Winter Weather in Texas, December 22, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
339 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A potent upper trough approaching via NM has been able to squeeze
out some generally light sleet and snow showers across the Caprock
this afternoon. The lift has been overcoming relatively dry air both
near ground level and above the stratus deck that has been in place
in spots. Given the light amounts and surface temperatures mostly at
or slightly above freezing, we haven't seen any real impacts, though
minor accumulations of sleet/snow will be possible in a few grassy
spots. It does appear the final round of lift is now just about to
exit eastern NM and the upper trough will quickly move eastward
across the CWA over the next 6 hours or so, with precipitation
quickly ending from west-to-east as this happens. Any wintry
precipitation should quickly come to an end on the Caprock after
00Z, though it may linger several more hours over the northeast
zones before completely diminishing. As the trough passes this
evening any rain and/or sleet this afternoon should quickly switch
over to snow before ending. Hopefully the snowflakes will help
people get into the holiday frame of mind without creating any
problems on the roadways.

Skies will quickly clear behind the trough tonight and a chilly
night will follow with lows mostly in the 20s. Surface troughing
will then deepen in the lee of the central and southern Rockies
Saturday, tightening the pressure gradient locally. Breezy westerly
winds sustained in the 20 to 30 mph range will become common on the
Caprock during the afternoon, with the downslope breezes pushing
highs back well above average, into the lower and middle 60s. The
warm and dry winds will also raise the fire danger. The returning
warmth won't last long though as the next cold front drops through
the South Plains early Sunday. Gusty northerly winds will advect in
much cooler air again with highs likely not making it out of the
upper 30s to middle 40s.

The progressive pattern will continue into next week with some form
of cyclonically curved northwesterly to westerly flow aloft. Each
disturbance passing by in this flow, generally to our north, will
bring a cold front through the region, though odds of measurable
precipitation are currently not looking very favorable. Return flow
behind Sunday's surface ridge will yield a mild and breezy Christmas
Day with highs back into the 50s and lower 60s. Another cold front
will follow early Tuesday dropping temperatures back below average.
Beyond that it becomes less certain if we'll get another cold front
Thursday or not until Friday. Given the uncertainties, we have
accepted the blended guidance which resides somewhere in the
middle toward the end of the forecast. Obviously, we'll have to
refine the forecast highs/lows (potentially significantly) as
pattern is better resolved over the coming days.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017

TXZ021>044-231730-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light wintry showers of snow and sleet will be possible across
the Caprock this afternoon, with chances expanding into the
southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains this evening. A
dusting of snow will be possible in a few spots, though overall
impacts will be minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Breezy, dry and warm westerly winds will create elevated to low-
end critical fire weather across much of the Caprock Saturday
afternoon.