Afternoon showers and storms developed along the sea breezes along each coast. The Gulf coast sea breeze produced a shower that developed a funnel cloud over Naples.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Afternoon showers and storms developed along the sea breezes along each coast. The Gulf coast sea breeze produced a shower that developed a funnel cloud over Naples.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:09 PM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
209 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018
.AVIATION...
Widespread showers have enveloped South Florida today, so TEMPO
groups in place through the evening. There may be a brief lull
tonight before more widespread showers move in after 8-12z
Saturday (handled with SHRA). Isolated thunderstorms are possible,
but aside from after daybreak Saturday in Miami-Dade terminals,
probability of lightning is too low to warrant mention in the
TAFs. On and off CIG restrictions are expected through this
evening associated with the heavier showers, but more widespread
sub-VFR CIGS are likely late tonight and through the day Sunday as
the atmosphere continues to near toward complete saturation. ESE
wind around 10 KT through sunset, then 5-10 KT overnight,
increasing to 15 KT or so by Saturday afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Flood watch has been posted effective 12z Saturday through 0z
Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with locally
much higher amounts, are expected, and this may lead to flooding.
Additional information on this watch and subsequent forecast
updates will come later later this afternoon, but for now, see
MIAFFAMFL for information.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1121 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018/
UPDATE 2...
The tropical storm probabilities on newly formed Subtropical
Storm Alberto are 15 percent or less for all of South Florida.
Therefore, no updates are required at this time to the forecast
for South Florida.
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018/
UPDATE...
Scattered showers have moved inland with sea breeze from the
Atlantic. Expect coverage to increase through the day, especially
across the western interior, where locally heavy rainfall is most
likely. No significant changes in the forecast this morning.
Convective chances appear quite low based on 12z RAOB analysis.
The tropical disturbance east of the Yucatan Peninsula now has a
90 percent chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and
this feature, the main player in our holiday weekend weather, will
continue to be closely monitored.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern continues to be the probable development of
a tropical cyclone in the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico over the
next few days. The National Hurricane Center currently indicates a
70 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours
and a 90 percent chance of development within five days.
Some important differences remain among the numerical models and
ensembles regarding the eventual track and inner structure of the
cyclone, and how it interacts with a developing shortwave trough
over the western Gulf, but there is general agreement in the
disturbance initially moving N or NNE out of the Yucatan Channel
later tonight into the eastern or central Gulf, before bending
northwestward as it moves into the northern or northeastern Gulf
Sunday. The closest approach of the low to the SW FL Gulf Coast
will likely be Saturday night or Sunday morning.
A deep, long southerly fetch will set up over South Florida
tonight into the weekend, between the developing cyclone over the
Gulf and the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
This plume will be characterized by anomalously high atmospheric
moisture content, with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.4
inch range (90th-plus percentile of the climatological range for
late May). This will promote efficient warm rain processes and the
potential for excessive rainfall rates. Bands of heavy rain that
train over the same location will be a concern for significant
street flooding and may even threaten some structures in
vulnerable low-lying areas. Given the uncertainty in the location
and timing of the heaviest rain, it is still too early for a
Flood Watch to be issued, though one may be required in later
forecasts.
A low level jet of 35 to 45 kts is also likely to set up over S
FL late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast hodographs show a strong
anti-clockwise loop in the lower troposphere, with 0-1 km SREH
potentially exceeding 200 m2/s2 at times, along with sufficient
CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Therefore, isolated tornadoes will be a
concern with any discrete convective elements during that time
period.
On Monday, the cyclone's forward motion slows or stalls over the
deep south, keeping S FL in the southerly plume, so high chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue with ongoing
potential for locally heavy rain.
By mid-week, models begin to diverge on how quickly to kick out
or fill the surface cyclone, with some indication upper troughing
may continue into the Gulf with a west Atlantic high remaining in
place. This may continue the pattern of moist southerly flow and
elevated rain chances, but given the uncertainty, POPs are trended
gradually toward climatology by later in the week.
MARINE...
With the Gulf low moving south to north just west of our Gulf
waters, southeasterly winds over the local waters will increase
steadily tonight through Saturday over the local waters, peaking
out Saturday night into Sunday. There is the potential for
frequent gusts near or above tropical storm force in the offshore
Gulf waters. Hazardous seas may peak near 10 feet by Saturday
night in the offshore Gulf waters and near 7 feet in the Atlantic
waters.
BEACH FORECAST...
The risk of rip currents will increase at both the Atlantic
and Gulf beaches through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 73 80 74 83 / 50 80 60 80
Fort Lauderdale 75 80 76 83 / 60 80 70 80
Miami 74 80 76 83 / 70 80 70 80
Naples 71 81 73 85 / 70 90 70 80
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...23/SK
DISCUSSION...22/KS
MARINE...22/KS
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...22/KSHazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 228 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 260630- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 228 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH THIS WEEKEND... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially close to the Gulf coast. Cloud-to-ground lightning is the primary threat. Wind: Wind will increase on outer Gulf waters to 20 to 25 knots overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Flooding: Showers, some with locally heavy rainfall, will continue. Some of this rainfall may trigger flooding, particularly late tonight in the Miami area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A Flood watch has been issued Saturday and Sunday for all of South Florida. Deep tropical moisture will bring widespread showers, some with very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all South Florida waters through the weekend. Southeast wind of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to gale force will be hazardous to mariners. In addition, outer Gulf waters will have seas of 6 to 9 feet. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is likely on both Atlantic and Gulf beaches through the holiday weekend. Isolated tornadoes are possible Saturday and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. KONARIK
The Miami radar (KAMX), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A funnel cloud photo and video were reported via social media associated with a shower moving through the Naples area. The funnel did not touchdown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757093.