Funnel Cloud in Arizona, October 14, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
258 PM MST Sun Oct 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will continue south of Interstate
40 this afternoon and evening. Overnight, a cold front sweeping
across the area from the north will deliver dry conditions and
breezy northeast winds. On Monday, chances for showers increase in
the vicninity of the White Mountains and eatern Mogollon Rim,
before spreading northwestward during the evening and overnight
hours. By Tuesday morning, accumulating snow will be possible
above 6000 feet along the Mogollon Rim from Flagstaff northward to
Jacob Lake. Cool and showery weather continues from Tuesday into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A surface cold front has pushed southward today,
and is currently located from Ash Fork to Flagstaff to Chinle. A
very dry airmass is visible behind the front, but enough moisture
and instability for scattered showers remains ahead of it. A
second front will sweep across the area from the north this
evening and overnight. This front will deliver breezy northeast
winds and another round of cold and dry air that will work its
way farther south before stalling out near the White Mountains.

On Monday, a mid-level closed low is forecast to develop at the
base of a shortwave trough over southwest Arizona. This will setup
a southeast to easterly wind that will draw moisture back into
the area. As a result, chances for showers will initially be
confined to the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim, but
will spread westward during the evening and overnight hours. In
addition, the moist easterly wind will overrun cold air dammed up
along the Mogollon Rim. This will bring 1 to 4 inches of snow
above 6000 feet from Happy Jack northward to Jacob Lake Monday
night/Tuesday morning. Accumulating snow will be possible above
8000 feet along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, so
Heber-Overgaard and Show Low should receive all rain.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, chances for showers continue as the
mid-level low remains locked in place over the state. Snow levels
will be a bit higher, but well below normal temperatures
remain. From Thursday onward, longer term model forecasts keep
cool and showery conditions in the forecast as an unsettled
weather pattern remains in place across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...A cold front moving southward this
evening will bring a wind shift from the north or northeast.
Scattered showers, MVFR conditions and a stray thunderstorm possible
along/ahead of the front, most prevalent south of a KFLG-KRQE line.
Most showers ending after 03Z with VFR conditions. Northeast winds
locally gusting to 25 kts from KGCN-KFLG-KSOW southward after 10Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On Monday, expect winter-like high temperatures and
breezy north-northeast winds behind a cold front. Look for a few
showers over the White Mountains. For Tuesday, a developing low
pressure system will result in a good chance of showers and snow in
the higher elevations. Remaining cold.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect below normal temperatures and a
continued threat of showers each day as the low remains parked over
Arizona.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff