Cold in Alabama, January 1 to 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1052 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 808 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

Forecast is going as planned this evening. Made some earlier updates
to lower dew point values a bit. Temperatures are falling into the
upper teens to lower 20s as of 02Z. North winds are staying in the
10-15kt range with gusts near 20kt and equating to wind chills in
the single digits at many locations. The Wind Chill Advisory goes
into effect at 03Z, which looks good at this point as values fall
near or just below zero around or shortly after that time this
evening.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

Low level trajectories will be almost due north on New Year's Day
helping to maintain some of the coldest air we've seen in several
years across the Tennessee Valley. Despite clear skies the 12z
blended guidance has temperatures barely reaching 20F in most
locations with upper teens for highs in the elevated locations. Note,
the record low maximum for January 1st for KHSV is 25 degrees and
that looks to be in serious jeopardy. Quite a way to ring in the new
year.

Will continue the wind chill advisory for Monday night/early Tuesday
as the high continues to surge southward. Although the winds may not
be quite as significant, the temperatures themselves will plunge
after sunset so even a 5-10 mph wind will push values over the
threshold. Current forecast mins for Tuesday morning are in the
single digits. This would be the first time for most areas since
early January 2015.

We may see just a slight improvement in temperatures by Tuesday
afternoon, but that's somewhat splitting hairs. At this point it's
highly unlikely many (if any) areas get above freezing for max
temperatures. Of note, the last time we've had 3 days (or more)
consecutively of at or below freezing temperatures at KHSV was
January 2001. The all time record is 6 days in a row ending on
2/5/1996.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 CST Sun Dec 31 2017

The pattern of an upper-level ridge out west and a large trough
covering the other two-thirds of the country will continue through
the extended forecast. Dry and frigid conditions will continue into
the new year.

Wednesday morning will start off with temps struggling to reach the
teens. Sfc high pressure overhead will shift eastward allowing winds
to become S/Southwesterly and help temps 'warm' up above freezing for
a few hours. However, this will be a short lived event as a dry cold
front will move into the area Wed night/Thurs morning, returning
those breezy northerly winds and another reinforcing shot of cold
air. The breezy conditions will put wind chills in the single digits
to just below zero even in a few spots Thurs morning. Behind the
front, another sfc high from the north builds in keeping temperatures
at bay through the rest of the week. Temps Thurs may not reach above
freezing and overnight lows attempt to reach the teens with wind
chills hovering around 0 degrees. Friday will only be a few degrees
warmer. For those that are not a fan of the cold weather, there looks
to be a pattern change on the way over the weekend. On Saturday, the
sfc high shifts off to the east and those nice southerly winds
return once again warming temps back up into the 40s!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight Monday night to noon CST Tuesday
     for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Monday for TNZ076-096-097.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight Monday night to noon CST Tuesday
     for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
245 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011130-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
245 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of today and tonight...

Wind chills will begin to fall to between -10 and 0 degrees late
this evening. Please consult the Wind Chill Advisory that is in
effect for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Wind chills in the -10 to 0 degree range are expected through Noon on
Monday, and then again from Midnight Monday night through Noon on
Tuesday. Please consult the Wind Chill Advisory that is in effect for
more information.

Bitterly cold air will persist over the area for much of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will only rise above freezing briefly
Wednesday afternoon, while low temperatures will remain below 15
degrees. A more sustained warm up is expected to begin on Saturday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

70/DD