California, 2018

Debris Flow and Flooding in California, December 16 to 17, 2018

December 16 to 17, 2018 · NWS HNX · 4 events in 3 counties and zones

A cold front that was associated with a moist upper trough pushed across central California on December 17. This system brought moderate to locally heavy rainfall from Fresno County northward the late evening of December through the morning of December 17 where several stations reported a half inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall, and there were several reports of mainly nuisance flooding…

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HNX wrote it up.

A cold front that was associated with a moist upper trough pushed across central California on December 17. This system brought moderate to locally heavy rainfall from Fresno County northward the late evening of December through the morning of December 17 where several stations reported a half inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall, and there were several reports of mainly nuisance flooding during this time period. The precipitation mainly fell as snow above 6500 feet where several stations in the Southern Sierra Nevada north of Fresno County picked up between 3 and 6 inches of new snow. Further south the rainfall was less plentiful with most locations receiving between a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain by the time the precipitation ended by early afternoon on December 17.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 5:15 PM PST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 16, 5:15 PM PST, 4 hours 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
515 PM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

...Updated Air Quality Section...

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will move into and across the
Central California Interior tonight and Monday bringing rain
and mountain snow to most areas. High pressure will then
build over the West Coast through much of the upcoming week
for dry and warmer weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a classic cloud signature
over the area with thicker clouds over the northwest part of the
forecast area and nearly cloud skies over most of Kern County.
Regional radars show light precipitation moving into the Bay Area
east to Stockton and Modesto but thus far nothing any farther
south. As for movement of the incoming low pressure system, water
vapor imagery shows the main frontal band aligned nearly north to
south along the coast with clouds and precipitation moving
southwest to northeast along this boundary.

With the north to south orientation of the front, movement to the
east will be slow initially and the latest high resolution rapid
refresh model generates some rain in Western Merced County after 6
pm with the bulk of precipitation arriving after 8 pm and ending
around sunrise. Same model drives the front southeast through the
overnight hours with lingering showers noted through Monday
morning. Instability will increase over Merced, Madera and Fresno
Counties later tonight in the wake of the front as colder air
aloft arrives and given convective parameters including negative
lifted indices and in coordination with Storm Prediction Centers
general thunderstorm risk for the area, a few thunderstorms seem
and good bet over this area. Not much threat of thunder to the
south and east as the instability will lift northeast pretty
rapidly.

As for winter weather, snow accumulations of 9-12 inches are
generated by the latest qpf forecasts and this matches up really
well with the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow levels look to fall to
around 6000-6500 feet for the bulk of the precipitation evening
with some areas seeing some minor accumulation down to around 5500
feet in Yosemite Park in the colder, more unstable air.

All precipitation is expected to come to an end Monday night.
Models then are in good agreement in building a high pressure
ridge over the region Tuesday through Thursday for warming and
drying weather. Based on how much additional rain falls in the fog
prone San Joaquin Valley, low visibilities may become an issue as
early as Tuesday morning Wednesday and Thursday the days most
likely to have persistent dense fog. The ridge does weaken as a
decaying trough of low pressure moves across far Northern
California on Friday. This looks to be followed by a dry northwest
flow pattern in the big travel pre Christmas weekend next week.

Taking a quick look at any white Christmas possibilities, as of
today the long range has some promise in the mountains of Northern
California however for us down this far south...it looks dry for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR in showers/mist for the San Joaquin Valley along with mountain
obscuring IFR conditions across the Sierra Nevada and Kern County
Mountains becoming a possibility after 03Z Monday. Over the
desert...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday December 17 2018... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Monday Caz093.

&&

public...Dudley
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...Dudley

weather.gov/hanford

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.

Debris Flow, Merced

When
December 16, 9:42 PM PST to 11:42 PM PST
Where
Merced County, 12.06 mi W of Santa Nella to 12.03 mi W of Santa Nella
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
37.067, -121.218

California Highway Patrol reported large rocks on on State Route 152 at Dinosaur Point.

Flood, Fresno

When
December 16, 10:08 PM PST to December 17, 12:08 AM PST
Where
Fresno County, 4.25 mi NW of Oxalis to 4.18 mi NW of Oxalis
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
36.967, -120.600

California Highway Patrol reported flooding at the intersection of Shain Ave. and Brannon Ave. near Dos Palos.

Flood, Merced

When
December 16, 10:10 PM PST to December 17, 12:10 AM PST
Where
Merced County, 1.52 mi E of Dos Palos to 1.62 mi ENE of Dos Palos
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
37.054, -120.603

California Highway Patrol reported flooding at the intersection of Indiana Rd. and Santa Rita Grade near Dos Palos.

Flood, Mariposa

When
December 17, 8:25 AM PST to 9:25 AM PST
Where
Mariposa County, 2.19 mi W of Mariposa to 2.17 mi W of Mariposa
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
37.480, -120.010

California Highway Patrol reported moving water on Yaqui Gulch road at 4900 block just to the south of State Route 140.

What these are

Debris Flow
A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.
Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 789825, 789822, 789823, 789824.