A powerful storm force low developed and moved into the eastern Gulf on the afternoon and evening of 12/10. The low center just south of Yakutat had dropped to 967 MB and deepened to 960 MB making landfall near Cape St.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A powerful storm force low developed and moved into the eastern Gulf on the afternoon and evening of 12/10. The low center just south of Yakutat had dropped to 967 MB and deepened to 960 MB making landfall near Cape St. Elias later that evening. The associated front caused high winds for Prince of Wales Island and the Ketchikan areas. The highest wind gusts were measured at Salmon Landing near Ward Cove at 74 mph. Tree blowdowns were reported blocking roads, but no damage was reported to homes or infrastructure.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 2:53 PM AKST, 50 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A storm force front offshore of Southeast Alaska will
push into the Panhandle Mon night and weaken. A gale force front
will then slide E across the gulf Tue and move into the Panhandle
Tue evening. Outlook. A strong low will move into the central gulf
Wed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Yet another storm force front is giving Southeast
Alaska its best punch. Windy conditions are reported across
Southeast Alaska, except abnormally Skagway, where a parallel
gradient has neutralized the winds farther to the south. These
winds come with gusts of 40 to 55 mph, driving rain, and high
elevation heavy snow. Most areas have received rain rates of less
than a tenth of an inch per hour, but occasional moderate and
heavy rates are embedded. Lastly, this morning AK DOT reported up
to 4 inches of snow had already fallen at White Pass, and we are
looking for up to 17 inches storm total by the end of tonight. The
winter storm warning remains in effect through 5 AM tomorrow
morning.
A wave is forming well south of Prince of Wales Island and is
forecast to move north-northeast to the southern Panhandle
tonight. We considered a short order High Wind Warning, but given
strong stability with the front moving in aloft, we elected to
raise wind gusts to 55 mph but keep them below 60 mph. We also
elevated Clarence Strait to storm force 50 kt, which coordinates
very well with the 50-60 kt in Hecate Strait forecast by our
Canadian neighbors. Our winds will gradually relax from west to
east through tonight with most of the strongest winds occurring
late this afternoon and this evening.
Looking over the gulf behind the front, more unstable air will
bring a slight threat of thunderstorms beginning tonight and
spread to our beaches including Sitka and Ketchikan by Tuesday.
This air will spread inland of the Panhandle with stronger cold
air advection in the low levels Tuesday night. Unstable conditions
with a much cooler column could result in some snow showers late
Tuesday night with a mix getting into most all of the Panhandle.
We have indicated some light accumulations, but confidence is not
high, as convective regimes are usually more difficult to
forecast.
Little changes were made to the forecast Tuesday
night/Wednesday/Wednesday night other than the lowering snow
levels. Wednesday does bring a very strong low somewhere in the
central gulf. Where it tracks and how it evolves may affect are
wind and precipitation forecast mid-week. Thus, we see no reason
to change the forecast at this time.
Lastly we mention to subjects of poor confidence. The lighter
winds in Skagway are perilously close to busting through south
gust 40 mph. But we will allow them to steadily ramp up to more
confident levels Tuesday night as a ridge replaces the front. The
other item is Hyder. Temperatures have risen to 34 degrees and
snow changed over to rain. We foresee light winds tonight. It is
possible for a change back with some ramifications on snow
accumulation, but our current forecast supports no change at the
moment, so we go with rain.
We used NAM/GFS/NAMnest for changes to wind Monday night/Tuesday
and for changes to POP/QPF through Wednesday.
.LONG TERM/Wednesday through the weekend/...The long range
forecast remains very active with multiple strong low pressure
systems expected to enter the gulf.
Wednesday begins with a strong upper level trough pushing
northeast over the northern Pacific. A well developed surface low
pressure system will be present as well, and continue to
intensify as it pushes northeast into the south central gulf of
Alaska Wednesday. While the low intensifies, a substantial low
level just will develop on the south side of the low, with some
hints of nearly 100 knot winds in the lowest 2000 ft of the
atmosphere. There is potential for winds to develop to hurricane
force strength at the surface; however, with the uncertainty in
the track and ultimate intensity winds remain limited to strong
gales. These will likely see increases as the final path and
strength of the low becomes more certain. The current forecast
carries this low toward northern Baranof and Chichagof Island by
late Wednesday night. Additionally this storm may support snow
across the northern Panhandle and heavy precipitation rates will
accompany the low due to its convective nature.
Another strong upper level low pressure system will push across
the Pacific later this week and bring another strong low pressure
system into the gulf Saturday. This low looks to be yet another
strong one with a band of storm force winds likely to accompany
it.
Favored the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS to handle the low development on
Wednesday. While not incorporated into the decision making
process, the 00Z GFS remained in good agreement with its 18Z run
and 00Z ECMWF trended toward the stronger solutions held within
the NAM and GFS. For Friday through the rest of the period the
forecast remained unchanged with newest WPC guidance remaining in
good agreement with the existing forecast. Overall forecast
confidence is average in the long term.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ025>027.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019>021-023-024.
Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ022.
Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ028.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ018.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-053.
&&
JWA/JB
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The wind hit the Ketchikan Area as early as 1530 on 12/10 with Salmon landing observing gusts to 74 mph at that time. Gusts from 55 to 72 mph were measured after that. No damage was reported in the Ketchikan Area.
The wind hit the Craig on the evening of 12/10 with Cape Decision observing gusts to 77 mph at that time. Gusts from 55 to 65 mph were estimated around Craig and Klawock. Trees down with a road blocked were reported by the City of Craig. Hydaburg only had gusts to 48 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 789520, 789521.