Training thunderstorms caused a slow build up of street flooding across portions of northeast Arkansas during the morning hours of August 16th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Training thunderstorms caused a slow build up of street flooding across portions of northeast Arkansas during the morning hours of August 16th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 5:22 AM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 622 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ Moderate to heavy precipitation is going on across the northern counties...where storms are likely to train for the next few hours. Three hourly rainfall amounts already approaching 3 inches across portions of Craighead and Greene Counties. An additional 1 to 2 inches would overfill ditches and cause minor street flooding. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion indicates a slight chance for flash flooding today. Farther south only occasional light sprinkles producing a trace have been tracking through the region. Current temperatures ranging from the mid 70s where precipitation is falling...to a few readings in the lows 80s in north Mississippi. Winds have been south at 5 to 10mph...with gusts approaching 30 mph in heavier convection. For today through Saturday...models are in good agreement that the Midsouth will remain unsettled with multiple periods of clouds and precipitation. This due to an active northwesterly upper flow. IR satellite showing current convection in the northern counties anchored in the base of a passing trough...some breaks are currently seen with this activity...so an extensive flood threat is not anticipated. CAMs show cloud tops warming after sunrise as well. Activity will likely re-fire in the northeastern counties after 12 pm...and again in the western counties this evening. Coverage will become more isolated late tonight. A stronger closed low sinking southeast over Nebraska will quickly begin affecting the region tomorrow through Saturday. This disturbance is expected to bring better rain chances over the central and southern Midsouth counties where rain is more welcome. Pockets of rainfall amounts of 5+ inches over the next three days can't be ruled out in the north...with the south generally in the 1-3 inch range. The region is under a marginal risk for severe storms today and tomorrow as well...with severe indices indicating the potential across the southern counties on Saturday. Plan on including both an isolated severe storm and localized flash flood wording in the morning hazardous weather outlook. Temperatures could be above seasonal normals today in the I-40 corridor and points south where more sun will be seen...in fact the NAM MOS shows a high of 97F in Memphis with heat indices topping 105F. Believe that is a bit to much...leaning closer to the GFS MOS of 90F. Over the north thicker cloud cover and rainfall will keep highs in the mid and upper 80s. Slightly cooler readings over the central and south for Friday and Saturday. Sunday through midweek...a third shortwave will track southeast from the northern Rockies...affecting more of the Midsouth on Monday then any other day. Rain chances will subside across the north on Sunday...with scattered coverage in the south. Temperatures near normal. Starting Sunday night the next complex of precipitation will slide east from the Ozarks and persist into Monday night as a cold front approaches the area. A drier airmass will slowly infiltrate the Midsouth on Tuesday suppressing convection to the southern counties. Wednesday and Thursday of next week appear to be dry and pleasantly mild. JAB .AVIATION...12Z TAFs Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase during the upcoming TAF cycle but remain highest near JBR and MKL. Overall, the focus for storms will shift South with time. Fairly high cloud bases should keep cigs VFR, though periods of MVFR or lower vis is possible for brief periods of time in association with the heavier rain and thunderstorms. Winds will remain from the South to Southwest, generally 5-10kt through the period. Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase area wide overnight. 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171015- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence- Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion- Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton- Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha- 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid- South today and tonight. The primary hazards will be gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall/flash-flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid- South Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The primary hazards will be gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall/flash-flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. JAB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread flooding across Marmaduke. Water 4 to 6 inches deep.
Total of 6.10 inches of rain over 10 hour period. Rainfall of 4.47 inches fell since 7 am with 1.63 inches between midnight and 7 am.
Rain of over 6 inches in 10 hours caused extensive street flooding, ponding and interruption of city services including trash pickup.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 777925, 777928, 777926.