Low pressure developed along the North Carolina coast during the afternoon of January 29, 2018. The low moved off the coast to a location east of the 40 N/70 W benchmark during the morning of January 30, 2018.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
Low pressure developed along the North Carolina coast during the afternoon of January 29, 2018. The low moved off the coast to a location east of the 40 N/70 W benchmark during the morning of January 30, 2018. Heavy snow bands were able to develop well north and west of the low pressure system across southeastern Connecticut due to a strong upper level jet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 3:50 PM EST, 6 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off Cape Hatteras, will pass well offshore tonight
and move into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday. High pressure
builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. A series of
frontal systems will then impact the area, the first Thursday
into Friday, and then another on Sunday. Each of these systems
will be followed by high pressure and a shot of cold air.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure will track along a frontal boundary tonight,
remaining well offshore tonight. There is a strong model
consensus that the low tracks east of the benchmark this
evening.
Latest hi-res models, 12z forecast guidance and current radar
trends, it indicating that the bulk of the precipitation remains
offshore. Any precipitation that does fall this afternoon will
be light. With temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s,
expect that any precipitation that develops before midnight
could fall as some light rain or a rain/snow mix. Colder air
aloft, moves in after midnight, allowing any precipitation to
change over to snow before ending. QPF amounts will be light and
any snowfall accumulations will remain below an inch. Will cap
POPs at chance.
Overnight lows fall into the middle and upper 20s, with near 30
in and around the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave approaches from the west on Tuesday,
which could provide some additional snow, mainly west of NYC. It
is possible the snow, could be in the form of snow showers. If
this does occur, a few snow squalls could potentially produce a
brief period of lower visibility and a quick coating of snow on
the ground. High temperatures rise into the lower and middle
30s.
Drier weather is expected Tuesday night as high pressure
ridging builds into the region. Lows Tuesday night fall into the
teens and lower 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure ridge shifts through the region on Wednesday with dry
weather and highs generally in the mid 30s. Low pressure then tracks
through SE Canada Wednesday night through Friday. Overrunning PCPN
will be possible late at night into Thursday morning mainly north
and west of the city. Chances increase further Thursday afternoon
with the rest of the tri-state area having a chance for PCPN. As for
PCPN type during this period, primarily rain for coastal areas and a
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible with
warm air aloft. A cold front associated with this weather system
pushes through Thursday night. Have gone with likely PoPs for this
period with rain in the evening and a mix of rain and snow during
the overnight hours. Light snow accumulations are expected.
A chance of lingering snow remains Friday morning, otherwise dry in
the afternoon with high pressure building in behind the cold front.
High pressure then keeps Saturday dry with below normal temperatures.
Another low pressure center is then progged to pass to the north -
this time tracking along the St. Lawrence River Valley Saturday
night and Sunday. Antecedent airmass is colder this time around, so
in spite of a SW flow ahead of a cold front that passes through
Sunday into Sunday night, it looks like at this point that PCPN
types would favor more on the wintry side. How far this cold front
moves offshore is still in question as well as whether or not a wave
of low pressure forms along the front and brings some PCPN to the
area during Monday. Will go with dry weather for Monday and wait and
see how models trend before introducing PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure develops south and east tonight and passes well
offshore on Tuesday.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Ceilings 030-035 are likely
across Long Island and southeast Connecticut and possibly into city
terminals briefly this evening. MVFR is also possible tonight across
Long Island and southern Connecticut in light snow. Much of the
light snow is expected to stay east of the city terminals overnight.
NE winds 10-15 with gusts generally around 20 kt through this
evening. Gusts may increase into the lower 20s near the coast this
evening. Gusts should gradually diminish overnight. Winds back
towards the N Tuesday morning, with speeds 10 kt or less.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be more occasional than forecast. Cigs
around 030-035 possible this evening. -SN should largely stay to the
east of the terminal tonight.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be more occasional than forecast. Cigs
around 030-035 possible this evening. -SN should largely stay to the
east of the terminal tonight.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may be more occasional than forecast. Cigs
around 030-035 possible this evening. -SN should largely stay to the
east of the terminal tonight.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be more occasional than forecast. Cigs
around 030-035 possible this evening. -SN should largely stay to the
east of the terminal tonight.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts could be more occasional today.
KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be more occasional than forecast. Cigs
around 025-035 possible this evening. Light snow this evening could
end up passing east of the terminal.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday Afternoon-Night...Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20KT at night.
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR...Slight chance of wintry mix inland and
.Thursday night-Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain or snow. NW gusts
15-20KT on Friday.
.Saturday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the area
waters. The only exception is NY Harbor and western LI Harbor,
where it now appears to be hard to get frequent gusts to 25 kt.
The SCA for those two locations has been cancelled. For the rest
of the non-ocean waters, a SCA will remain up through tonight as
gusts reach 25 kt as low pressure passes nearby. On the Ocean,
SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday night as seas remain
above 5 ft and winds gusts are up around 25kt. A few gusts may
come close to gale force on the far eastern ocean waters,
however confidence at this time is low.
SCA conds continue into a portion of Wednesday with a brief period
of sub-advisory conditions during the afternoon and evening hours.
Winds and seas then pick up again Wednesday night into Thursday with
a returns to SCA conds for at least the ocean waters. Periods of SCA
conds will then occur through Friday night. A high pressure ridge
should then provide relatively tranquil conditions on all waters
during Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of an approaching full moon, high astronomical
tides, and the passage of low pressure to the south and east
tonight into Tuesday will result in minor coastal flooding
around the time of high tide Tuesday morning. A surge of 1 to 1
1/2 feet is expected. A blend of guidances was used, with the
most susceptible area being the south shore bays of Western
LI/Queens and Lower HY harbor, and western LI sound, with brief
isolated imapcts elsewhere.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ071-078-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
EQUIPMENT...<!doctype html>
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather, 2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media reported 3 to 5 inches of snow.
Social media reported 3 to 5 inches of snow.
CoCoRaHS observers reported 7 inches of snowfall in Stonington. Similar snowfall amounts were observed in nearby Tolland County Connecticut and Washington County Rhode Island.
Trained spotters reported 6 inches of snowfall in New London. Similar snowfall amounts were observed in nearby southern Washington County Rhode Island.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Connecticut in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Connecticut, January 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 737561, 737562, 735929, 735930.