A warm front moved northward across the Mid-Atlantic region and southerly flow transported moisture into the region. Breaks in sunshine led to increased instability and showers and thunderstorms formed and produced very heavy rain that led to flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A warm front moved northward across the Mid-Atlantic region and southerly flow transported moisture into the region. Breaks in sunshine led to increased instability and showers and thunderstorms formed and produced very heavy rain that led to flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 8:41 AM EST, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary front will meander across the region through tonight before lifting back northeast of the area as a warm front over the weekend. A cold front is forecast to cross the area Monday into early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A nearly stationary remains draped across eastern West Virginia then along the Blue Ridge Mountains. An onshore flow has caused low clouds north and east of the boundary...but more breaks in the clouds are occurring to the south and west of the boundary. The boundary will slowly lift north and east as a warm front this afternoon and evening. A southerly flow behind the boundary will continue to pump in plenty of moisture overhead. There will be enough breaks of sunshine for instability to develop. Latest modified sounding from KIAD shows around 1000-1500 MLCAPE developing this afternoon. Popup showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. The best chance for heavier showers and thunderstorms will be across the Potomac Highlands and Shenandoah Valley early this afternoon...then across the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas later this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles remain minimal so this does reduce the threat for severe thunderstorms. However...taller updrafts could produce a wet microburst so isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out. That is represented by the Marginal Risk in the SPC outlook today. In addition, these thunderstorms will be heavy rainers with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Localized flash flooding is possible...but due to relatively dry antecedent conditions a Watch has not been issued at this time. While there should be a decrease in thunderstorm coverage by/after midnight tonight, there will be enough upglide and vorticity advection to support a chance of overnight showers. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Each day this weekend will be a little bit warmer as the front retreats. Thus, it will reason that instability will increase as well, which will support daily chances at diurnal showers and thunderstorms, with scattered to numerous coverage. Shear remains weak, but MLCAPE jumps up to perhaps 2000 j/kg per SREF mean. Locally heavy rain will also be an issue, as precipitable waters will remain around 2 inches. The cumulative effect may become problematic, depending upon daily rainfall patterns. Will also need to be mindful of early morning fog potential, with ample low level moisture, dewpoints near 70 degrees, and little flow. By Sunday night flow turns more south/southwest as a cold front approaches the forecast area. Forcing will become more organized at that time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large scale trough will be moving across the Great Lks early next week supporting a cdfnt moving through the area Mon evening. Ahead of cdfnt, a plume of very deep moisture (PWATs aoa 2.0) inches will advect in with widespread showers and t-storms expected Mon some capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. In addition to the deep moisture, there will be strong upper level divergence on right entrance region of 85+kt jet streak over southwest PA and good sfc convergence along front that will encourage heavy precip. Flash flooding will be a concern given anomalous deep moisture and strong lift, although expected individual storm cell motion of 25-30 kt could offset that somewhat from an otherwise favorable environment for flash flooding. Cdfnt will clear the fcst by 12Z Tue with significant drying expected through Wed. Moisture begins to return again for the second half of next week with sct afternoon/evening showers/t-storms returning. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low clouds continue this morning across the terminals. MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through early this afternoon. Cigs should gradually improve later this afternoon. Confidence in timing of improving CIGS remains low. Do believe that there will be a better coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. As is usually the case, point forecasting more problematic, but am comfortable enough to include VCTS for late day/early evening. The pattern will be similar through the weekend, with widespread flight restrictions due to low clouds and/or fog early in the day, followed by scattered late day/early evening thunderstorms. Potential for IFR conditions Monday in heavy showers and t-storms. Conditions improve late Mon night after frontal passage. && .MARINE... Gradient flow should be 10 kt or less through Saturday, with east winds gradually becoming south. The gradient will increase Saturday night and Sunday, with Small Craft Advisory potential increasing. That said, there will be daily chances at thunderstorms, especially late day and evening...any of which may contain locally gusty winds. SCA conditions likely Monday and Mon night. Winds begin to diminish Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water level departures running around a foot above normal this morning. Believe departures should be gradually increasing though the weekend, although guidance not exactly supporting that assertion. That places the latest forecast at the upper end of the guidance spread. Even with that, there should be no additional issues-- aside from Straits Point-- until the Saturday tide cycle. Have extended the Advisory for St Marys County through Saturday morning. Caution stages at high tide abound elsewhere. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...LFR AVIATION...BJL/LFR/HTS MARINE...BJL/LFR/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-171000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 137 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds are possible over the waters this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Showers and thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing intense rainfall in a short period of time that could result in flash flooding in addition to isolated damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-171000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 137 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the central Shenandoah Valley and portions of central Virginia through 8 pm this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Showers and thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing intense rainfall in a short period of time that could result in flash flooding in addition to isolated damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:53 UTC.
10 flash flood, 8 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
South Court Street was flooded and closed due to heavy rain. A couple inches of water was entering one structure.
Main Street was closed near College Street due to high water.
There was flooding along Route 11 near the 3500 Block near the Economy Inn Hotel. Lanes were closed.
North Liberty Street was flooded near a small stream out of its banks north of Harrisonburg. Jefferson Street near Madison Street was also closed due to high water.
The 2000 Block of Silver Lake Road was closed due to high water.
Massanutten Drive was flooded and closed near Strony Run in the 3000 Block.
There were six to eight inches of water estimated flowing down the 1700 Block Englewood Drive.
There were 12 to 14 inches of water on Rowe Road.
Mcgaheysville Road was closed near Stony Run due to high water.
There were multiple road closures due to high water near Richmond Avenue and Greenville Avenue.
Route 991 was flooded and closed south of Mcgaheysville at Stony Run.
Route 979 was flooded and closed at the Quail Run Crossing.
Eight inches of water was flowing across Patton Farm Road at a low water crossing over South River.
Bethel Church Road was closed near River Road due to flooding.
Mcgaheysville Road was still closed near Jacob Burner Drive due to residual high water.
The 11000 Block of Model Road was closed due to residual high water.
Bethel Church Road was still closed near River Road due to residual high water.
Massanutten Drive was closed near Colo Road due to residual high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 705812, 705835, 705840, 705850, 705852, 705853, 705855, 705994, 705856, 705857, 705995, 706006, 706007, 705858, 706008, 706009, 706011, 706010.