NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 6, 1:54 PM PST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 1:54 PM PST, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
254 PM PDT Thu Apr 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...
.Short Term...Tonight through Friday Night...Currently, just 350
miles offshore of Oregon and Northern California, satellite
imagery shows a large spiral of clouds. This is the deepening low
that will produce a powerful storm in the Pacific Northwest
tonight into Friday. The low is behaving very closely to what
models have predicted over the past several runs, and as a result,
confidence is very high concerning the forecast for gusty, even
damaging, winds and periods of moderate to heavy rain.
Preparations should begin now for this very windy and potentially
hazardous system.
Winds will be the most concerning aspect of this storm, with
model pressure gradients reaching -13 mb between North BEnd and
Arcata. To put this in perspective, it normally only takes roughly
half of that to produce a High Wind event with a similar low
pressure track. Given that the low is deepening rapidly, and this
is apparent from satellite products, the prospects for gusty winds
for nearly the entire forecast area are very good. Have expanded
the inherited wind headlines to cover all but the Cascades and
Western Siskiyou county, not because it won't be windy there, but
merely because the criteria for those areas is much higher than
others. With strong winds this time of year, with trees budding
leaves and the soils still moist, downed trees and branches could
easily produce road hazards and power outages. Driving could be
hazardous as well, especially along the coast and across the East
Side, where crosswinds will be strongest, and vehicles could
easily be pushed or tipped over. For more details on expected
conditions, see the Hazardous Weather message at PDXNPWMFR.
Moderate to heavy rain is also expected with this system, but as
we have had a bit of a dry spell, rivers and streams are not
expected to flood. However, there may be periods of rain that
produce ponding on area roads, or brief rises on smaller creeks,
but no other hazards are expected. The storm will be strong
enough, with upper level air cool enough, that thunderstorms are
possible for the majority of the area during the afternoon.
Fortunately, snow levels will be on the higher side for the bulk
of the precipitation tonight and tomorrow, so rain is expected for
all but the highest passes. The exception will be the Mount
Shasta Area, where local effects are expected to push snow levels
down to near 3000 feet. This will produce moderate to heavy snows
for portions of the Interstate and other area roads, especially
along highway 89 where up to a foot is possible on the passes. One
uncertainty will be road temperatures, which may initially
prevent snow accumulations, but snowfall rates could easily
surpass melting, and roads will become hazardous and slick. For
more information o this, see the Winter Weather Message at
PDXWSWMFR.
Peak storm conditions are expected to come to and end by Friday
afternoon, but with the trough and cold pool aloft, showers will
likely continue into the night. -BPN
.LONG TERM...Confidence remains high in an active pattern persisting
across the Pacific Northwest this weekend into next week.
On Saturday, the long wave trough will crash ashore with the coldest
air aloft moving inland. As a result, expect widespread showers
across the CWA. This will be the chilliest day of the longer term
with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s over the East Side and
from the mid 40s to the low 50s west of the Cascades. Instability is
highest inland over the west side and in northern California from SE
Siskiyou County to SE Lake County. Convectively-driven showers in
April often result in graupel or soft hail, so this is a possibility
in any of the heavier showers. While we can't rule out a rumble or
two of thunder, CAPE isn't all that high in the 200-300 J/KG range.
This process, however, can drive snow levels lower than they'd
typically be without precipitation. Right now, we have a snow level
near 2000 feet Saturday morning rising to around 3000 feet in the
afternoon, but these could occasionally be lower depending on
precipitation intensity. Some snow impacts are possible over the
higher passes/mountains, like Lake of the Woods, Siskiyou Summit,
Mount Shasta and Mt Ashland, especially in the morning. Snow could
even make it to the valley floor near Medford Saturday morning,
but no accumulations are likely.
Showers end quickly after sunset Saturday evening as heights rise
and short wave ridging builds in. Guidance continues to show a good
chance for frost in the valleys west of the Cascades with some areas
experiencing below freezing temperatures. Depending on the amount of
clearing we get, some areas surrounding Medford could get into the
upper 20s, adversely impacting sensitive vegetation like orchards,
backyard gardens, etc. We'll probably need a freeze watch at some
point.
Most areas are likely to be dry on Sunday, but the next front will
quickly approach the coast with rain arriving there late Sunday
afternoon, then spreading inland Sunday evening and night. Moist
onshore flow will produce showers across most of the region on
Monday, then expect another break in precipitation Monday
night into Tuesday as the front stalls just to our south.
Models are now in general agreement showing a closed low digging
southeastward over the NE Pacific Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
This will allow the front to the south to lift back to the north
across the area as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
closed low will carve out another long wave trough along the
Pacific Northwest coast Wednesday into Thursday. If this pattern
holds, the main area of precipitation will be directed into
northern California with a more showery pattern farther north.
Either way, remaining unsettled mid-late next week. -Spilde
&&
.AVIATION...06/18Z TAF CYCLE...Expect some showers area wide
this afternoon. MVFR prevails along the coast with areas
of IFR from Cape Blanco southward. Mostly VFR is expected across
the rest of the CWA, except in the Mount Shasta region where MVFR is
expected. Terrain will also be obscured. A strong front will push
into the area tonight with a period of steadier precipitation.
Strong winds will occur east of the Cascades and in the Shasta
Valley preceding the front. Low level wind shear is possible,
especially along the coast and west of the Cascades, but at the very
least, turbulence will cause some bumpy takeoffs and approaches
at all terminals. Also, a period of very strong winds will develop
overnight into Friday morning along the coast and over the east
side. Wind gusts at KOTH and KLMT could exceed 45kt. Wind
gusts of 25-35 kt are also possible at KMFR/KRBG. Overall,
expect variable ceilings with MVFR/IFR at the coast and a mix of
MVFR/VFR inland overnight through Friday morning. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 220 PM PDT Thursday 6 April 2017...A powerful
storm will move inside of 130 west longitude off the Oregon coast
tonight. This low will bring storm force winds and gales to the
coastal waters Thursday night into Friday. It will also bring very
high and very steep seas early Friday morning into early Friday
evening with peak seas of around 28 feet at 12 seconds. Seas will
subside Friday night but likely remain high into early Sunday. A
weaker front will move onshore Sunday evening and this will bring in
another round of heavy seas...but nothing like the Friday system.
High pressure will build over the coastal waters Monday...then
weaken Tuesday night. -JRS
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Friday for
ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for ORZ029>031.
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for
ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Friday for
ORZ023>025.
High Surf Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Friday for
CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ082.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
BPN/MAS/JRS