A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 30 miles south of Rangely.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 30 miles south of Rangely.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 10:47 AM MST, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1147 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Satellite imagery at this hour not showing much in the way of sensible weather. A few mid level clouds can be found across central Utah while Colorado is mostly cloud-free. Models remain in good agreement that northwesterly flow will usher in drier air to the region. Forecast PWATs range from .25 to .5 inches from about noon onwards which should cause a noticeable decrease in convection. The NAMNEST, which has done well with convection lately, shows some convection firing shortly after noon and favoring the central mountains, and to a lesser extent, the San Juans. Coverage looks much less than seen over the past few days and the convection that does form will likely be the pop and drop variety. Gusty outflow winds will remain the biggest concern from any convection that forms. High pressure will remain firmly anchored over the Great Basin keeping our flow northwesterly to northerly on Monday. Dry conditions will remain in place with models showing almost no convection over the forecast area. Forecast follows suit with plenty of sunshine expected and hot temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 The center of the area of high pressure will remain situated across the southern Great Basin through midweek. This will keep conditions fairly dry, though residual moisture and daytime heating could allow for a stray afternoon thunderstorm to develop over the southern mountains. Temperatures will remain above normal during this time with the lower valleys in southeast Utah very likely jumping back into the triple digits. An upper level trough will elongate off the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, flattening the axis of the high slightly as the center pushes back towards southern Arizona/New Mexico. Meanwhile, another deep and broad trough will encompass the eastern CONUS. As a result of this synoptic pattern, the extended forecast models are showing a trail of subtropical moisture streaming into the region late next week. Of course, any movement of the high further east could cut off this tap of monsoonal moisture so the long term PoP grids remain on the conservative side with isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms confined to mountainous areas from Thursday onwards. Temperatures will remain above normal with not much fluctuation from day to day. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Wind gusts are the main concern today at TAF sites. Gusts to 30 kts expected across NE Utah and NW Colorado late this afternoon and early this evening. Kept VCTS out of TAFs for now but will amend if development starts or there is short term model support. With drying mid levels, not confident on storms within 10 miles of TAF sites at this time. VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, with the exception if a strong isolated storm develops. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 An 80 kt jet streak will move across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado this afternoon. As this occurs, deep mixing will reach nearly 400mb and tap into the stronger jet streak winds aloft. This will translate into surface wind gusts hovering right around 25MPH this afternoon under the jet streak. Humidities look to remain in the low teens. For these reasons, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for CO fire zones 200 and 202 and UT fire zones 486 and 487 from 1PM through 8PM this afternoon and evening. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202. UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...JAM FIRE WEATHER...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 531 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-301200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 531 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Drier air will move in today causing convection to make a noticeable downturn. A few showers and storms are possible over the central mountains and San Juans but coverage will be less than seen lately. A jet streak will move over northern portions of the forecast area today and bring some gusty winds to the surface. These winds, along with low humidities, will create critical fire weather conditions so a Red Flag Warning has been issued. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Dry conditions remain over the area causing almost no convection though a stray shower or storm over higher terrain is always possible. Moisture returns Wednesday as does more widespread convection. This trend will continue into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Red Canyon Fire began due to lightning ignition about 30 miles south of Rangely and grew to a total of 5,722 acres before it was contained in mid August.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 766243.