Flood in Arkansas, January 1, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
555 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

.AVIATION...01/00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD, with just some high clouds
streaming acrs the region. Wl cont to see a NLY wind component
thru Mon, but speeds wl gradually dcrs. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 205 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017)
Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday
Satellite observations show the clouds clearing out nicely in
northern, central and southeast Arkansas. This will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon as much drier air works in from the
north/northeast.

1050mb surface high over the northern plains will drop southward over
the next couple of days. Gradient between the high and low pressure
off the coast will keep winds elevated over Arkansas tonight and
Monday. Low temperatures over the next two days will range from near
zero to the teens, with highs in most areas staying below 30
degrees.

With the significantly anomalous cold air in place, and the
elevated winds, wind chill values will be dangerously cold the next
few nights. The coldest values will range from zero to -10, with
some areas near the Missouri border possibly dropping below -10.
Wind chills near zero are possible all the way into southern
Arkansas. On Monday night/Tuesday morning, the winds will relax, but
temperatures will be colder. For this reason, we will be extending
the Wind Chill Advisory to cover the entire area through Tuesday.

The surface high will pass over the area on Tuesday, with
temperatures moderating beyond that, albeit slightly.

Long Term...Tuesday Night through Sunday
The extended forecast will continue to be characterized by cold, dry
air as both the upper level and surface pattern vary little through
the period. Aloft, deep troughing will be in place across the
eastern half of the country with ridging noted across the west.
Dominant surface high pressure systems will be in place north of the
state extending down over the area.

Temps will be a tad warmer on Wednesday, before another dry cold
front moves through and high pressure once again sets up shop over
the middle of the country. Even into Friday and Saturday as the high
shifts east, continued below normal temperatures will remain in
place. But, they will be warmer than temperatures expected early
this week.

Near the end of the long term, the pattern aloft flattens out a bit
and temperatures will moderate further. There is some indication
that an upper shortwave could pass through the middle of the country
and a weak system at the surface originating to our southwest may
help bring an end to the run of dry weather locally. But, this is
far from a guarantee as there are significant differences in long
term model solutions and confidence diminishes greatly in the day
7-8 timeframe.

Fire Weather...
No significant fire weather issues are expected over the next seven
days. Cold, dry air will keep afternoon humidity rather low, with
most days bottoming out below 30 percent. However, at this point 20
foot winds are expected to stay below critical thresholds. The next
chance of rain is not expected to be until late next weekend, when
humidity will increase ahead of an approaching system.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Independence-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-Stone.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1248 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011115-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1248 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Significantly colder air continues to make its way south into the
state. As winds pick up tonight and low temperatures fall to near
zero across the north to upper teens across the south, wind chill
values will be at dangerously low levels. By morning, expect wind
chills to be as cold as -15 across the north to single digits
across southern Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Well below average temperatures are in the forecast this week.
Readings in many areas will be 15 to more than 20 degrees
below seasonal normals. One round of Arctic air will hang
around through at least Tuesday, with another round arriving
later in the week.

Dangerous wind chills will continue Monday into Tuesday, especially
during the nighttime and morning hours. The lowest wind chill index
values will range from 5 above zero to 15 below zero.

Prolonged exposure to the elements for people and animals will be
hazardous. Impacts to infrastructure are also possible, especially
damage to plumbing from frozen pipes and fires caused by sub-
standard heating methods.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

COOPER/46/67