What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 2:00 PM EST, 4 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 2:00 PM EST, 4 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front is expected to remain across the region through
Tuesday while a second front approaches from the west. This next
front will move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier
high pressure is expected for the end of the week leading to hotter
conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Robust showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop
northeast for the rest of the afternoon...especially within the
greater buoyancy from the Blue Ridge to the Piedmont. Within the
high pwat airmass, the greatest threat from storms this afternoon
will be heavy or excessive rainfall where storms train. Looking
further west, upper level impulse will continue driving stout storms
east toward the mountains, and cam guidance drives a swath of this
convective rainfall into the Southern Appalachians this evening. Very
heavy rainfall remains the greatest concern, and isolated excessive
amounts are possible as well. Behind this s/wv, a distinct precip
probability minima is likely overnight, with the pre-dawn sensible
weather featuring warm and muggy conditions, along with areas of low
clouds and fog.
Upper heights rise a tad atop the SE conus on Tuesday but the flow
remains quasi-zonal if not a little weaker. Subtle impulses within
the mean flow are likely to translate eastward atop the region
enhancing diurnally driven thunderstorms. Just like today, pwat
values will remain above normal, giving rise to another day of a
locally heavy possibility. Max temperatures are slated to be a few
degrees warming than today, and with sfc dwpts remaining in the
lower 70s, heat index values will push the mid 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday: The upper level flow remains rather zonal
through this part of the forecast cycle, with embedded pockets of
vorticity riding along the mean flow. Meanwhile, the evolution of
the Bermuda High will try to nudge H5 heights slightly northward.
Complicating matters is an old surface frontal boundary which the
models continue show meandered, or waffling, north and south in
parts of our forecast area (FA).
It is nearly impossible to try and time each little wave rippling
through the flow, which would aid any diurnal convection. PWATS
will continue to remain elevated 1.5 to 2.0 inches, or more, with
SBCAPES respectable.
Therefore our plan is to let one wave of energy pass by Tuesday
evening, and bring POPS down through the night. We will then restart
the diurnal cycle Wednesday in the mountains, and let cold pool
interactions drive activity south and east during the afternoon and
evening. Note, we gave a slight nod to the NAM along our I77
corridor where convergence was noted at the surface, and
therefore we started POPS a little earlier.
Once again we will then draw back POPS Wednesday night, and then
reintroduce Thursday, mostly in the chance category.
Of course in both aforementioned scenarios, a subtle movement of the
surface boundary would locally enhance convective action
Note our temperature scheme has been adjusted for a diurnal cycle,
and guide continues to nudge temperatures up. In fact, if little
mixing occurs Wednesday and Thursday afternoon ( prior to storms )
some places in NE Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western
Piedmont of North Carolina will have heat indices near or just above
100 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: Mid-level ridging will be in place across
the southeastern states Thursday and Friday. This will allow highs
to be in the lower 90s on Thursday and Friday across the Piedmont.
With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to
around 100 both days outside of the mountains. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the highest pops over the Blue Ridge
mountains.
A trof in the mid levels will move across the Ohio Valley on
Saturday and northeastern states on Sunday. While pops will not rise
much, the lower heights will lead to temperatures closer to normal
and a few degrees cooler than Thursday-Friday.
Another mid level trof will move into the Ohio Valley next Monday
which will keep temperatures across the area less hot than late this
week. There will continue to be scattered shower and storm activity.
Concerning conditions surrounding the eclipse on Monday, August 21:
Expect partly cloudy conditions during this period. There will
likely be some scattered showers and storms around during the
afternoon. Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 80s outside
the higher elevations with a few degrees cooldown as the eclipse
occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Progressive destabilization will continue, allowing deep
convection to develop further ne across the piedmont this afternoon.
Current thinking is that storms could affect the terminal after 22z
today. Until then, periodic MVFR cigs may still occur. Diurnally
enhanced thunderstorm activity will slowly diminish later this
evening but may not totally dissipate. Within the very moist blyr,
flight restrictions in the form of low clouds and fog are likely to
develop during the pre-dawn hours.
Elsewhere: Anticipate mainly lower VFR cigs with showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping from the west this afternoon ahead of an
approaching shortwave. KAVL should see TSRA the earliest, by 19Z,
with activity spreading to the foothills from 20Z through 00Z. Winds
will be NE early and become southeast to southerly later in the day.
Another night of low stratus is expected tonight as the
precipitation winds down.
Outlook: Chances for restrictions will remain elevated this late
week as a moist pattern persists. Therefore rounds of
afternoon/evening shra and tsra are favored each day, with morning
visb/cig restrictions possible as well for locales that experience
recent rainfall, as well as in the mtn valleys to affect KAVL.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% Med 61% High 85%
KGSP High 98% High 99% High 86% High 90%
KAVL High 99% High 83% Med 62% High 81%
KHKY High 85% Med 63% Med 69% Med 72%
KGMU High 97% High 97% Med 66% High 86%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 96%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...CDG/SW
AVIATION...CSHHazardous weather outlook, Aug 14, 4:20 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>507-509-151030-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
520 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight,
before waning in the wee hours. The primary threats with these storms
will be torrential rainfall, which may cause local flash flooding and
cloud to ground lightning. Additionally a few storms may pose a risk
of damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-151030-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
520 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight,
before waning in the wee hours. The primary threats with these storms
will be torrential rainfall, which may cause local flash flooding and
cloud to ground lightning. Additionally a few storms may pose a risk
of damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday... Excessive heat possible. Heat indices are likely to
approach or exceed 100 degrees in the afternoon.
..Friday... Excessive heat possible. Heat indices are likely to
approach or exceed 100 degrees in the afternoon.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
Sturey
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 14, 4:26 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
526 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
SCZ006-010-142200-
Anderson SC-Greater Greenville SC-
526 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall 11 miles northeast of Anderson, or
near Williamston, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Belton, Williamston, West Pelzer and Fork Shoals.
Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3442 8257 3461 8259 3474 8232 3455 8223
3454 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 232DEG 22KT 3459 8248
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 14, 4:34 PM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
534 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
NCZ071-SCZ009-142200-
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
534 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND EAST CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...
At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northeast of Rock Hill, or near Fort Mill,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
South Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, Fort Mill, Pineville, Carowinds
and The Arboretum.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and
torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3503 8079 3502 8082 3500 8084 3508 8091
3503 8090 3501 8091 3499 8089 3497 8089
3496 8088 3501 8101 3517 8096 3510 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 209DEG 14KT 3503 8092
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 14, 4:56 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
556 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
SCZ006-007-142245-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
556 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WEST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...
At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or near
Mauldin, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Greer, Mauldin, Five Forks,
Duncan, Reidville, GSP Airport, Donaldson Center and Taylors.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and
torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3473 8236 3485 8243 3499 8217 3477 8203
3476 8212 3478 8213 3478 8215 3475 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 244DEG 12KT 3480 8230
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 14, 5:06 PM EST, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
606 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
NCZ071-142230-
Mecklenburg NC-
606 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall 8 miles south of Uptown Charlotte,
or near Pineville, moving northeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Central Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, Pineville, Freedom Park,
Carowinds, Southpark Mall, Charlotte Douglas Airport, The Arboretum
and South Charlotte.
Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 8084 3506 8089 3511 8093 3509 8096
3509 8097 3523 8099 3517 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 205DEG 11KT 3511 8090
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 14, 5:09 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
NCZ048-053-142300-
Buncombe NC-Madison NC-
609 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...
At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 7 miles east of Marshall, or over Mars Hill, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Mars Hill and Faust.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and
torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3591 8249 3591 8248 3590 8246 3590 8245
3586 8242 3582 8241 3582 8238 3581 8237
3576 8259 3582 8264 3593 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 231DEG 9KT 3583 8255
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 14, 5:37 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
637 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
SCZ007-142300-
Spartanburg SC-
637 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall 4 miles west of Spartanburg, or
near Roebuck, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Duncan, Lyman, Wellford, Roebuck, Reidville, Moore, USC
Upstate, Croft State Park and Cedar Springs.
Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3477 8208 3494 8219 3503 8194 3485 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 246DEG 17KT 3492 8201
JMP