A marginally unstable atmosphere allowed for a rogue strong thunderstorm to develop across west Tennessee during the late afternoon hours of March 30th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A marginally unstable atmosphere allowed for a rogue strong thunderstorm to develop across west Tennessee during the late afternoon hours of March 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 2:39 PM CST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .DISCUSSION... At 3PM, WSR-88D radar depicted a line of non severe showers and thunderstorms slowly moving across west Tennessee and north Mississippi. The main story with this line has not been convection, but instead the gusty winds behind the front. Winds have gusted as high as 45 MPH in the clear slot with sustained winds 15 to 25 MPH. Latest GOES water vapor imagery shows a large cutoff low centered over Missouri. For tonight, the line of showers and thunderstorms will push east of our area by about 10 PM, bringing an end to rain. Cooler air will filter in overnight with lows bottoming out around 50 degrees. The aforementioned upper level low will lift northeast of our area by late Friday morning. In its wake, shortwave upper level ridging will build into the Mid-South for Friday and Saturday. This will bring dry and seasonable Spring weather to the region. Highs will generally be in the 70s under mostly sunny skies. The next weather maker will be a cutoff low ejecting from the four corners late Saturday. This closed low will evolve into a open wave early Sunday morning as it digs across southwest Texas. Ahead of the wave, clouds and light rain showers will move into the Mid-South during the day on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime as dewpoints rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. The shortwave and associated surface low are expected to traverse across the state of Mississippi through Monday night. This will keep a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms in our area through that period, and also keep severe weather chances confined to our south. In the long term, the weather pattern continues to stay progressive. More showers and thunderstorms can be expected next Wednesday as another cold front moves in the region. AC3 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs Last several runs of the HRRR and RAP models show reduced TS potential this afternoon. A broken line of SHRA likely along or just east of the MS River, but marginal forecast confidence in TS at MEM given the drier and less unstable boundary layer. VFR to prevail this evening and overnight, with dry westerly winds prevailing in the boundary layer. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-312300- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence- Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion- Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton- Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha- 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening, mainly east of a north-south line from Jackson, Tennessee to New Albany, Mississippi. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats with any severe storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed across west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi this afternoon into the early evening hours. AC3
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
437 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
TNZ003-004-020-021-302200-
Carroll TN-Weakley TN-Henry TN-Gibson TN-
437 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR...
Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Henry County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Gibson County in western Tennessee...
At 436 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Milan, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.
People in Carroll...southeastern Weakley...southwestern Henry and
southeastern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.
LAT...LON 3579 8872 3579 8878 3589 8885 3630 8847
3604 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 229DEG 45KT 3589 8872The Paducah radar (KPAH), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:01 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Nickel size hail reported just west of Huntingdon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 686638.