Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 1 to 2, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

.UPDATE...
We sent a quick update at 10 PM letting the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for Eastland, Stephens and Young expire. We expect
thunderstorms to continue to develop across the western counties
through midnight as a cold front moves slowly through the area.
These storms may become marginally severe with quarter size hail
and possibly some wind gusts near 60 MPH. However, the bigger
threat may actually be flash flooding due to the slow movement and
training of storms. At the very least, urban and small stream
flooding is likely through the early morning hours. Scattered
showers and storms are still possibe well ahead of the line
overnight but these storms should remain below severe limits.

It still appears as if the line of storms currently moving across
the western counties will weaken as they move east away for the
upper low. However, high res solutions continue to rapidly develop
the activity over the Big Bend region overnight and these storms
will shift east/northeast Sunday morning and produce widespread
rain and thunderstorms across most of the CWA making for a very
active day.

The current plans are to leave the forecast as is but will
highlight the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding overnight
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and future graphics.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/
An upper level low that was over west-central New Mexico at mid
afternoon will sink southward tonight before moving northeast
across North Texas Sunday and Sunday night. This system will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and Central Texas
through Sunday night. Some severe thunderstorms will be likely
along with locally heavy rain. Another upper level low will move
into the southwestern U.S. Monday and swing across Kansas Tuesday
and Tuesday night bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night, but severe weather is not expected
with this system. Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the
week.

Scattered elevated showers and a few thunderstorms have developed
mainly west of I-35 this afternoon. This activity has been moving
northeast. Up to 1 inch hail will be possible a few of these
storms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Cloud cover
west of I-35 has been inhibiting the development of surface based
storms, but there are some breaks west of the forecast area and
some stronger storms have started to form. There will be the
potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms mainly across
the western parts of the forecast area this evening and some of
this activity. A cold front that extended southeast of a Lawton,
Oklahoma to Big Spring to Fort Stockton line at 3 PM is expected
to move east into the western zones by late this evening. This
boundary will provide an additional focus for thunderstorms
overnight tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will shift eastward
toward the I-35 corridor overnight tonight. Large hail and
damaging winds should be the main severe weather threats tonight,
though we cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Sunday looks to be a bigger severe weather day across North and
Central Texas as the frontal boundary moves to near a Sherman to
DFW to Killeen line by midday. Some elevated storms on the cold
side of this boundary may result in some large hail but for areas
to the southeast of the boundary, strong shear, CAPES of 2000-2500
J/Kg will result in the potential for all modes of severe weather
as well as flash flooding. We may end up needing a Flash Flood
Watch for parts of the south central and eastern zones (especially
from Temple to Canton southeastward) for Sunday.

As the upper level low moves across North Texas Sunday night,
widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will continue but the
non-flooding severe weather should come to an end as the cold
front progresses eastward. Rain chances will end from southwest to
northeast overnight Sunday night with just some low chances of
showers remaining into Monday morning northeast of a Sherman to
Canton line.

As the next upper level low swings out of the southwestern U.S.
into Kansas, there will be a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms along and north of the I-20 corridor Tuesday night.
Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the week.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  72  56  78  58 /  60  90  60  10   0
Waco                64  78  55  79  56 /  60 100  50   5   0
Paris               60  72  56  74  54 /  30  90  60  20   5
Denton              60  70  54  76  54 /  60  90  60  10   0
McKinney            61  72  55  75  55 /  60  90  60  10   0
Dallas              63  73  58  78  59 /  60  90  60  10   0
Terrell             62  73  57  77  56 /  40  90  60  10   0
Corsicana           63  75  58  78  58 /  40 100  60  10   0
Temple              65  80  55  81  57 /  60 100  50   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  70  51  79  53 /  70  90  60   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030400-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the overnight hours
with the best storm chances west of the Interstate 35 corridor. Some
storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail being the main
threats. In addition, there is some potential for locally heavy
rainfall which may result in urban flooding and possibly flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Widespread thunderstorms will develop early Sunday and will continue
throughout the day. Severe weather is likely, including the
potential for damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes, especially
south of Interstate 20. Thunderstorms will also have the potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding through Sunday
evening. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Sunday night across
all of North Texas but the severe weather threat will shift to the
east during this time.

There is a low chance of thunderstorms mostly along and north of
Interstate 20 late Tuesday night as a cold front moves into the
region. Severe weather is not expected during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will be possible west of Interstate 35 overnight
and across most of the region on Sunday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1020 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

TXZ129-130-141-020415-
Comanche TX-Erath TX-Eastland TX-
1020 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ERATH...SOUTHERN
EASTLAND AND COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1020 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Rising Star, or 17 miles northwest of Comanche, moving
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comanche, Dublin, De Leon, Gorman, Rising Star, Gustine, Huckabay and
Carbon.

LAT...LON 3236 9893 3236 9826 3182 9833 3180 9873
      3208 9893 3208 9907
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 265DEG 19KT 3208 9880

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1105 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

TXZ100-101-116-020430-
Palo Pinto TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
1105 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG...SOUTHWESTERN
JACK AND NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Graford, or 16 miles west of Mineral Wells, moving north at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Graford and Possum Kingdom State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Possum Kingdom Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 9820 3277 9821 3277 9856 3304 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 200DEG 29KT 3289 9835

30