An incoming cold front brought high winds to some locations in southwest Oregon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming cold front brought high winds to some locations in southwest Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 9:17 AM PST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
917 AM PST Wed Nov 8 2017
.UPDATE...
Updates this morning have been to fine tune the wind forecast in
the Klamath Falls area and the Rogue Valley from Grants Pass to
Medford to Emigrant Lake and Shady Cove for today through this
evening. Specifically, winds have been increased slightly for
Medford and Klamath Falls, primarily to make them consistent with
the latest thinking for the airfield forecasts. BTL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rain has begun along and near the coast, and winds are gusting
as has been expected from the southeast and south this morning.
Precipitation has also begun in the Mount Shasta area where the
current snow level appears to be between 5000 and 5500 feet. In
addition to monitoring observation trends to ensure they are
consistent with the forecast today, we'll be keeping an eye to the
ocean, where some lightning is possible beginning around 4 PM PST
today. Some has been observed in the last hour about 200 nautical
miles west of Cape Mendocino, so we'll be watching the progression
of the dynamic features associated with that.
The remainder of the forecast looks on track for a generally
unsettled pattern remaining in place for the next several days,
though most areas will catch a relative break this weekend,
especially on Saturday. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions prevail across the
area as high level clouds stream in ahead of a potent front expected
later this morning into the afternoon. Low level wind shear will be
a concern for all TAF sites through this morning before stronger
winds aloft can surface. Once these winds surface, gusty south to
southeast winds will be likely, especially in the Rogue and Shasta
Valleys and east of the Cascades. Precipitation will follow the
front and cigs and vis will reduce to MVFR with local IFR possible
in heavier rain. Partial to full terrain obscuration expected with
precipitation. BR-y
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday 08 November 2017...A strong
front currently moving through the waters will maintain gales and
very steep, hazardous seas through at least this afternoon. The
gales and very steep seas are most likely near the capes and beyond
about 5 NM from shore with conditions hazardous to small craft
elsewhere.
Another front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday,
keeping seas very steep and hazardous with periods of gusty winds
through late Thursday night. Winds won't quite reach gales, it will
still be hazardous to small craft through Thursday.
A brief period of relatively improved conditions is possible on
Saturday. BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM PST Wed Nov 8 2017/
SHORT TERM...The first in a series of strong fronts is
approaching the coast this morning and will move inland this
afternoon and evening. This front will bring strong gusty winds
into the area along with moderate to locally heavy precipitation
along the coast and light to moderate precipitation inland. Snow
levels will be relatively high across the area today, expect for
locally lower snow levels down to 5000 feet near the Mount Shasta
area. Another front moves into the area late tonight into
Thursday morning bring another round of precipitation as well as
strong winds to eastern areas. Then a low will move around an
upper trough just off the coast and into the area Thursday night
and Friday morning bringing continued wet and cool conditions.
Today and tonight, the main impacts from the first two fronts are
expected to be:
*Wind Impacts: Driving may become difficult for high profile
vehicles and loose objects may become airborne. Strongest winds
are expected in the Shasta Valley, Summer Lake area and over the
higher mountains. Moderate gusty winds are also expected in the
southern Rogue Valley.
*Snow Impacts: Slippery, wet snow-covered roads are expected above
5000 ft elevation near Mt. Shasta.
*Rain Impacts: Slippery, wet roads. Localized ponding on roadways
expected along coastal areas.
As the front approaches the area and a strong mid level jet moves
overhead, southerly winds will increase across the area. A second
front tonight will bring continued strong winds over eastern
areas. The strongest winds are expected in the higher mountains,
in the southern Shasta Valley as well as in the Summer Lake area
and Warner mountains. Winds are expected to peak late this morning
into early this evening in the Shasta Valley and peak late this
afternoon through early Thursday morning in the Summer Lake area
and over the Warner Mountains. Winds gusting to 60 mph are
expected in these areas with locally higher gusts over higher
portions of the Warners and Winter Rim. Winds will gradually lower
tonight in the Shasta Valley and will lower Thursday afternoon
for the Summer Lake area and Warner mountains. In the Rogue
Valley, southeast winds are expected to increase today with gusts
to around 40 to 50 mph from southern Medford to around Ashland
today into tonight. A high wind warning and wind advisories are in
effect for these areas with strong winds. Please see the NPWMFR
for details.
Models remain on track showing rain spreading into the coast this
morning then increasing along the coast and becoming moderate to
locally heavy late this morning through early this evening.
Periods of moderate rain are expected along the coast tonight and
Thursday morning as a second front moves into the area. Moderate
to locally heavy rain along the coast will bring slippery roads,
increased stream flows and localized ponding on roadways. Locally
heavy rain is also possible over the Chetco Bar wildfire burn area
today. Heavy rain could create localized rock or mud slides in the
burn area. Those who live or travel in this area should take
extra care. If you come across a debris flow or a flooded roadway,
find an alternate route. Turn around, don't drown.
Inland areas can expect precipitation to spread across the area
late this morning through this evening. Snow levels will be fairly
high, around 6500 ft elevation, except for locally lower snow
levels down to 5000 ft elevation near Mount Shasta. So most areas
will see light to moderate rain with this first front. Areas near
Mount Shasta above 5000 feet elevation are expected to see
moderate to locally heavy snow amounts above 5000 feet. A winter
weather advisory is in effect for this area. Please see the WSWMFR
for details.
The second front will bring additional precipitation tonight into
Thursday. Additionally as cold air aloft moves into place and weak
instability develops, expect a slight chance for thunderstorms
over the coastal waters and along the coast this evening through
Thursday morning. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 feet
for most of the area on Thursday.
A showery and cool pattern continues Thursday afternoon and
evening. Then models show a shortwave and surface low moving
around the upper trough just off the coast and into the area
Thursday night and Friday. This will bring another round of
precipitation to the area. Models have trended slightly higher on
winds as well and expect breezy to gusty winds, especially in the
mountains and for areas east of the Cascades.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM PST Tue Nov 7 2017/
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday Night...
The active pattern will continue through the long term. After a
brief period of ridging and some drying out, the next storm system
approaches the region Saturday evening. The models have backed
off a bit regarding the onset of precipitation with this front,
but still push quite a bit of moisture into the forecast area
Sunday and Monday. The details remain a bit sketchy at this time
range, but the usual suspects of wind and heavy rain will be the
primary concerns, as is typical for this time of year. Snow
amounts do not appear to be a big player here as of now, mainly as
snow levels should be above the passes.
The wet and cool pattern will continue with another system arriving
by midweek, again producing rain, wind, and mountain snow. -BPN
AVIATION...08/06Z TAF CYCLE...A mid-level deck is moving in ahead
of the rain tonight, but conditions should remain VFR. Southerly
winds aloft will strengthen tonight and with an inversion close to
the ground, conditions will be favorable for low level wind shear at
many TAF sites. Gusty south to southeast winds are possible
Wednesday in the Rogue and Shasta Valleys as well as over the East
Side. Precipitation will come in with the frontal passage, and VSBYs
will reduce to MVFR with local IFR with any heavy rain/snow. Partial
to full terrain obscuration expected with precipitation. Freezing
levels at the coast will stay around or above 5000 feet. -BS/Spilde
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday 08 November 2017...A strong
front currently moving through the waters will maintain gales and
very steep, hazardous seas through at least this afternoon. The
gales and very steep seas are most likely near the capes and beyond
about 5 NM from shore with conditions hazardous to small craft
elsewhere.
Another front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday,
keeping seas very steep and hazardous with periods of gusty winds
through late Thursday night. Winds won't quite reach gales, it will
still be hazardous to small craft through Thursday.
A brief period of relatively improved conditions is possible on
Saturday. BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
CAZ082-083.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTL/CC/MNFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The RAWS at Flynn Prairie recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 69 mph , recorded at 08/1413 PST.
The NOS/NWLON at Port Orford recorded a gust to 58 mph at 08/2342 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 721913, 721912.