A wildfire began from unknown causes approximately 23 miles north of Craig.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from unknown causes approximately 23 miles north of Craig.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 9:34 PM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1034 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 353 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Today is a calmer day in the wind and heat department compared to the last few days, with our CWA between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north. This is allowing for a westerly flow aloft, which is transporting smoke from existing fires across southwest Colorado and eastern Utah to the east. Winds will remain breezy at times this afternoon largely within the 20 to 25 mph range. Conditions remain hazy in the Grand Valley this afternoon due to wildfire smoke from the Trail Mountain Wildfire southwest of Price, Utah. The experimental HRRR smoke model indicates this smoke reaching the Grand Valley late this afternoon and evening and spreading east across the I-70 corridor towards Vail overnight by Tuesday morning. It will generally be hazy so included patchy smoke in the forecast through noon Tuesday. Regarding the smoke from the 416 and Burro Wildfires over the SW San Juans, this smoke is moving quickly to the east this afternoon. Expecting this smoke to once again drift southward this evening as downsloping winds take smoke into the Animas Valley, including Durango, all the way to the New Mexico state line. Visibilities are expected to lower below a quarter mile at times through the overnight hours into late Tuesday morning, so issued another Dense Smoke Advisory for the SW San Juans and Animas River Basin from 9 pm this evening through noon Tuesday. Temperatures will be right around normal today but will quickly rebound to about 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday with H7 temps rising back to 17C to 19C, as high pressure shifts to the southeast and shifts the prevailing upper level winds to the southwest. The southwest winds aloft may help push smoke northward out of the Grand Valley and I-70 corridor Tuesday afternoon as upslope flow also takes place. However, the close proximity of the intense fires in SW Colorado should keep smoke in the forecast with another Dense Smoke Advisory possible Tuesday night as typical downsloping winds take smoke southward into the southern valleys once again. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 353 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Hot and dry conditions will continue Wednesday into Thursday, with the models, especially the GFS, hinting at moisture slowly increasing from the southwest as the high shifts further east with a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Precipitable Water (PW) values increase to 0.75 inches over southern Utah by late Wednesday with this moisture moving into western Colorado by Thursday. Moisture will increase more late Friday with values of 0.75 and above across much of the area with values near an inch over the Four Corners. Saturday looks like the wettest day with PW values above an inch across much of the area. Embedded disturbances move through the southwest flow Wednesday through the weekend, acting as a trigger mechanism on any moisture and instability to generate storms. Much of the moisture will remain at the mid and high levels (mainly above 500 mb) until late Friday into Saturday when the low levels begin to moisten up. What this means is that any storms that form in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe will be mainly high based, with dry lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. This translates to potential new wildfire starts with any outflow winds leading to erratic behavior on already existing fires. Better chances of wetting rains will occur late Friday into the weekend, as remnants from Hurricane Bud off the Baja Peninsula get directed northward towards the Four Corners region and across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The ECMWF is on board with this latter onset of moisture late Friday into the weekend as the PacNW trough digs down the west coast with the high pressure ridge amplified over the central Plains and Midwest, allowing for a more direct southerly feed of sub-tropical moisture. The EC wants to hang onto this moisture through Monday, while the GFS wants to dry things out Sunday into Monday. Models tend to want to dry things out too quickly so leaning towards the EC in terms of the moisture hanging around through much of the weekend. The long range models look promising for wetter and more unsettled conditions heading into next week and next month even. Confidence is medium in this moisture increase, but low on the timing of how soon we will see wetting rains. Any moisture will be good to provide some relief from the already dry and hot conditions and help with any existing or new wildfires, but the unfortunate part is the dry lightning threat with the initial onset before the lower atmosphere moistens up by this weekend. Temperatures are projected to be much cooler this weekend with this moisture increase, with values near to a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1028 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. An exception will be at KDRO where smoke from the ongoing 416 Wildfire will continue drifting southward and downvalley to Durango overnight. Visibilities should hover between 3 to 6 SM between 06Z and 17Z before winds shift and the smoke clears and moves back to the north. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon MDT Tuesday for COZ019-022. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...CC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 544 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-121200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 544 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Dense smoke from the 416 Fire will continue this morning for areas along Highway 550 south of Molas Pass, including Durango, towards the New Mexico state line and eastward towards Pagosa Spring. A dense smoke advisory will remain in effect through noon. Outside of smoke, high pressure builds in bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Flow becomes westerly as high pressure builds in Monday as the hot and dry conditions continue. From midweek onwards, the chance for precipitation increases into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Fourmile Fire began from unknown causes approximately 23 miles north of Craig and grew to a total of 500 acres before it was contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757896.