Washington, 2017

High Wind in Washington, March 10, 2017

March 10, 2017 · NWS SEW · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

There was brief high wind on Camano Island.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

There was brief high wind on Camano Island.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 9:15 PM PST, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 9:15 PM PST, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
915 PM PST Thu Mar 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will strengthen overnight tonight and Friday
morning in the wake of a vigorous frontal system...easing by late
Friday morning. Although the front has passed...some showers will
linger into Friday night. A second frontal system is expected late
Saturday morning bringing rain and mountain snow at high elevations.
Temperatures will rise above normal for the first time in three
weeks Sunday, with an active weather pattern continuing through the
first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Most of the CWA finds itself behind the front at the
time of this writing as said front is running down the length of the
Cascades where snow continues to fall. Given the pass
closures...although Snoqualmie Pass has since re-opened...Winter
Weather Advisory continues to look legit and as such will remain in
place. Coastal radar is showing some post-frontal showers over the
coast and Olympic peninsula and with model progs showing moisture
lingering over the area through the overnight hours...certainly
would not rule out that activity spreading eastward...although
coverage will still remain scattered. Winds are expected to continue
to increase overnight...peaking Friday morning with west to
southwest sustained winds ranging 20 to 35 mph and gusts up to 40 to
50 mph. Inherited wind advisory going into effect late tonight and
through 10 AM Friday looks to take this into account very well.

Keep hearing the Creedence song...Who'll Stop the Rain...with each
successive model run. Sadly...it will not be this forecaster
although some drying through the day Friday and into Saturday
morning is expected thanks to a weak upper level ridge moving
quickly over the area during that time frame. As is always the case
though...any succor, no matter how sweet, is short lived here and
sure enough another frontal system looks to enter the area late
Saturday morning bringing more precip to the area...and another wave
of depression. Upper level ridging starts to nuzzle its way into the
area for Sunday and ordinarily that would be dry...and great...but
both GFS and ECMWF prove how cold and heartless of machines they
really are as a shortwave disturbance passing to the north may allow
for some showers to bleed into the area.

A positive throughout all of this is that 500 mb heights remain
warmer than what has been seen the past two weeks...effectively
ending the threat of lowland snow and...doing one better...looks to
bump afternoon high temperatures to at or a little above normal as
early as Friday with many locations right around the normal climo
temp of 52 degrees. So it is not all doom and gloom...just gloom.
Lots of gloom.  SMR

.LONG TERM...From previous discussion...Temperatures are expected to
continue to trend warmer with 500 mb heights rising into the mid 560
to lower 570 dm range as a flat upper level ridge builds over the
area. The dirty ridge will still allow a series of frontal systems
to reach the area Sunday and another on Monday. The second system
looks to be the wetter of the two with snow levels working up to
above 6000 feet Monday night. Medium range models continue to
highlight a break Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday before
the next system arrives late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will continue
tonight through Friday night. A 1005 MB low just offshore at 04Z
will move across the N interior of W WA 11Z-15Z as a 1007 MB low
then weaken over southern B.C. The low will raise strong gusty winds
across much of W WA late tonight through Friday afternoon.

A cold front moved E of the area early this evening and the
widespread rain has diminished to spotty areas of light rain. The
lower air mass remains quite moist with a mix of IFR and MVFR
conditions. The low conditions are expected to continue through
around 18Z with some gradual lifting to a mix of MVFR and low-end
VFR CIGS up to around 5000 feet after 18Z.

KSEA...IFR or MVFR conditions are expected to continue through at
least 18Z. Surface winds will remain southerly but will pick up to
15-30KT around 09Z and continue through 18Z. Kam

&&

.MARINE...A 1005 MB low about 200 NM offshore at 8 PM will move
across Cape Flattery around 3 AM near 1007 MB. The low will weaken
over southern B.C. through Friday morning. Gales are expected over
all waters at some point tonight and Friday. Winds will begin
weakening Friday afternoon as the low weakens and departs and a
surface ridge offshore starts building inland. The ridge will be
over W WA Friday night.

Westerly flow aloft over the NE Pacific will direct a series weaker
frontal systems across the region Saturday through early next week.
It looks like fronts will cross the area Saturday, Monday, and
Wednesday. Kam

&&

.HYDROLOGY...From previous discussion...No river flooding is
expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.CLIMATE...From previous discussion...Through the first 8 days of
March Seattle has had 7 days with highs less than 50 degrees. This
equals the total number of days with highs below 50 for March 2013
to 2016. March 2013 had 5 days. March 2014 had 1 day. March 2015 had
0 days and March 2016 only had 1 day below 50 degrees. The average
temperature for the first 8 days of March this year in Seattle is
41.4 degrees. In 2016 it was 49.9, 46.3 in 2015, 50.4 in 2014 and
46.7 in 2013.

In addition to the cold temperatures it has now rained in 28 out
of the last 35 days in Seattle through March 8th. With the rain
today into the weekend the water year total ( precipitation since
October 1st ) will likely be over 10 inches above normal and will
be within 2 inches of the yearly normal of 37.49 inches. The
water year total through midnight was 34.86 inches. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-Central
     Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Everett and Vicinity-Hood
     Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-San Juan
     County-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-
     Western Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Friday for Eastern Strait
     of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar from 10 PM this evening to 6
     PM PST Friday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
     10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Friday for
     Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 1 PM PST Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday for
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area

When
March 10, 1:00 AM PST to 3:00 AM PST
Where
Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

An observer in Cama Beach State Park, on the west side of Camano Island, recorded wind of 37g60 mph wind.

High Wind, Everett and Vicinity

When
March 10, 2:00 PM PST to 3:00 PM PST
Where
Everett and Vicinity forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) estimated sustained
Deaths
0 direct, 1 indirect
Reported by
Broadcast Media

A 17 year old female was killed by a tree hiking. The tree may have been weakened from 40 to 50 mph gusts earlier in the day.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
High Wind, Everett and Vicinity2017-03-1017FemaleUnder TreeIndirect

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, March 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 675565, 688788.