An upper low emerged from the southern plains into the Ohio Valley March 30-31 with an associated surface low lifting north into the Great Lakes. This system brought the most widespread rainfall of the month with amounts ending at 12z (8 AM EDT) on the 31st reaching 2-4 inches across parts of the North Carolina mountains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An upper low emerged from the southern plains into the Ohio Valley March 30-31 with an associated surface low lifting north into the Great Lakes. This system brought the most widespread rainfall of the month with amounts ending at 12z (8 AM EDT) on the 31st reaching 2-4 inches across parts of the North Carolina mountains. Several rain gages in Watauga County saw more than three inches including Sandy Flats IFLOWS (SDRN7) 4.55 , Watagua R/Foscoe (FOSN7) 3.82 , Boone 1 SE COOP (BOON7) 3.26 , Parkway School IFLOWS (EKCN7) and Boone RG (BONN7) 3.09 . Runoff from the rainfall pushed the Watauga River above Minor flood stage. Several roads were reported with standing water on them and a significant mudslide/debris flow was reported in the Deep Gap area, closing the Blue Ridge Parkway.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 4:18 AM EST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 518 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low and associated surface trough will pass across the Mid Atlantic Region today. High pressure will build across the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Friday... Active weather pattern today with strong upper level low over the OH Valley with sharp N-S oriented surface trough advancing east across the lower OH and TN valleys. Large area of showers and thunderstorms was moving east in advance of this system with entire forecast area subject to rain today, with widespread coverage this morning, and scattered coverage this afternoon. Thunderstorms were embedded within the rain area this morning, resulting in occasional cloud to ground strikes and brief but heavy downpours of rain. Rainfall was being enhanced near the Blue Ridge where upslope southeast wind flow was causing higher rain rates, rain gages indicating anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain overnight between Laurel Springs and Blowing Rock NC. These higher rain amounts may result in some localized flooding, but due to the dry antecedent conditions, the rain will have less of an impact with respect to flooding and more of a beneficial effect. As the surface low over Ohio crosses the mountains this afternoon, the expectation is for some clearing and a period of heating east of the Blue Ridge which will result in destabilization and re-development of a line of thunderstorms along the actual surface front this afternoon. Main concern would be areas from Highway 29 and points east where forecast CAPE of 500-1200 J/KG will promote the development of strong thunderstorms. With favorable shear anticipated, veering with height from south to southwesterly and increasing to 40-50 kts at mid-levels, some of these storms will likely become severe with potential for rotation, supporting risk for hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked areas east of a LYH-DAN line for Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon. After the cold frontal passage, conditions will improve with clearing taking place tonight. As High pressure builds in for tonight, expect breezy conditions with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. West of the Blue Ridge, and more so for the higher terrain of WV and far western VA and into the NC mountains, some lingering low clouds and light precip may continue per shallow moist northwest flow. Temperatures today will spike just ahead of the cold front with readings topping out in the 60s, possibly 70 Southside VA and the Piedmont of NC. Cool air advection tonight will permit low in the 40s, but well above freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Northwesterly flow aloft returns along with cold pool of air in low to mid levels on Saturday. Under slight cold advection aloft, 850 mb temperatures by early afternoon cool to values ranging from +1 to +5C. Increasing subsidence along with dry advection should help to dry up any lingering upslope showers along the western slopes of the Alleghany Mtns. Mostly sunny skies thereafter lead to a rather breezy day. While northwesterly flow and adiabatic downslope warming off the Blue Ridge pushes highs in northern NC and the VA piedmont into the upper 60s to low 70s, it will only top out in the upper 50s from the Blue Ridge west and will certainly feel on the brisk side in these western areas. Ridging builds in Saturday evening with northwesterly winds diminishing early. Radiational cooling along with lingering cold pocket of air aloft should lead to near to below normal lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Relatively uneventful Sunday as high pressure is in control. March sun should push highs back into the 60s to low 70s. However, as the ridge axis shifts eastward by mid afternoon pattern transitions toward one of cold air damming. Related sensible weather effects, that being easterly/southeast surface winds and increased cloud cover along the Blue Ridge and eastward develops Sunday evening. Some question how pronounced the CAD becomes as model wind fields at the surface begin to shift to a southerly direction overnight, in response to a pronounced parent upper low that digs into the mid- Mississippi Valley. Actually, the setup as suggested by model guidance looks pretty similar to that which unfolded in the past 24 hours. Kept lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s. Active weather then returns for Monday. Early Monday morning, 850 mb south-southeast winds increase to speeds of 50 to 60 kts which could lead to breezy conditions along our southern Blue Ridge and NC mountains. Strongly sheared profile is offered by the GFS with magnitudes up to 60 kts, though overcast skies and cool near-surface temperature profiles at this point appear to keep instability values modest at best. This is not too dissimilar to what's currently playing out this evening. Certainly need to monitor for potential thunderstorms particularly in the warm conveyor belt from the Blue Ridge eastward. Shown slight chances for thunder in this general area by Monday afternoon. Could see significant variation in spatial coverage in precip during the afternoon in western and southwestern counties in the lee of the Blue Ridge given the strong southerly/southeasterly flow. I've tried to account for this by keeping PoPs only in the Chance range for the afternoon across parts of the New River Valley and into the Mountain Empire region, while trending Likely elsewhere. However, as broader synoptic scale forcing approaches by evening most everywhere has at least Likely PoP by that point. QPF forecast also is rather cloudy based on large QPF bullseyes which may limit northward extent of heavier precip, though southerly upslope against the Blue Ridge. So, potential for several concerns including breezy conditions along the southern ridges as well as thunderstorms/heavy rain. Kept highs in the 60s with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Model difference expand with the second system late in the long term period (Wednesday night/Thursday)with 12Z GFS continuing a faster trend with the approach of a high amplitude upper trof. The 00Z ECMWF is much slower with the 12Z Canadian starting to trend toward the faster GFS solution. With individual GEFS ensemble member showing a large range of solutions, confidence is low on the timing with this system and leaned toward the Canadian timing which keeps temps slightly cooler Wednesday and keeps Wednesday dry. Much colder temperatures are expected behind the system very late and just beyond (Friday) this period. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across the Appalachians this morning in advance of a strong upper level trough of low pressure that will be moving from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic Region today. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR with occasional IFR VSBYs due to rain and thunderstorms. Conditions will remain poor for most of the day with improvement late in the day as winds become westerly in the wake of the storm system. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will bring improving conditions during Saturday although appears sub-VFR cigs along with a few residual showers may linger at KBLF/KLWB into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise will see VFR return later Saturday through Sunday under diminishing winds as high pressure slides across. Next similar low pressure system to that seen at the end of this week will approach by Monday with sub-VFR conditions likely returning Sunday night into Monday as rain again transitions to showers and storms to start the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...AL/PH AVIATION...PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 NCZ002>004-020-VAZ011>014-016>020-032-WVZ043-044-507-508-311945- Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Yadkin-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Patrick-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible late tonight. In addition, very heavy rainfall could occur especially near the Blue Ridge overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Potentially heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ007-009-010-015-WVZ042-311945- Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Grayson-Mercer- 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible late tonight. In addition, very heavy rainfall could occur. Southerly winds may also gust up to 45 MPH at elevations above 3000 feet later today into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Potentially heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ005-006-VAZ022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059-311945- Rockingham-Caswell-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford- Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax- Charlotte- 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and large hail will be possible Friday. Potentially heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-018-019-311945- Ashe-Watauga-Wilkes- 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible late tonight. In addition very heavy rainfall could also occur especially near the Blue Ridge. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Potentially heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
413 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017
NCZ002-003-019-VAZ012>017-032-310900-
Surry-Wilkes-Alleghany-Grayson-Pulaski-Patrick-Floyd-Montgomery-
Wythe-Carroll-
413 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017
...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
ALLEGHANY...NORTHWESTERN SURRY AND NORTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI... SOUTHWESTERN
FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN WYTHE...CARROLL...EASTERN
GRAYSON...SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...THE CITY OF RADFORD AND THE CITY OF
GALAX...
At 412 AM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms located along a line
extending from near Spring Valley to near Stone Mountain State Park
to North Wilkesboro. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.
Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms,
along with brief heavy downpours.
Locations impacted include...
Radford...
Mount Airy...
Galax...
North Wilkesboro...
and Hillsville.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3715 8055 3691 8046 3660 8054 3611 8113
3644 8105 3678 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 221DEG 43KT 3670 8110 3643 8107 3618 8113
LocontoThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads were closed by high water including the low water bridge across the Watauga River at Dewitt Barnett Road in Valle Crucis. The Watauga River at Sugar Grove (SGWN7) crested above Minor flood stage, cresting early on the 31st at 7.32 feet (Minor FS = 7 feet).
A large debris flow closed a portion of the Blue Ridge Parkway in the Deep Gap area. A smaller debris flow washed onto a portion of Route 321.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 689005, 689004.