What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 9:59 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 9:59 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1059 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure centered to our east will weaken through
mid week, allowing deeper moisture to spread over the forecast area
from the south. As it does, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase each day through the work week, with
chances remaining elevated through the weekend. A cold front is
expected to approach the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM Update: The lee trough that spawned the early morning
showers north of Charlotte extends southwest to near Greenville
attm. This had initially created a patch of stratocu that is now
dissipating with diurnal warming. A few towering cu are seen
across the foothills N and NE of GSP, with one radar echo now
seen as well. Interestingly HRRR has been doing nothing with this
activity, instead keying on the mountain ridges (a few stronger cu
are also forming there). Updated PoPs thru the aftn are initially
a bit higher along the I-85 corridor and points just N due to this
observed activity, though overall the best chances still are over
the mountains. Updated temp trends partially take into account
cool outflow spreading into the upper Piedmont as depicted by RAP.
Otherwise: A broad upper ridge continues to dominate the Southeast
this morning, however showing signs of weakening as expected,
while a Bermuda oriented surface high controls the flow down
low. Moisture advection over the last few days has allowed for
surface Tds to reach into the mid/upper 60s this morning, with Ts
holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s across much of the region.
Given expected/further weakening of the upper ridge axis, this
increased BL moisture will provide more favorable profiles for
convection than days past. With that, NAM soundings exhibit
higher LFCs than yesterday as well as sbcapes in 1500j/kg range
this afternoon. CAM guidance favors spreading of mtn convection
along outflows into the Fthills/Piedmont of western NC as well as
the SC Upstate and northeast GA by late afternoon into the early
evening hours. Therefore pops have increased to include high
chance to low likely levels atop the high terrain of NC/GA/SC,
tapering to mid/high chances eastward into the I77/I85 corridors.
With surface temps expected to reach into the upper 80s to near 90
yet again today, think this combined with ample mixing will yield
higher LFCs than yesterday presenting more favorable conditions for
modest dcape and thus downburst potential. Therefore, although
widespread svr storms are not expected, wouldn't be suprised to
see a few reaching svr limits today with damaging downburst winds
and large hail being the primary threats. Weak steering flow will
also likely result in slow storm motions, therefore brief heavy
downpours are also certainly possible. Pops will taper regionwide
into the overnight hours as heating is lost.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 am Tuesday: Increasing moisture and suppression of the
surface ridge associated with the Bermuda high to our southeast
should result in higher CAPE values across the Piedmont Wed
afternoon. Continued poor lapse rates will limit the extremity of
the buoyancy, but sbCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg appear likely
Wed afternoon. Short term guidance depicts better definition of a
lee side/thermal trough, and this along with terrain effects should
initiate convection across the area by mid-afternoon. Cells and
attendant outflow boundaries should subsequently propagate toward
the SE throughout the remainder of the afternoon and early evening,
warranting 50-60 pops across the mtns and foothills, and 30-40
across the Piedmont. The increased buoyancy will support a slightly
better probability of a few pulse severe storms, especially with any
cell mergers that occur.
The trend of a daily increase in diurnal convective chances
continues into Thursday, as thermal trough remains in place, while
the wind shift associated with a back door cold front moving south
across the Mid-Atlantic Piedmont could make its way into our
northern zones Thu afternoon, providing an additional source of low
level convergence. The synoptic pattern may also become more
supportive of convection by the end of the day, as heights fall
across the region in response to a short wave trough digging
southeast from the Ohio Valley. Likely pops will be focused across
all of western NC into the GA/SC mtns. Shear will remain weak and
instability moderate, so the severe storm threat will continue to be
limited to perhaps a handful of pulse severe updrafts.
The upper air pattern and increasing moisture content should support
at least isolated convection continuing into the overnight hours Thu
night/early Friday. Concerns for heavy rainfall/localized flash
flooding may increase by the end of the period after a couple of
afternoons of solid coverage of slow-moving showers and storms. This
will especially be the case of the leading edge of the back door
cold front pushes into our area as some guidance is suggesting,
which would seem to create a ripe situation for cell training.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 am Tuesday: The convectively active pattern should
continue through the medium range, as a mid-level shear axis is
progged to become established from the Deep South into the Tennessee
Valley early in the period, with resultant deep SW flow maintaining
plenty of heat and humidity across the western Carolinas and
northeast GA. This supports above-climo pops for afternoon/evening
convection Fri through Sunday.
By early next week, the global models indicate a strong short wave
will carve out an anomalously deep trough across the eastern Conus,
perhaps driving a more significant surface boundary across our
region on Monday. Thus, another day of solid chance to likely pops
is advertised for Monday, while there may be a better chance for
increased wind shear/organized convection as the height gradient
increases across the East. Max temps will be near to a category or
so above climo, while mins should be a solid 5 degrees warmer than
normal through the period. The good news is that some relief from
the active convective and hot/humid weather could be in the works
after Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT/KHKY: VFR expected through the period with the exception
of MVFR visb/cig restrictions by way of afternoon convection today,
as well as the possibility of ground fog at KHKY Wednesday morning.
Low/mid level debris clouds highlight the skies this morning
amidst weak sly sfc flow. Deep layer ridging will weaken with
time as llv moisture continues to increase thanks to the flow
around the Bermuda high over the Atl. With that, guidance favors
improved lapse rates today with weaker CIN to the east across
the NC Piedmont. Thus, amending for TEMPO TSRA during peak
heating with MVFR stratocu mentioned amidst prevailing low VFR
cu; timing has been refined per consensus of recent HRRR runs.
Conditions will improve gradually into the early evening hours
with loss of heating, thus all wx was removed beyond 02-03z.
Elsewhere: Pattern very similar to that of KCLT above. Mostly VFR
through the period aside for restrictions at MVFR levels associated
with afternoon/evening convection. Taf tsra timing was again based
on CAM guidance which favored early afternoon initiation across the
mtns to affect KAVL, then spreading east/southeast into the Upstate
to affect the SC sites by mid/late afternoon. Prob30s remain in
all tafs with lengthy timing given slow nocturnal stabilization
this evening. Did also include mention of MVFR fog at all sites
on Wednesday morning as any locales that receive precipitation
will likely be most susceptible to such.
Outlook: Improving boundary layer moisture combined with a weakening
upper ridge will lead to increasing chances for SHRA/TSRA each
day this week. Morning visibility restriction chances will also
increase, mainly in the mountain valleys, but also possible outside
of the mtns where any precipitation has recently occurred.
Confidence Table...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% Med 66%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 97%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CDG/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG/WimberleyHazardous weather outlook, Jun 13, 3:49 AM EST, 9 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-140900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
449 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into the evening. While the main threats will
be from cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, a few
of the storms could produce brief severe weather in the form of
damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
LANE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 13, 11:49 AM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ063-064-131745-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...
At 1248 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated slowly-moving thunderstorms
with torrential rainfall along a line extending from 4 miles west of
Brevard to 14 miles southeast of Franklin, and moving south at 10
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Cashiers, Lake Toxaway, Looking Glass, Gorges State
Park, Highlands, Balsam Grove, Connestee and Whiteside Mountain.
Very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible
in these areas. Low-lying and poor drainage areas may flood as a
result.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 3512 8318 3533 8275 3513 8264 3512 8266
3513 8268 3510 8270 3509 8273 3508 8275
3507 8275 3507 8278 3509 8279 3500 8311
3502 8313 3504 8313 3506 8317 3507 8317
3508 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 348DEG 8KT 3524 8282 3508 8316
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 13, 11:54 AM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ053-505-507-508-131730-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
1254 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 130
PM EDT...
At 1253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Marion, or 7 miles south of Old Fort, moving
southeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Chimney Rock State Park, Shingle Hollow, Union Mills, Thermal City
and Sugar Hill.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3560 8207 3558 8205 3554 8208 3554 8203
3555 8201 3547 8192 3541 8218 3540 8220
3540 8223 3554 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 328DEG 9KT 3553 8214
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 13, 12:31 PM EST, 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ508-131800-
Greater Rutherford NC-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM EDT...
At 131 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Rutherfordton, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Bostic, Shingle Hollow, Green
Hill, Thermal City, Sunshine and Union Mills.
Wind gusts up to 35 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3552 8197 3554 8189 3545 8173 3525 8195
3545 8214 3549 8212 3554 8206 3554 8203
3555 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 312DEG 11KT 3548 8201
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 13, 12:40 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ065-509-510-131815-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND WEST
CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...
At 140 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hendersonville. This storm was nearly stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Flat Rock, Laurel Park, Saluda, Valley Hill, Dana,
Tuxedo, Edneyville, East Flat Rock and Crab Creek.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3529 8220 3519 8238 3521 8238 3521 8239
3519 8242 3517 8244 3516 8246 3517 8245
3518 8246 3517 8249 3518 8249 3532 8256
3542 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 326DEG 1KT 3531 8242
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 13, 12:53 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ033-503>505-131830-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Avery NC-
153 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHERN
AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 152 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Newland, or near Linville Falls, moving southwest at
10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Crossnore, Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To
Grandfather, Table Rock, Lake James, Lake James State Park, Ingalls,
Altamont, Pineola and Ashford.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3601 8178 3596 8181 3595 8180 3595 8178
3593 8178 3593 8177 3576 8184 3586 8204
3588 8202 3587 8200 3589 8198 3590 8198
3595 8204 3597 8205 3608 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 031DEG 8KT 3598 8188
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 13, 1:02 PM EST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
NCZ508-131830-
Greater Rutherford NC-
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Morganton, or 7 miles west of South Mountains State
Park, moving southwest at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Thermal City, Sunshine and Union Mills.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3560 8174 3561 8172 3559 8171 3558 8169
3544 8170 3534 8174 3548 8202 3553 8197
3554 8185 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179
3559 8177 3561 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 030DEG 9KT 3557 8178
HGNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 708946, 708981, 708978, 708947, 708980, 708948, 708953, 708961, 708977, 708958, 708960, 708976, 708962, 708964, 708963, 708969, 708970, 708974, 708975, 708972, 708971, 709835.