Heavy rain, falling over the Thomas Fire burn scar, resulted in significant mud and debris flows around the community of Montecito. Rain gauges in the area indicating rainfall rates exceeding the USGS thresholds for both 30 minute and 1 hour rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOX wrote it up.
Heavy rain, falling over the Thomas Fire burn scar, resulted in significant mud and debris flows around the community of Montecito. Rain gauges in the area indicating rainfall rates exceeding the USGS thresholds for both 30 minute and 1 hour rainfall. The most significant mud and debris flow occurred along Bella Vista Drive, near Romero Canyon Road.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 2:51 AM PST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
251 AM PST Fri Mar 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
01/702 PM
A cold front will bring rain and mountain snow, and gusty south
winds to Southwest California tonight into Saturday. Period of
moderate to locally heavy rain will move from northwest to
southeast across the area tonight through Friday afternoon.
Showers will then persist through Saturday afternoon. Dry and
warmer conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
increasing clouds and a slight chance of rain north of Point
Conception on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...
02/235 AM
...UPDATE...
A cold 521 DM upper low is JUST to the west of Portland. The main
cold front bisects SBA county. There is a post frontal trof
that is just moving into SLO county. As expected the flatlands are
not getting too much rain at all but the low level southerly is
creating quite a bit of rain across the coastal slopes. The
heaviest rain right now is over the Santa Ynez range where
rainfall rates are hitting .5 to .55 inch per hour rates. The
front will move to the east through the rest of the morning and
these rates will continue across the VTA and LA counties as the
front slides over. Rainfall for the coastal slopes still looks on
track for 2 to 3 inches with the preponderance of this amount
falling this morning. The flatlands will likely have much less
rainfall maybe a half inch to three quarters of an inch.
Rain will turn to showers this afternoon behind the front. This is
a pretty potent post frontal trof associated with this system and
there will be plenty of shower activity this afternoon and
evening.
Radar shows the snow level right between 5000 and 6000 feet and
the LA and VTA mtns will see quite a bit of snow. The LA mtns will
see 8 to 12 inches with local 18 inch amounts at the resort
levels. The VTA mtns will see a little less snowfall. The snow
level is high enough to keep the major mtn passed snow free.
The shower activity will continue into Saturday as the large upper
low over Oregon throws numerous short waves over the area. The
shower activity and the clouds will begin to decrease later in the
afternoon.
Showers will linger in the mtns Saturday night but the rest of the
area should be dry with clearing skies.
High pressure will clear things out on Sunday. Sfc high pressure
will build in to the north and north winds will move over the
area.
Temps will continue to much below normal through the period. The
coasts and vlys will only see highs in the 50s today and Saturday
with only minimal warming into the lower 60s on Sunday despite the
sunshine.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
02/249 AM
Both the GFS and the EC agree on the extended period. Both show
ridging Monday through Wednesday. Both have good offshore flow on
Monday and it looks like there will be a Santa Ana wind event with
low end wind advisory gusts.
There will be some morning offshore canyon winds both Tue and Wed
but there should not be a need for any wind advisories.
After quite a long stretch of below normal max temps there will be
a very nice jump in temps and all three days will have above
normal temps. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day where max temps
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal and a few of the warmest area
will see 80 degrees.
There is some disagreement on the Wednesday forecast but not as
much as before. The GFS no longer has any rain. But it does have
more onshore flow and clouds which translates to much cooler temps
than the EC. Did not go all the way to the EC but did remove the
rain and warmed up the temps from the previous forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
02/0607Z
At 0530Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.
Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF package. Most airfields will
have IFR/MVFR conditions with rain and showers during most if not
all the forecast period. However, the timing between flight cats may
be off +/- an hour or two. For KWJF and KPMD, MVFR cigs are expected
about 12Z-18Z, but this timing may also be off +/- an hour or two.
Gusty S to SE winds will prevail at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KSBA and KOXR
at times overnight as well. Strong and gusty SW winds will persist
tonight thru Fri evening at KPMD and KWJF.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. MVFR conditions with
rain and showers will prevail aft about 08Z and persist thru Fri
night, altho there is a 50 percent chance of IFR conditions
developing around 09Z Fri night. However, the timing between
flight cats may be off +/- an hour or two.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. MVFR conditions with
rain and showers will prevail aft about 08Z and persist thru Fri
evening. However, the timing between flight cats may be off +/- an
hour or two.
&&
.MARINE...
02/236 AM
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Southwest winds will remain gusty but below SCA level
today through Saturday morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA
winds developing late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
A northwest swell will move into the waters on Saturday, rising to
10 to 12 feet at 14 seconds, then subsiding by Sunday morning.
Quiet conditions are expected through Monday, with a 20% chance of
SCA developing near Point Conception on Tuesday.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, a northwest swell will
build to around 10 feet tonight and persist through Saturday.
There is a 30% chance of SCA wind gusts Saturday evening, then
conditions should remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Concpetion, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds Saturday afternoon/evening, otherwise no
issues with SCA conditions for the remainder of the period.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this morning for
zones 34>38-51. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM
PST Sunday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Flash Flood Watch in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for
zones 36-39-40-44-52-53. (See LAXFFALOX).
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Saturday for
zone 52. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 4 PM PST Saturday for
zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX).
Flash Flood Watch in effect through this afternoon for zones
54-547. (See LAXFFALOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone
59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).
No significant hazards expected.
&&
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Smith
weather.gov/losangelesThe Los Angeles radar (KVTX), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:19 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
California Highway Patrol reported significant mud and debris flows near the community of Montecito. Along Bella Vista Drive, near Romero Canyon Road, a 12-14 foot wide mud and debris flow was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760953.