The Flounce wildfire was started by lightning on 08/07/17 around 4:45 PM PDT. As of the last report at 03:30 PDT on 08/21/17, the fire covered 587 acres and was 93 percent contained.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Flounce wildfire was started by lightning on 08/07/17 around 4:45 PM PDT. As of the last report at 03:30 PDT on 08/21/17, the fire covered 587 acres and was 93 percent contained. 3.0 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 2:29 PM PST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
329 PM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017
.DISCUSSION...A persistent swath of mid level clouds extending
from roughly Mt Ashland to extreme northeast Lake county has
prevented heating beneath it, and cumulus is building outside of
the cloudy band. the best development at this time is in southern
Lake county and Modoc county and are putting down bolts at this
time. The Cascades north of the clouds are also beginning to see
growth, but no bolts are showing up yet. Have reduced pops in the
cloud band area to isolated as there can still be some development
after the cloud band shrinks later this afternoon and we still
have several hours of heating with elevated instability over the
region.
Elevated instability will remain overnight with several weak short
waves cycling through around the upper closed low keeping a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday morning.
The upper low wobbles back offshore Tuesday with Monsoonal
moisture continuing to feed into the region increasing the PW
values to near 1.25 inches in portions of the west side.
Instability is stronger over the west side Tuesday with northerly
flow over the east side keeping the northeast corner of Lake
county stable. However, as been the case the past several days
remnants of cloud bands circling around the upper low may reduce
activity as surface support of the elevated convection is blocked.
Wednesday will see the upper low a little farther north that was
being indicated yesterday. This will increase the steering flow
and bring easterly steering winds across almost all of the region.
If the region sees clearing through the morning into the afternoon
we should see possible thunderstorms all the way to the coast and
even offshore by late afternoon. Again, the big wildcard will be
remaining clouds into the morning that will inhibit heating and
thunderstorm development and their locations.
Elevated convection remains overnight again Wednesday night with
LI's in the -3 to -5 range over portions of the west side at 9Z
Thursday morning. Vorticity axis' are shown rotating through the
forecast are overnight, but with the model's variation day by day
will not try to pin down where they might develop but will rather
put a slight chance in the area where there is elevated
instability.
Models are indicating that the upper low moves south and in inland
into north central California Thursday and by 00Z are showing
computed from 850 LI's near -6 near Crater Lake and stronger than
-3 over most of the west side. The center of the upper low is
projected to move up into the center of the forecast area and
should spin numerous short wave kickers through.
Although confidence is not high with a cut-off low, models are in
agreement with opening the upper low Friday and models are
bringing relief to the hot pattern and bring a weak, mostly dry
cold front through on Monday. Sven
&&
.AVIATION...07/18Z TAF CYCLE... Coastal stratus continues to burn off
this morning with the OTH site after watching latest satellite
trends, it appears the onshore winds will prevent OTH going back to
VFR conditions today. So look for IFR conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the day along the coast. As for inland areas, VFR
conditions will continue today. Smoke from the wild fires will
continue to produce hazy conditions with visibilities around 6
miles this afternoon. OTH and the areas along the coast will see
IFR to LIFR conditions tonight with a pretty good marine push
continuing tonight. -Smith
&&
.MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Monday 7 August 2017...Increasing
north winds will bring small craft advisory conditions to an area
south of Cape Blanco this evening through Tuesday evening. Choppy
steep seas will develop over almost all of the waters tonight...
subsiding Tuesday night. The remainder of the week will be
relatively quiet in terms of winds and seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM Monday 7 August, 2017...The overall
forecast thinking remains consistent. With plenty of thunderstorm
triggers (via shortwaves spinning around an upper level circulation
over Northern California), mid level moisture, and instability,
abundant lightning is expected the next four afternoons at least for
the majority of the forecast area. Models continue to show the
center of circulation shifting offshore on Tuesday, suggesting the
concentration of thunderstorm activity will expand westward some.
Steering flow is overall weak through tomorrow, and with ample
midlevel moisture, wetting rains are possible with any storms that
form. Lightning strikes will occur outside of cores, and thus new
fires starts are expected. Drilling down for a bit more detail
regarding steering flow, areas from the Cascades west will see
slightly stronger east to west steering flow, and this may lessen
the amount of rain possible there and should help storms push off
the terrain and into West Side Valleys but moreso each day from
Tuesday through Thursday. Additionally, nighttime upper level
instability gradually increases through the week, and this suggests
better chances for nocturnal thunderstorms...which, subjectively,
are drier than daytime storms in our forecast area. We are
particularly interested in Wednesday night where energy and
instability align, especially from the Cascades westward and over
Siskiyou County.
We will be staying in touch with partner agencies regarding fuel
status changes due to any accumulation of moisture over the next
several days. For now, we expect abundant lightning on dry fuels and
we have issued Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches to
highlight this threat.
Looking further out, the model consensus strongly suggests a cooling
trend and a period of more stable conditions from Saturday through
early next week. Sunday could be problematic east of the Cascades,
especially for any new/existing fires, as windy conditions are
possible with low humidity ahead of the approaching trough.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
ORZ617-621>624.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for ORZ624-625.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for ORZ616-619.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
ORZ617-620>623.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for ORZ617-620>623.
CA... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ280>282.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
CAZ280>282-284.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for CAZ280>282-284.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for CAZ285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Tuesday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
SBN/SBN/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Flounce wildfire was started by lightning on 08/07/17 around 4:45 PM PDT. As of the last report at 03:30 PDT on 08/21/17, the fire covered 587 acres and was 93 percent contained. 3.0 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, August 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 710853.