A wildfire began from unknown causes 75 miles southwest of Craig.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from unknown causes 75 miles southwest of Craig.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 10:33 PM MST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1133 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Current mesoanalysis is depicting very weak CAPE over SW Colorado and NE Utah with Precipitable Water (PW) values between 0.5 and 0.6 inches across these areas. The deeper moisture is still hanging out in the Desert Southwest extending as far north and east as southwest Utah. This is evident in the trends so far today. Persistent mid and high level cloud cover this morning across much of the region has inhibited convective development with some virga showers present underneath across much of the area. This has also kept our temperatures down and chances of reaching our previously forecasted high temperatures appears slim, so adjusted the max temps and PoPs down accordingly. The exception to this is areas on the edge of the cloud shield and where the sun has allowed for more surface heating. Storms developed over the San Juans along the southern fringes of the ridges and across eastern Uintas. There has been frequent lightning with the San Juan storms, but mostly in cloud and some light to moderate rain. However, low levels still remain fairly dry today with RH in the teens for the most part with a few exceptions, in areas of showers where the RH is in the 20s. As cloud cover spreads further south in this northwesterly flow, anticipating some stabilization which will inhibit cumulus growth late this afternoon into the evening and put convection to bed for the night after the sun sets. Already seeing this trend occurring as storms down south are having a tough time sustaining themselves as they shift further south off the terrain. On the other hand, plenty of smoke is hanging around as it was trapped under inversions overnight and the persistent cloud cover has allowed these inversions to persist across much of the area, keeping the smoke fairly stagnant. The smoke is being transported from the wildfires in California clockwise around the area of high pressure, situated to our southwest over Arizona, and into our CWA. Smoke from local wildfires burning across western Colorado is not helping matters as these areas downstream to the south and southeast of the fires are seeing worse conditions due to smoke. The latest HRRR model is showing this smoke persisting through at least Thursday night, so adjusted the forecast to reflect this. The forecast models seem to have backed off somewhat on the next moisture push. A trough of low pressure moves in over the Pacific NW and suppresses this ridge of high pressure southward, causing it to also elongate. This shifts our flow to a more westerly flow Thursday, which allows better moisture to arrive from the west. PW values are projected to increase above 0.75 inches by Thursday afternoon and above an inch by Thursday evening across portions of the area, particularly eastern Utah and extreme western Colorado. A shortwave will move through the northern and central portions of the area Thursday evening, resulting in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Due to the late arrival of the shortwave and better moisture, the model QPF follows suit and indicates a later start to convection by late afternoon. There is also a good chance of nocturnal convection lasting overnight with the passing shortwave. Gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning remain biggest concerns but the increase in moisture will also lead to better chances of brief moderate to heavy rain. The models have not been consistent with placement of showers and have really backed off on QPF amounts, so am not confident enough to hoist any Flash Flood Watch for the burn scar areas. Thinking this may be more localized with storm activity more scattered in coverage, with the bulk of activity happening late in the day. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 The Pacific NW trough continues pushing across the northern Rockies Friday, leading to continued increase in moisture from the west. Expecting Friday to be the peak in any moisture and best chances and coverage of thunderstorm activity. However, a big concern is that when the shortwave disturbances move through in the overnight periods, which is the case Thursday night into Friday morning, there tends to be too much convective debris or cloud cover in the morning that inhibits convection until much later in the day. This looks to be the case Friday as the models are showing a later start to convection once again. However, better forcing and instability will be over the forecast area Friday with our CWA in the left exit region of the upper level jet. A more robust shortwave looks to move through Friday evening, leading to a better increase in thunderstorm activity favoring the evening and overnight periods. Built the PoP grids to reflect this trend and it makes sense given the later start due to morning cloud cover. Lowered max temps as well due to the increased clouds and showers, but still kept them above normal. Friday also appears the better day to see storms impacting the valleys late in the day and a better chance of heavy rain. Flash flooding potential over recent burn scars will have to be monitored as well as trends in model QPF, but models do appear to have backed off in the PoP department, so not as confident yet to issue any watches. Drier air moves back in by Saturday for a downturn in convection. Still enough moisture looks to be recycled under the high to result in afternoon storms mainly over the higher terrain. The high makes a subtle shift eastward by Sunday, with a southwest flow developing, allowing for an increase in moisture and storm potential. Confidence though is not as high for Sunday as the models have not been consistent with this trend. The models are coming into better agreement though on the westward shift of the high pressure by early next week and the ridge building strong, allowing much drier air to encompass the region from the north, leading to a downturn in storm activity for next week and a resultant warming of daytime temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 Smoky and hazy conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with very active local and national fires. VFR conditions should be the prevailing conditions, but it is possible MVFR conditions could develop during the morning or daytime on Thursday. With a weather disturbance moving in tomorrow night, smoke may scour out a bit with hopefully some rain clearing particulates out temporarily. The chance of thunderstorms will persist past sunset Thursday night and into the nighttime hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 334 AM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-020945- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 334 AM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will return to the higher terrain of Utah and Colorado today with a threat of heavy downpours and some lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Moisture will peak over the western slope on Thursday with higher chances of thunderstorms across the region. Gusty winds, heavy downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Lone Mountain Fire began from unknown causes 75 miles southwest of Craig and grew to a total 495 acres before it was contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 766246.