Drought in Alabama, January 16 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
924 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...

The overnight forecast remains on track and updates were not
necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [647 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure will continue to dominate the region tonight, with
clear skies and calm winds prevailing. Temperatures will drop below
the freezing mark in most locales once again, with lows expected in
the low 30s and upper 20s. Immediate coastal locations will likely
remain above the freezing mark tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Tough forecast for the upcoming system Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Arctic front will arrive late Tuesday afternoon and
evening and sweep through the entire area Tuesday night. Colder
temperatures will arrive with the front, as well as some moisture
behind the front. There still is some spread in the model
solutions regarding the depth of moisture, the arrival of much
drier air to counteract and erode the moisture, and the timing of
the arrival of moisture. Typically with these types of systems,
rain will change to snow for a short time before the moisture
decreases and precipitation comes to an end. The best lift will be
just north of the area but our northern half will be close enough
to be added to the mix.

GFS remains the dry solution with the NAM/SREF as the top end
outlier. Of the non-dry solutions, general snow amounts of
roughly a tenth of an inch across SE AL and northern portions of
SW GA are common in the solutions. Timing of light snow will be
around midnight through 6AM local time over SE AL and 2AM to 9AM
across SW GA. This could be enough to cause some slick spots on
bridges and overpasses, especially where it falls in the overnight
hours and traffic is low. The next shift will evaluate the need
for any winter weather advisories.

Very cold conditions will accompany this system as well. Lows
Tuesday night will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s and Wednesday
night will fall into the upper teens to lower 20s. Wind chill
advisories will likely be needed each night and a hard freeze
watch possible Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The long term period will begin with fair weather and below average
temperatures in the wake of a cold front that will traverse the
region on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will slide across the
region Thursday through Saturday, with the ridge axis eventually
sliding east of the area. This will yield a return of southerly flow
ahead of a broad upper level trough that is expected to eject out of
the Rockies and across the Central Plains during the late weekend
time-frame. This will yield moderating temperatures and an uptick in
cloud coverage across the tri-state region Friday through the
weekend. Expect afternoon highs to return to the 60s and perhaps low
70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. The next appreciable
chance for rain will likely come early next week, as a trailing cold
front associated with the aforementioned trough approaches the
region.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle. High clouds
will move into the region by tomorrow afternoon as the next system
approaches. Winds will be light.

.MARINE...

Moderate winds and light seas will continue through Tuesday.
Increasing northerly winds possibly approaching advisory levels
will develop from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, followed
by decreasing northeasterly to easterly winds and lighter seas
Thursday through Friday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersions are expected across portions of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect RHs to fall
below critical thresholds on Wednesday and Thursday, as a cold
front sweeps through the area. Elevated northwesterly winds in the
wake of the front could approach critical levels, making red flag
conditions possible, especially on Wednesday afternoon.

.HYDROLOGY...

Little to no precipitation is expected for our area through the
next few days, so rivers will remain well below flood stage and
drought conditions will persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   31  62  33  45  22 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   38  60  31  43  25 /   0   0  20  10   0
Dothan        32  59  25  39  20 /   0   0  20  10   0
Albany        31  58  29  40  22 /   0   0  20  10   0
Valdosta      32  60  34  44  22 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  64  36  50  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  39  60  35  46  25 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Scholl