A mid and upper level trough moved into a very warm and humid airmass and helped to enhance nocturnal thunderstorms to produce severe wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
A mid and upper level trough moved into a very warm and humid airmass and helped to enhance nocturnal thunderstorms to produce severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 6:28 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 728 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will prevail with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday. A weak cold front will stall across the area, increasing the coverage of thunderstorms and potential for excessive rainfall Sunday and Monday. The front should tend to dissipate as it lifts northward Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will reassert itself thereafter, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 PM Friday...Convection has been a little more sparse than anticipated so far, but there are multiple small cells assembling into an east-west line from near Elizabethtown and Lumberton westward to Laurinburg and Bennettsville. Visible satellite also confirms these cells are embedded within a larger region of towering cumulus that extend all the way to the northern Outer Banks, and also southwestward across Florence to near Orangeburg. Although there is a 500 mb shortwave expected to move into the eastern Carolinas tonight, it may arrive too late to provide much assistance to the current convective situation. Changes with this update include fine-tuning dewpoints and temperatures for the position of the seabreeze and the incoming cooler but more humid maritime airmass, and trimming back PoPs for most of the coastal counties to only 20-30 percent. Discussion from 300 PM follows... A Heat Advisory is in effect for all but our westernmost South Carolina counties through 7 pm. Heat index values will generally peak in the 105-107 degree range across the advisory area and up to 104 elsewhere. It will be warm and muggy overnight as nocturnal jetting keeps winds elevated and prevents lows from dropping below the mid and upper 70s. Highs on Sat should be a degree or two cooler than today with clouds/convection likely developing earlier in the day, resulting in greater cloud cover during the time of peak heating. Also, the flow should be slightly more SW, allowing the seabreeze to progress inland to a greater extent. At this time, peak heat index values on Sat are forecast to be in the 100 to 105 degree range, so just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Thunderstorms have developed N, S and W of the Forecast Area this afternoon. We expect showers and thunderstorms to fill in across our area through the afternoon with a more organized area/line of thunderstorms possibly moving in from the W ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. This trough should allow at least scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist after dark with a general weakening and reduction in coverage late eve and especially overnight. High downdraft CAPE values and pronounced inverted-V profiles are supportive of a brief strong to damaging downburst. Storm motions are relatively quick and this will limit the excessive rain threat. The limiting factor for more robust updrafts should be the shallow layer of near saturation between 5-7 kft as a westerly and downsloping flow persists through a deep layer. On Sat, The upstream cold front will be considerably closer than today and the thermodynamic environment will be structured similarly. A couple of mid-level impulses are expected to impact the area, one Sat afternoon and another Sat night. There should be a lull in convection in the morning in the wake of overnight impulse. However, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop along and ahead of cold front during the afternoon with prevailing flow taking the convection progressively E/ENE with time. Thunderstorms will again have the potential for strong to damaging downbursts. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...Primary feature of note this period is slow migration of a weakening surface trough along the Carolina coastal plains Saturday night, then weakening along the coast by Sunday night. During this period an upstream upper trough will slowly de- amplify, helping to wash out the coastal boundary in a gradual fashion. Scattered showers and TSTMS will remain in the mix this period as low-level convergence will be in supply along the surface trough, coupled with a healthy dose of precipitable waters around 2 inches this period. Highest pop values will be favored along the eastern 1/3 of the forecast zones of NE SC and SE NC. The SPC paints a marginal risk for this period for strong thermal insolation and moist buoyancy leading into Saturday evening, but with run-of-the- mill mid level lapse rates, the severe threat remains marginal. The down draft CAPES will decrease as H7-H5 moisture spikes up, lessening potential for strong winds due to evaporative cooling. Sunday presents more TSTM opportunities due to interaction of the sea breeze boundary and the weakening coastal. This potential lift combined with ample moisture profiles could lead to a non-zero threat of a wet microburst Sunday, although surface heating should be less intense by this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Unsettled conditions Monday as a weakening cold front combined with broad eastern CONUS troughing brings tstms to the region. Ample cloud cover and subtly lowered thicknesses in the vicinity of this front will keep temps Monday at or slightly below climo, some welcome relief after a very hot few days. This front will wash out across the area Tuesday in response to the large scale ridging from the West flattening out and expanding to the Southeast. This causes thicknesses to increase and the front will dissipate on Tuesday allowing Bermuda type ridging to re-assert itself from offshore. This will remain the case through late in the week in a more amplified pattern as mid-level ridging increases across the Southeast. With the ridge overhead and W/NW flow developing mid to late week, POP will decrease, especially Wed/Thu as PWATs drop to 1.5 inches, and even diurnal activity may be isolated despite increasing heat and humidity. Late in the week a trough will try to dig back into the area bringing renewed chances for convection, but the ridge may hold firm and will keep temps above climo Wed-Fri. Heat index values mid to late week will likely exceed 100 once again as well. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...For at least the third day in a row, scattered thunderstorms have developed across the eastern Carolinas within a hot and humid airmass. Although coverage is probably only 10-20% currently, beneath these storms IFR conditions and strong, gusty winds are occurring. For the airports we forecast for in our area the probability of thunderstorms beginning at 00Z is quite low. New storms could develop between 00-04Z approaching the FLO and LBT airports, while closer to the coast weakening storms (probably showers by this point) could approach the MYR, CRE, and ILM airports later in the evening. After 06Z, VFR conditions are likely, and these should continue through at least early Saturday afternoon. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible mainly in the afternoon and evening. There flight restrictions should become longer in duration Sunday and Monday when thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 PM Friday...Current pier observations show winds blowing a solid 20 knots all along the coast, with the Frying Pan Shoals buoy showing these similar wind speeds exist offshore as well. Seas currently 3-4 feet should build another foot overnight with dominant wave periods remaining around 5 seconds. No significant changes are necessary to the forecast. Discussion from 300 PM follows... A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline will be in place through 8 am. A slightly tighter pressure gradient ahead of Piedmont trough and nocturnal jetting will keep sustained winds near 20 kt with higher gusts through tonight. The gradient will change little on Sat ahead of a slow moving cold front. This may necessitate an extension of the precautionary headline. Seas will be 3 to 5 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...An improving marine trend is in the cards this period as an approaching surface trough weakens along the coast. SW winds may still be a bit frisky Saturday night with gusts to 25 KT initially, and an 'Exercise Caution' statement or even 'Advisory' may be in effect Saturday night. By early Sunday winds will begin to ease gradually and Sunday night should settle to 10 KT with gusts to 15 KT. Thus it appears no marine headlines will be needed for Sunday afternoon and night. TSTMS will be in ample supply this period and mariners are advised to get radar updates before heading out as some storms could be strong to severe. The sea spectrum will be a mix of 4-5 foot SW waves every 4-6 seconds, subsiding a foot or two into Sunday, and a steady SE swell of 1-1.5 feet every 9 seconds. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure offshore will maintain its influence through mid-week despite a stationary boundary weakening along the coast. This front will be strongest Monday, but should have no impacts to winds over the waters, and as it weakens and dissipates Tue/Wed the return flow will become reinforced. SW winds are expected through the period, at speeds of 10-15 kts with little fluctuation. A SE swell and SW wind wave will combine in the spectrum through the period, but with both having low amplitude, significant seas will be just 2-3 ft each day. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 702 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 NCZ087-096-099-105>109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-056-081130- Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender- Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro- Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Horry- Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown- 702 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty winds this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Saturday and Sunday. Hear index near 105 degrees likely Saturday afternoon and greater than 100 degrees possible Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ110-SCZ054-081130- Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry- 702 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Saturday and Sunday. Hear index near 105 degrees likely Saturday afternoon and greater than 100 degrees possible Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. AMZ250-252-254-256-081130- Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 702 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The adjacent Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Exercise Caution. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Exercise Caution. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 9
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
627 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
NCZ096-072245-
Bladen NC-
627 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrells, or 17 miles west of Wallace, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3473 7839 3472 7838 3470 7837 3470 7836
3469 7835 3468 7835 3467 7832 3465 7832
3464 7831 3463 7832 3460 7830 3459 7828
3456 7831 3472 7842 3474 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 239DEG 31KT 3468 7829
8Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
723 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
NCZ087-096-072345-
Robeson NC-Bladen NC-
723 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 722 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lumberton, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Bladenboro, Robeson Community College, Smiths,
Howellsville, Tolarsville, Barker Ten Mile, Butters, Hestertown, Tar
Heel and Southeastern Regional Medical Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3450 7905 3467 7911 3480 7883 3468 7875
3452 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 252DEG 24KT 3463 7898
8Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington NC 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017 SCZ024-033-053-080000- Inland Horry SC-Marion SC-Dillon SC- 742 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... At 741 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Mullins, moving northeast at 25 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mullins, Lake View, Gapway, Kemper, Nichols and Carolinas Hospital System - Marion. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds, small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes. && LAT...LON 3420 7897 3407 7923 3419 7935 3437 7917 TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 234DEG 19KT 3420 7925 8
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
NCZ096-080015-
Bladen NC-
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 747 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White Oak, or 11 miles northwest of Elizabethtown, moving northeast
at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Ruskin, Bladen Community College, Duart, Ammon, White Oak, Jerome,
Dublin and Tar Heel.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3472 7849 3459 7873 3468 7881 3469 7881
3474 7886 3477 7886 3485 7878 3485 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 234DEG 19KT 3474 7876
8Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
SCZ053-080015-
Inland Horry SC-
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 800 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Green Sea, or 9 miles east of Mullins, moving east at 30 mph.
Small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Green Sea.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3408 7881 3406 7916 3413 7922 3413 7921
3414 7920 3415 7921 3416 7920 3418 7919
3418 7917 3420 7917 3422 7914 3423 7914
3423 7913 3424 7913 3429 7906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 272DEG 25KT 3416 7909
8Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington NC 813 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017 NCZ099-SCZ053-080030- Columbus NC-Inland Horry SC- 813 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING GREEN SEA AND TABOR CITY... At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Cherry Grove, or 15 miles east of Mullins, moving east at 40 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Tabor City, Sidney, Green Sea, Clarendon, Cherry Grove and Cerro Gordo. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3407 7912 3426 7910 3434 7895 3416 7876 TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 249DEG 37KT 3421 7898 TRA
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:46 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree reportedly fell onto a power line on Floyd St. and caught fire. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Half the roof of a barn was reportedly blown off on Montague Rd. Several trees on the property were reported split or down. One tree was uprooted. Small hail was also reported. Radar data was used to confirm the time of the event.
A couple of trees were reported down on Herrings Chapel Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 713618, 713813, 713621.