Drought in Florida, May 1 to 15, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
759 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.AVIATION...
NE-E wind 10-15 knots tonight, increasing to 15 knots with gusts
20-25 knots most of day on Tuesday, mainly from 14z onward. VFR
conditions to prevail, with periodic ceilings 4,000-5,000 ft and a
few SHRA east coast mainly on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Increased winds a couple of mph tonight to account for slight wind
surge behind the diffuse front passing through the Miami area this
evening, but mainly in the same breezy category along with the
Small Craft Advisory conditions Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay.
A couple of light showers in southern Miami-Dade County this
evening may produce a hundredth of an inch, with no mention in
forecast as these will not last more than a few minutes at any one
location. Additional showers possible Palm Beaches later tonight
as another batch of low level moisture arrives from the NE, but
all in all a nice night in store, albeit a little breezy.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018/

..Breezy Most of the Week with Showers Increasing Wednesday...

DISCUSSION...
NEAR-TERM (through early evening): diffuse front causing some
cloudiness and a couple of light showers along the coast of Palm
Beach County this afternoon, which could spread into parts of
Broward County this evening. For now will not include POPs for this
evening unless the showers increase in coverage. All in all, minor
impacts, if any, from these showers with a mainly dry and pleasant
evening in store across South Florida.

SHORT-TERM (Tonight through Thursday): deep longwave trough along
the U.S. eastern seaboard will move east as the overall mid/upper
level flow amplifies across the continental United States. A ridge
aloft will begin to set up over the western Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and amplify on Wednesday. Resulting NW-N mid-level flow over
Florida will keep deep moisture to our east/south, but with surface
high pressure strengthening over the western Atlantic, increasing
east wind and associated low level moisture will produce a few
passing showers mainly eastern half of the area late tonight and
Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is expected to
affect Florida on Wednesday, and combined with the increasing low
level moisture, should lead to an increase in coverage and
intensity of showers over the Atlantic waters and over the
southern Florida peninsula mainly south of Alligator Alley
beginning Tuesday night and mainly on Wednesday. Enough
instability should exist for at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters off Miami- Dade
County...and although thunderstorm chances are too low to mention
over land at this time, we'll continue to monitor trends over the
next day to determine whether thunder may need to be included over
parts of SE Florida. Rainfall totals are not forecast to be more
than about a half-inch as an areal average. North of Alligator
Alley, little if any rain is expected although there will be more
clouds compared to previous days. The shortwave will move south of
the area by Wednesday night, resulting in the moisture and
showers also shifting south of the area. Therefore, Thursday
should be a nicer and drier day area-wide. Temperatures will
average near to just slightly above average, with lows in the 60s
except lower 70s east coast, and highs in the upper 80s to near 90
interior and Gulf coast, and lower to mid 80s east coast.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through the upcoming weekend): the
amplified mid/upper level pattern continues during the latter part
of the week as a low pressure area cuts off over the eastern
Bahamas/eastern Cuba during this time period, with the upper ridge
extending SW-NE from the southern Gulf of Mexico to across the
Florida peninsula. While this pattern begins to take shape, mainly
dry weather should continue as the deep moisture remains close to
the cutoff low to our east. However, by Sunday the low and
associated moisture could come close enough to the SE Florida
coast to increase shower chances, especially if the farther west
ECMWF solution pans out. For now we have a chance of showers for
Sunday...with plenty of time to make adjustments for the weekend
weather pattern. Wind will likely subside in time for the weekend,
and temperatures will continue near to slightly above normal.

MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday for the Atlantic
waters and Biscayne Bay, with the most hazardous conditions
expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday along with increasing
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Small craft caution
statements valid for the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee
waters, although there could be brief periods of near- SCA
conditions in the outer Gulf waters over the next couple of
nights. Improving marine conditions expected for the end of the
week.

BEACH FORECAST...
With the increasing east wind, a high risk of rip currents will
commence by tomorrow and likely continue through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will slowly moderate Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly around 40 percent for lowest values in the
interior, then drop slightly to around 35-40 percent Thursday and
Friday. Although wind will increase Tuesday and Wednesday,
humidity values remaining mainly above critical values should
preclude significant fire weather threats.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  82  72  82 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  83  74  83 /  10  20  20  30
Miami            71  84  73  84 /  10  20  20  30
Naples           67  89  68  89 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...59/Molleda
AVIATION...59/Molleda

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
010445-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

...Hazardous Boating Conditions Developing in the Local Atlantic...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents All Atlantic Beaches...
...Enhanced Fire conditions This Afternoon Across the Western Interior...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida.

Wind: East-northeast winds will increase to around 20 knots over the
open Atlantic later this evening and overnight. Winds are expected to
increase to 15 to 20 knots over the offshore Gulf waters.

Fire Weather: There will be enhanced fire conditions this afternoon
due to low relative humidities across the western interior areas of
South Florida. While east-northeast winds will be gusty this
afternoon at around 10 mph, speeds are expected to remain below 15
mph.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance of a waterspout along a weak
boundary moving south across the palm beach waters this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Strong high pressure will remain to our north through the remainder
of the work week, leading to hazardous boating conditions in the
local Atlantic waters. The risk for rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches is expected to become high on Tuesday, with the risk
continuing into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.