experienced throughout the NC mtns,
particularly along the I-40 corridor since afternoon, and the fact
that temps are going to remain well below freezing for the next 24
hours, opted to extend a WSW for black ice through Monday morning
for much of the central and northern mtns. Otherwise, what light
precip is out there will gradually diminish over the next few hours,
as moisture depletes and flow continues to veer.

The other  concern tonight will be wind chills, which are expected
to be in the 0 to -20 F range across the high terrain. A Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect for much of the NC mtns. Lows will be
quite chilly, generally 10 to 20 deg below normal.

Monday, the arctic high will push in plenty of dry air and should
result in clearing skies by daybreak or not long after. Despite
sunshine, thicknesses support temps struggling to get to the upper
20s to mid 30s across most of the Piedmont, while the mountains
remain well below freezing thru the day. There will be enough
wind around as well to make it feel even colder. High temps will
be around 20 to 25 deg below normal. This is cold, but not record
cold for New Years Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Sunday: The cold wave will continue through
mid-week. Monday night might be the coldest one of the string, but
still not nearly cold enough to threaten any low temperatures. Wind
will be enough across the ridgetops to warrant the Wind Chill
Advisory by early Tuesday morning, but not enough to suggest
that it would be a problem away from the high elevations. The
new Advisory will not be issued at this time, but confidence is
high that another will be issued with the next fcst package. The
remainder of the forecast is a case of "move along...there's nothing
to see here." Temps remain well below normal Tuesday, and merely
ten degrees below normal Wednesday. Increasing clouds Tuesday night
will keep temps a bit warmer...still below normal...but wind chill
should not be a problem. On Wednesday, the models drop a strong
short wave down across the Deep South but the wavelength is too long
and cyclogenesis still appears like it will occur too far offshore
to impact the western Carolinas. So, unless the model guidance
goes horribly awry, we should remain cold and dry this far west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Sunday: With a coastal low offshore, the axis
of a broad upper trough across the eastern Conus will be digging
south into the Carolinas and further into Florida at the beginning
of the forecast period on Wednesday night. As conditions remain dry
with available moisture well east of the forecast area, expect
reinforced NW flow to infiltrate in as the coastal low moves
northeastward across the Atlantic throughout the day on Thursday.
Latest guidance continues to suggest the slightest chance for snow
flurries across the higher elevations Thursday afternoon/early
evening as a weak impulse rides along the upper trough, tapping into
moisture from the Great Lakes. However, confidence remains
fairly low attm.

Friday and through the weekend, dry and cold conditions will
prevail, with a potentially wetter pattern returning just beyond the
forecast period. As the upper trough shifts offshore on Friday,
arctic high pressure will build into the Southeast as flow aloft
becomes nearly zonal Saturday into Sunday, with high pressure
overhead. Temperatures will remain below normal throughout the
period, with overnight lows remain below freezing across the entire
forecast area. Afternoon highs will remain in the 30s across the
Upstate and Piedmont, into the teens and 20s across the NC mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: -FZRA and IFR conditions are expected to
continue off and on for the first couple of hours of the forecast
period, with improvement to VFR and an end to the precip expected by
around 03Z. The other terminals should see VFR stratocu in the
035-045 range continuing, with gradual clearing expected late
tonight into early Monday. Cannot completely rule out a brief period
of MVFR cigs, and perhaps a brief spit of snow or -FZDZ at the
non-mountain terminals this evening, but neither is likely.
Otherwise, mainly NE winds in the 5-10 kts range will gradually
become more northerly during the daylight hours Monday.

Outlook: Dry and cold conditions are expected from Monday night
through the period with no restrictions fcst.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     Low   55%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   78%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  96%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong arctic high pressure system arriving from the northwest
this week will reinforce very dry air across the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. As a result, surface relative humidity values
will drop into the 20s across the region on Monday, and the teens
and lower 20s on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the lack of recent
precipitation, 10-hr fuel moisture levels are averaging less than 10
percent over northeast GA, and the drying trend will continue
throughout the week. The combination of dry fuels along with the low
RH values will heighten fire danger. Transport winds and mixing
heights will remain relatively low, so smoke dispersion associated
with any fires could also be an issue.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1952     22 1928     54 1985     -1 1928
   KCLT      74 1985     29 1881     56 1973     10 1928
   KGSP      75 1952     28 1918     56 1952      8 1918

RECORDS FOR 01-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1952     12 1928     50 1930     -5 1928
   KCLT      78 1952     22 1928     57 1985      6 1928
                                        1966
   KGSP      74 1952     24 1928     55 1985      5 1928
                                        1966

RECORDS FOR 01-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 2004     15 1928     55 2000      2 1887
                                                    1879
   KCLT      74 2004     23 1887     55 1907      8 1887
   KGSP      76 1916     28 1979     53 2004      9 1900

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ033-
     048>053-059-065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST Monday for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

NCZ033-048>053-059-020315-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue. Dry
air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible. Bitter wind chills will return
during the early morning hours.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ058-062-020315-
Graham-Macon-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue. Dry
air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible. Bitter wind chills will return
during the early morning hours.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ065-501-503-505-020315-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

A cold arctic airmass will continue settling over the region
tonight. This will herald the onset of a cold wave pattern that will
linger throughout the week. Please see the latest Special Weather
Statement for advice on dealing with the cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will develop.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue. Dry
air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible. Bitter wind chills may return.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ063-064-020315-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold arctic airmass will continue settling over the region
tonight. This will herald the onset of a cold wave pattern that will
linger throughout the week. Please see the latest Special Weather
Statement for advice on dealing with the cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will develop.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Bitter wind chills will continue. Dry
air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible. Bitter wind chills may return.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-020315-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cold arctic airmass will continue settling over the region
tonight. This will herald the onset of a cold wave pattern that will
linger throughout the week. Please see the latest Special Weather
Statement for advice on dealing with the cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Dry air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ507-509-020315-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1006 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

A cold arctic airmass will continue settling over the region
tonight. This will herald the onset of a cold wave pattern that will
linger throughout the week. Please see the latest Special Weather
Statement for advice on dealing with the cold.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Cold wave likely.
..Tuesday...Cold wave likely. Dry air may also increase fire danger.
..Wednesday...Cold wave possible. Dry air may also increase fire
danger.
..Thursday...Cold wave possible.
..Friday...Cold wave possible.
..Saturday...Cold wave possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     SNOW             BANNER ELK              36.16N  81.87W
12/31/2017  E1.5 INCH        AVERY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            EARLIER FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MORE
            SNOW DURING EVENING AMOUNTING TO 1.5 INCHES. 10 DEGREES.
            ROADS HAVE IMPROVED SOME FROM EARLIER BUT STILL SLICK.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1125 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     SNOW             3 NW BANNER ELK         36.19N  81.91W
12/31/2017  E1.5 INCH        AVERY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BEECH MOUNTAIN HAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH A CURRENT
            TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES. WIND ABOUT 10MPH.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     SNOW             BAKERSVILLE             36.01N  82.16W
12/31/2017  E1.0 INCH        MITCHELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            HAD SOME SNOW BUT MOSTLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
            LIGHT RAIN EVENT. ROADS EXTREMELY SLICK AND ADVISING
            PEOPLE TO STAY OFF THE ROADS. ONE INCH MAXIMUM IN DEPTH.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FREEZING RAIN    CASHIERS                35.11N  83.10W
12/31/2017  E0.00 INCH       JACKSON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SHEET OF ICE ON NEARLY ALL SURFACES. ROADS ARE
            EXTREMELY SLICK. PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY
            OFF THE ROADS.

&&

OUTLAW