Drought in Florida, January 9 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
759 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
An upper level low along the northern Gulf coast will slide
eastward overnight. At the surface, a warm front extends eastward
along the coast and just offshore. Expect occasional light showers
through the overnight hours, mainly west of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers with lesser chances to the east.
Guidance is rather bullish on fog tonight moving in from the
east, but with winds expected to stay around 5 mph and cloud
cover, the guidance may be a bit overdone and expect just patchy
fog at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Wednesday] Conditions are expected to gradually
deteriorate during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning with
lowering ceilings and perhaps some patchy fog. Expect IFR ceilings
at most terminals by daybreak with LIFR expected at VLD.
Conditions will be slow to improve during the day on Tuesday with
an upper level low across the northeast Gulf.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [231 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The +PV anomaly responsible for the amplification of an eastern
CONUS trough as well as the surface low along the northern Gulf
coast, is depicted quite well on WV imagery this afternoon. This
anomaly will drift southeast through the Gulf and eventually wind
up cutoff over the Florida Straits on Wednesday. On the backside
of this low we'll mostly be under synoptic scale descent through
the period, resulting in low rain chances. On Tuesday we'll
maintain chance PoPs across the southeast Big Bend where the tail
end of synoptic scale ascent, associated with the departing low,
will combine with convergent easterly low-level flow and possibly
a weak seabreeze. Wednesday PoPs in this area will only be slight
chance and be driven in the low levels by the easterly flow and
weak seabreeze circulation. The seabreeze is a result of warming
temperatures over land and much cooler temperatures in Apalachee
Bay. Expect highs to climb into the low to mid 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

A series of shortwaves will amplify a central CONUS trough to
start the period. This will increase rain chances beginning
Thursday night, and force a cold front through the region on
Friday. Through the end of the week above normal temperatures will
continue, with highs dropping back into the 50s and lows in at
least the lower 30s in the wake of the front.

.MARINE...

Advisory level conditions associated with an area of low pressure
in the Gulf will taper off through the night tonight. On and off
Cautionary conditions will still be possible through Tuesday as
the low continues southeastward. Thereafter, winds and seas will
gradually lower before increasing once again at the end of the
week as a cold front approaches.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts through tomorrow associated with an area of low
pressure in the Gulf will generally be a quarter of an inch or
less, possibly around a half inch at the coast. This will not
result in any flooding concerns. Late this week, a cold front will
approach and bring a chance for more widespread rain with average
amounts on the order of 1-2". Flooding is not expected with this
frontal system either.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  70  58  73  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
Panama City   56  68  59  69  60 /  70  30  10  10  10
Dothan        51  65  55  68  59 /  60  30  10  10  10
Albany        50  66  55  69  59 /  30  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      53  69  58  73  61 /  20  30  20  20  10
Cross City    54  72  60  76  61 /  20  40  20  20  10
Apalachicola  57  66  59  68  60 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan