The Stone Wildfire was started by lightning around 0800 PDT on 08/15/18. As of the last report at 0330 PST on 08/30/2018, the fire covered 39387 acres and was 100 percent contained.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Stone Wildfire was started by lightning around 0800 PDT on 08/15/18. As of the last report at 0330 PST on 08/30/2018, the fire covered 39387 acres and was 100 percent contained. 2 structures were lost and 16.6 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 2:22 AM PST, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
322 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...Smoke coverage and intensity today is shown by
model guidance to be very similar to yesterday, so won't get into
a lot of detail here. Today we'll be focused on thunderstorm
potential. Moisture being squeezed northward between an upper
trough offshore and the upper high over the Four Corners is
arriving from the south early this morning. Radar is showing some
mostly weak echoes lifting northward into Modoc, eastern Siskiyou,
southern Klamath and Lake Counties, but in the last hour or so,
several cloud to ground lightning strikes have been observed from
a cell about half way between Tionesta and Canby south of Highway
139 in Modoc County. Another nice cluster of cells that could
crack out some lightning appears to be headed into eastern
Siskiyou County. Model soundings are showing cloud bases in these
areas up around 10000 feet AGL, so little or no rain is occurring
with any of these cells. This will continue to be the case this
morning as the moisture axis aloft shifts northward from about the
Cascade crest eastward. A Red Flag Warning is out for these areas
for isolated dry thunderstorms on very dry fuels and this is in
effect until 11 pm this evening.
Moisture will continue to expand west and northwestward this
afternoon and evening and some model guidance continues to
indicate thunderstorm potential during this time frame over the
interior west side. This includes areas from about the northern
half of western Siskiyou County north-northeastward across the
Siskiyou Mountains to the Cascade Foothills. Of course, there has
been a tremendous amount of smoke from the wildfires across the
region. Recent history has shown that convection has been
significantly suppressed due to the shading effects of the smoke
(which the model might not otherwise know is there and this
effectively limits instability). Convection allowing models
(HRRR, NAMnest, HiRes ARW/NMM) all keep activity from about the
Cascade Crest eastward this afternoon/evening. But, the 00z GFS
maintains there could be some cells that develop over the Siskiyou
Mountains and also eastern portions of the Umpqua Divide, then
propagate northward. Confidence isn't high enough here to upgrade
the fire weather watch, but we have pushed back the start time to
21z since it doesn't look like there is any threat before then.
This will allow the day shift to take a look at the 12z guidance
and see if we need to make any last minute upgrades or just
cancel it.
The upper trough will begin to move eastward tonight in response
to a potent short wave rounding its base near 40 N and 130 W. The
trough and associated short wave disturbance will move onshore and
through the area Thursday. This will likely generate another
round of thunderstorms with the best activity from the Cascade
crest eastward across northern Klamath and Lake Counties. Even
though those areas will stand the best chance at seeing
thunderstorms, a slight chance also exists back across the Umpqua
Divide and Jackson County to the Siskiyou Mountains. While
thunderstorms aren't expected farther south and east, gusty west
to southwest winds are expected to develop ahead of the trough
over portions of the east side and northern California. -Spilde
Beyond that from Tuesday afternoon's AFD, as the trough moves
over and then east of us Friday, conditions should stabilize, and
we've kept the forecast dry for Friday. However, a trough moving
through will probably bring gusty west winds, especially to east
side locations. Thus, we lose one threat (lightning) and add
another (wind).
Few changes were made to the extended forecast. A ridge moves in
behind the trough this weekend and that will bring hotter, drier
weather again. This also looks like a thermal trough setup which
means offshore (northeast) winds and poor night time humidity
recoveries in the coastal mountains. Models then show another
upper low coming in early next week, but this one will probably be
to our north, which is a dry, albeit cooler, weather pattern for
our area. -Wright
&&
.AVIATION...For the 15/06Z TAFs...Along the coast widespread
IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR visibilities will persist through
Wednesday with gradual erosion of coverage in the coastal valleys
during the late morning and afternoon.
Inland, for the Umpqua Basin, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the TAF period. Elsewhere inland, widespread smoke from area
wildfires is resulting in reduced visibilities. MVFR vsbys with
local IFR vsbys will persist through the TAF period.
Starting around 12Z, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Cascades eastward. This slight chance will expand west of the
Cascades across Siskiyou, Jackson, and eastern Douglas Counties late
in the day. -DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, 15 August 2018...Relatively
light winds and seas, along with coastal fog and low clouds, are
expected through tonight. Building northwest swell is expected
today, but conditions should stay below small craft advisory
levels. A thermal trough will redevelop along the coast on
Thursday, producing gusty north winds and steep seas into this
weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are likely, with
afternoon and evening gales possible Friday and Saturday south of
Cape Blanco. Conditions are expected to improve early next week.
-BPN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...As expected, moisture is arriving in the southerly
flow aloft at the mid and upper levels early this morning with
isolated cells producing cloud to ground lightning in fire zone
285 (Modoc) and 284 (eastern Siskiyou County). These will lift
northward into portions of Klamath and Lake Counties this morning
and may reach as far west as the Cascade crest. The RFW for these
areas continues and is in effect until 11 pm for dry
thunderstorms/abundant lightning on very dry fuels. Expect the
moist axis aloft to expand north and westward this afternoon and
evening and this may result in some thunderstorm activity over the
interior west side too. Confidence in thunderstorms in these
areas is lower due to multiple factors, one being differing model
solutions, but also coverage of wildfire smoke, which tends to
inhibit convection. The convection allowing models all keep the
activity from about the Cascade crest eastward this afternoon, but
the 00z GFS insists at least some isolated cells will form near
the Siskiyou Mountains/Umpqua Divide and propagate northward. We
still have a fire weather watch in effect, but have pushed back
the start time to 21z (2 pm PDT) since it doesn't look like much
will occur before then. This will give the day shift a chance to
look at the 12z guidance and make any last minute
upgrades/cancellations. Expect another round of gusty south winds
in the southern portion of the Shasta Valley near Weed this
afternoon/evening, but humidity should be up a bit compared to
yesterday.
We'll be taking a closer look today whether or not we'll need
another fire weather watch for Thursday's convection. Models are
still pinning the best chances from about the Cascade crest
eastward across northern Klamath and Lake Counties, though a slight
chance for thunder also exists back across the Umpqua Divide to
the Siskiyou Mountains. The upper trough will increase the
pressure gradient and wind aloft also increase Thursday, so gusty
west to southwest winds will develop in the afternoon/evening in
NE California and over the east side.
Dry weather will move in late this week into the weekend with a
period of offshore NE winds expected in the Siskiyous and Coast
Ranges Friday through Saturday night as a thermal trough develops
in northern California. This will lead to significant ridgetop
drying with poor to moderate overnight humidity recoveries for
many of those areas, including at least to some degree, the
Klondike/Taylor fire in western Josephine County. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ617-623>625.
Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through this
evening for ORZ617-621>623.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM PDT this afternoon through this
evening for CAZ280-281.
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Friday morning through
Saturday evening for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/BPNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Stone Wildfire was started by lightning around 0800 PDT on 08/15/18. As of the last report at 0330 PST on 08/30/2018, the fire covered 39387 acres and was 100 percent contained. 2 structures were lost and 16.6 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 766490.