What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 9:48 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 9:48 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1048 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep ridge over the Atlantic will continue to transport warm,
moist air into the area through the first part of the week. A cold
front approaching the area will increase chances for storms on
Monday. The front should move east across the region late Tuesday
night, allowing a brief drying trend to commence for midweek.
Showers and storms return for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT: Temps/dewpoints still look okay, so no updates
there other than adjusting hourly trends. Biggest change has been to
pops to increase along the I-77 corridor (where there's currently
thunder) and decrease elsewhere, but back to the increasing trend
again west overnight. None of the hi-res models have initialized
this line very well, which is developing along a fairly tight DCAPE
gradient, and should be able to intensify at least marginally as it
moves east into a more favorable environment (and out of our area).
Confidence remains moderate at best with convective trends late
overnight as the front continues to approach.
Otherwise, moist southerly flow continues between the Bermuda High
and a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A cold front
extends southwest from that system into the ArkLaTex region, and the
axis of its upper trough is just west of the Mississippi River. For
the remainder of the day, we will remain under weak synoptic-scale
forcing, with isolated to scattered diurnal convection. Cumulus are
seen on satellite across the CWFA, with the more congested clouds
seen over the mtns and NE GA, where some radar returns are present.
So far these cells reflect the mediocre lapse rates noted on model
analyses, mostly struggling to produce lightning. Assuming we do get
some vigorous updrafts, there is a nonzero threat of damaging winds
mainly due to the presence of dry air in the mid to upper levels.
Midlevel winds are stronger than we have seen of late, owing to the
presence of the deep trough and embedded shortwave to our west. This
will limit the pulse storm threat, but could allow some storms to
grow upscale. Currently the SPC Day 1 marginal risk looks reasonable
given the better coverage expected over the mtns. Locally heavy rain
is expected from any showers/storms.
Tonight the upper trough axis makes only slight eastward
progress, while that embedded shortwave crosses the Apps. Hi-res
model guidance generally continues to initiate isolated
cells this evening, presumably as the shortwave or old outflow
boundaries realize buoyancy that did not get realized during aftn
heating. Thus isolated PoPs last throughout the night over most of
the area. Another night of patchy low stratus and mainly mtn-valley
fog can be expected given the humid conditions.
Slightly better upper divergence will arrive on Monday as the trough
axis swings further east. As might be expected with a summertime
front, there will be basically no CAA and low-level convergence
is somewhat broad. Nonetheless likely to categorical PoP is fcst
over the NW half of the area, and chance elsewhere. Lapse rates do
not look much better, though deep layer shear further improves;
this suggests linear segments of storms may produce damaging
winds. Also note that profiles become quite moist with PWAT values
nearing 2 inches and feature a very deep warm-cloud layer. The
primary threat will probably be flash flooding, particularly with
cells that pass over saturated soils. In light of limited forcing,
it still appears this will be rather isolated, so no flash flood
watch is being issued at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: Continental frontal boundary should stall
over the area by Monday evening with some reduction in moisture
northwest of the front over the mountains with dewpoints declining
across the area by Wednesday as frontal zone edges southeastward
with a little dry advection behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
Monday night eventually decline and move southeast with the boundary
with lower POPs Tuesday and Wednesday, except for piedmont ares
where in-place moisture will continue to feed precipitation, helped
along by frontal dynamics. CAPE declines to peak values below 1000
j/kg Tuesday afternoon over piedmont areas only, declining further
on Wednesday to a negligible level. Shear on Tuesday will still be
healthy, supported by flow in upper wave, but will be best on dryer
side of boundary, and do not like prospects for severe storms on
Tuesday at this time. Monday night and Tuesday may see an average
of an additional half inch or so of rain, though there will be a lot
of point to point variability. Tuesday afternoon BUFKIT soundings
ahead of the front still have 2 inches of PW in them, and it is
possible for a few locations to receive enough rain on top of what
has been received over the last week, for some flooding threat to
continue through Tuesday.
FROPA will give some relief from warm to hot temperatures as well,
with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday running 5 degrees below
recent levels. Winds pick up some with front, reaching 15 to 20kts
southwesterly ahead of the front Monday night, and 10 to 15kts
northwesterly behind it on Tuesday; with light winds returning on
Wednesday.
Wednesday will be a relative pause before more precipitation later
in the forecast with possible tropical interaction.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Sunday: Much uncertainty in the medium range given
the potential tropical system brewing near the Yucatan Peninsula.
The GFS has shifted the track to the west but is still the farthest
east of any synoptic scale model while the ECMWF is to the west. The
Canadian is in the middle. The period still looks active even if the
western track is the eventual winner. There will be plenty of gulf
moisture advecting into the area ahead of a front slowly sinking
south from the OH river valley. All guidance has the tropical system
recurving into our area at some point, Friday for the GFS and Sunday
for the ECMWF. The front stalls to our north after the tropical
system moves through on the GFS and before on the ECMWF. Given this
uncertainty, have gone with a guidance blend for PoP and mainly
diurnal timing. This results in chance PoP for all locations
Thursday with likely PoP mountains to chance PoP elsewhere for the
weekend. This looks reasonable in this situation and toes the line
between the guidance spread and climatology. Heavy rainfall and
severe storms will be a threat, but the timing is still too
questionable to pin down a specific time frame. Have gone with a
guidance blend for temps as well which has highs bouncing around
from near to a few degrees above normal. Lows should be above normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Will leave the remaining two hours of TEMPO
TSRA in place at KCLT for the 03z AMD; the convective line has moved
slightly east but still some showery activity to the west so that
could intensify. Some new guidance coming in is indicating a lot
more pessimistic forecast for daybreak with IFR conditions, but not
ready to bit off on that just yet. No other changes at this time.
Otherwise, continued previous trend of at least brief MVFR cigs
around daybreak for all but KAND, and naturally lasting a little
longer at KAVL. Gusty SW winds will pick up again Monday afternoon
as a front pushes in, and PROB30 TSRA is warranted for all sites,
with probs high enough to go ahead and introduce VCTS for KAVL.
Outlook: Cold front will stall over the area on Tuesday, maintaining
scattered convection and associated periodic restrictions. Morning
fog/stratus is likely to return Tue-Wed mornings. Drier conditions
may finally return during the latter part of the week if the cold
front can push south of the area.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 100% Med 78% High 98% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 96% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 88% Med 76% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 80% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 98% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 88% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDPHazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 9:16 PM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the late evening and early overnight. Frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible with the
storms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
..Monday...Severe weather with flash flooding possible. A cold front
will move into the region from the northwest on Monday and slowly
cross the region Monday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms with
quarter-size hail and brief, damaging winds will be possible during
the afternoon and evening hours. Very heavy rainfall will be
possible with the thunderstorms as well, and isolated flash flooding
may develop in areas repeatedly affected by thunderstorms.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 8:10 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
910 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
NCZ036-037-056-057-069-190215-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
910 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE...IREDELL...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...
At 910 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Huntersville, or near Denver, moving northeast at
30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Mocksville, Mooresville, Maiden, Westport, Troutman,
Cooleemee, Cleveland, Catawba and Harmony.
Heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail will be
possible over these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3583 8046 3584 8048 3583 8049 3582 8047
3551 8087 3551 8091 3550 8093 3547 8095
3545 8094 3542 8098 3558 8123 3605 8071
3605 8069 3586 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 221DEG 28KT 3555 8100
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 9:09 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
SCZ009-014-190300-
York SC-Chester SC-
1009 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...
At 1008 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Chester, or near Chester State Park, moving northeast
at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Chester, Newport, Lesslie, Richburg, Lowrys, Chester State
Park, Catawba, Mcconnells and Leeds.
Heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and up to half inch hail
will be possible over these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3483 8090 3479 8088 3456 8119 3457 8134
3462 8142 3464 8142 3502 8109 3488 8088
3487 8088 3484 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 219DEG 24KT 3463 8125
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 9:21 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
NCZ037-057-190245-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DAVIE AND WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...
At 1021 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Salisbury, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Cleveland, Spencer,
Fork Church, Advance, Piedmont Research Station and Farmington.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039 3585 8042
3583 8043 3584 8047 3583 8049 3582 8048
3579 8048 3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8041
3558 8056 3570 8073 3605 8059 3605 8050
3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 230DEG 31KT 3571 8055
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 9:32 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1032 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
NCZ071-072-082-190300-
Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1032 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...
At 1032 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroe, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, South Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Indian Trail,
Weddington, Stallings, Unionville, Wesley Chapel and Wingate.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3496 8030 3481 8054 3482 8063 3506 8086
3533 8050 3527 8045 3519 8051 3518 8050
3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
3516 8041 3518 8037 3508 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 230DEG 31KT 3495 8058
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 9:47 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
NCZ057-071-072-190315-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
AND ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...
At 1046 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles north of Salisbury to 5 miles northeast
of Uptown Charlotte, and moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Northeast Charlotte, West
Concord, Harrisburg, China Grove, Spencer, Landis and Enochville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8025 3550 8030 3527 8045 3528 8086
3579 8054 3578 8051 3578 8048 3574 8046
3572 8042 3572 8034 3571 8032 3568 8033
3567 8031 3563 8029 3563 8027 3561 8024
3557 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 274DEG 18KT 3576 8046 3529 8077
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 10:15 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1115 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
NCZ036-057-071-072-190345-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1115 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...
At 1114 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Kannapolis, or near Enochville, moving northeast at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, West Concord, Cornelius,
Davidson, China Grove, Spencer, Landis and Enochville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 8064 3548 8087 3578 8052 3578 8050
3577 8049 3578 8048 3573 8045 3572 8042
3573 8039 3572 8038 3572 8034 3571 8033
3568 8033 3567 8031 3564 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 220DEG 45KT 3550 8065
KRENTZ