An upper level low that slowly moved east across southern Arizona, combined with a strong area of surface high pressure that built down the Front Range of the Rockies, produced the perfect pattern for strong gap winds across central New Mexico. Record warm temperatures from the 10th and the 11th came to an abrupt end as a cold front surged southwest across the plains and through gaps of the…
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An upper level low that slowly moved east across southern Arizona, combined with a strong area of surface high pressure that built down the Front Range of the Rockies, produced the perfect pattern for strong gap winds across central New Mexico. Record warm temperatures from the 10th and the 11th came to an abrupt end as a cold front surged southwest across the plains and through gaps of the central mountain chain early on the 12th. Peak wind gusts around 60 mph were common below Tijeras Canyon and within the Tularosa Valley. The strongest winds occurred in the area below Abo Pass where a peak gust to 88 mph was reported near U.S. Highway 60.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 2:50 AM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 250 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A vigorous cold front combined with a potent Pacific low will provide widespread precipitation to northern and central New Mexico starting today and lasting through Tuesday. There will be all kinds of precipitation types with a mix of sleet...snow and rain across the east central and southeast plains areas later tonight into Monday. The Rio Grande Valley will experience a mix of rain and snow. Mountain areas will experience heavier snowfall with amounts up to 20 inches in some higher locations. Damaging wind is expected to impact portions of the lower and middle Rio Grande valley as today progresses due to the cold frontal push from the east. A quieter and warmer weather regime is expected by midweek but this should be short lived as another system Pacific system approaches the state next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Decided there was enough confidence to go ahead and issue warnings/advisories for a large portion of northern and central NM. Continued to make the start and end times the same with the highlights running from 5 pm MST today to 5 pm Tuesday. Can certainly see some western/central areas seeing the highlights go off earlier than 5 pm MST Tue but trying to make this event as simple as possible in terms of impact conveyance. Highest confidence for snowfall totals found across the east slopes of the central mountains and adjacent high plains where diffluence/upslope and isentropic lift properties align. The higher elevations of the Gila region also stands to receive copious amounts of snow due to the upper low translation. Wind advisory for the far eastern plains will probably get cut earlier than the 2 pm expiration time. Lots of forecast challenges exist with the current storm system. Main ones being snow amounts within the Rio Grande Valley and precipitation type across the SE and EC plains. Looks like most of the forecast soundings show more sleet/snow/rain across the SE third or so. Showed some modest ice accumulations in the ice grid. Main period of impact is from 6z 13th to 0z 14th. The intense and damaging wind flow which will impact portions of the Rio Grande Valley today will diminish some this evening but still looking at some shadow or downsloping impacts to impact precipitation for a bit. Eventually...precipitation will fill in and the main impact period appears to be later tonight into Monday morning before snow levels rise a bit Monday afternoon. Snow levels will then lower again within the greater valley area Monday night. Despite some possible convergence enhanced snowfall across western Bernalillo county, including the Rio Rancho area, decided to go winter weather advisory versus warning. Think ground temps will be quite warm and dull the road impacts some. Decided to add Santa Fe and Carrizozo zones into the warning highlights due to updated snow amounts there. Models seem to be trending the upper Pacific low further north and thus taking the mean 700 mb temp low pressure core more over our forecast area. The depth of the current cold frontal push also looks to be pretty decent. Based on PUB VAD wind profiler...the depth of the cooler airmass is up to 10,000 feet. This gives better confidence for the high wind warning event for portions of the Rio Grande Valley as well. Lastly...snow amounts may be a bit overdone across the lower elevations by 1 to 2 inches due to the antecedent warm ground but will just have to see how things play out. Models show some significant banded precipitation periods with intense snowfall rates very possible and could overcome the warmer ground temps. Models all in unison in terms of a drier and warmer trend by middle of next week. Another unsettled Pacific low pattern is expected by next weekend. CFSv2 appears to be more and more correct in terms of its prediction of the latter half of Feb being unsettled. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... After a couple days with well above normal temperatures, and in many cases record-breaking highs, major trend reversals are underway as a backdoor cold front plows southwest across the area and an upper low approaches from over the northern Baja Peninsula. The end result will be much colder temperatures, higher humidity and a widespread wetting event, which will begin in earnest tonight and continue into early Tuesday. Significant snow accumulation is likely in the mountains and across the Eastern Highlands, with lesser amounts across the plains and in valleys. Vent rates will trend down today compared to yesterday, then continue down Monday and generally be poor to fair. The upper low will pull east, away from New Mexico Tuesday with only a few showers remaining. Otherwise, after a couple days of below normal temperatures a new warming/drying trend will begin Tuesday as a ridge builds over the Intermountain West and shifts southeast over New Mexico by Thursday. Temperatures will be back above normal by the end of the week and vent rates will start to show some improvement, but are still forecast to remain mostly poor to fair. Both the 00z ECMWF and GFS show another wetting system impacting the area over the weekend, but differ on the details (i.e. closed low vs. open trough). At this point, relatively high forecaster confidence on increasing moisture and decreasing temperatures next weekend, but lower confidence on the extent of wetting precipitation. 11 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A strong cold front has begun to push into NE NM and will continue to slide southward across the plains with gusts near 40-45kt possible. The front will push westward into the Rio Grande Valley, with gusts near 50kt possible at KABQ. An airport weather warning for winds will likely be issued later tonight. Additionally, low clouds will develop across NE NM behind the front with MVFR/IFR cigs possible, particularly at KLVS due to upslope. Cigs will also gradually lower across NW NM as top-down moistening occurs. RA or SN showers will likely develop by mid day Sunday and increase in coverage throughout the afternoon. Several bands of precipitation may result in IFR or lower cigs and vsbys in SN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 54 33 44 29 / 50 70 60 50 Dulce........................... 50 28 41 25 / 50 90 60 40 Cuba............................ 48 27 40 23 / 60 90 60 70 Gallup.......................... 53 31 42 28 / 80 80 50 50 El Morro........................ 51 27 38 25 / 90 90 80 60 Grants.......................... 50 26 37 24 / 70 80 80 60 Quemado......................... 54 31 42 26 / 90 90 80 60 Glenwood........................ 65 35 48 32 / 90 80 80 70 Chama........................... 45 25 39 20 / 40 90 80 60 Los Alamos...................... 48 26 36 25 / 20 90 70 60 Pecos........................... 44 22 35 23 / 70 100 90 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 25 39 19 / 20 80 70 80 Red River....................... 36 23 34 16 / 30 90 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 39 23 35 17 / 40 90 70 90 Taos............................ 47 27 39 22 / 20 90 50 70 Mora............................ 39 21 37 21 / 60 90 80 90 Espanola........................ 53 29 42 26 / 10 80 70 60 Santa Fe........................ 47 26 35 24 / 20 100 90 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 25 36 25 / 20 90 90 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 29 38 29 / 20 90 80 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 29 39 30 / 10 90 70 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 32 41 30 / 10 90 70 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 30 42 29 / 10 90 70 70 Los Lunas....................... 57 32 40 28 / 10 90 70 60 Rio Rancho...................... 55 30 42 29 / 10 90 70 70 Socorro......................... 61 33 41 30 / 20 90 80 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 25 34 26 / 30 100 80 90 Tijeras......................... 48 26 36 26 / 30 100 80 90 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 23 32 23 / 70 90 80 90 Clines Corners.................. 39 21 28 22 / 80 90 80 90 Gran Quivira.................... 50 24 37 24 / 70 90 80 90 Carrizozo....................... 53 29 40 27 / 60 80 80 90 Ruidoso......................... 46 24 33 23 / 80 90 80 90 Capulin......................... 41 25 35 22 / 10 90 40 80 Raton........................... 44 25 38 25 / 20 80 50 90 Springer........................ 51 25 38 22 / 20 80 70 90 Las Vegas....................... 39 20 32 21 / 60 90 70 90 Clayton......................... 44 26 35 27 / 10 70 70 80 Roy............................. 48 23 34 25 / 30 90 70 80 Conchas......................... 47 28 36 29 / 70 70 80 90 Santa Rosa...................... 47 27 34 29 / 70 80 80 90 Tucumcari....................... 49 27 33 29 / 20 60 80 90 Clovis.......................... 48 30 32 29 / 20 80 90 90 Portales........................ 55 29 35 29 / 20 80 90 80 Fort Sumner..................... 51 29 35 31 / 30 80 90 90 Roswell......................... 55 32 36 32 / 20 80 80 90 Picacho......................... 55 29 37 31 / 40 90 80 90 Elk............................. 48 26 32 26 / 50 80 80 90 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following zones... NMZ519-520-524-525. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>540. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for the following zones... NMZ530-534>536. && 50
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 451 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 NMZ501>540-121200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 451 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Red Flag warning is in effect across the eastern plains this afternoon. Low humidities will combine with strong winds to create heightened fire danger levels. Strong winds will also impact the Sangre de Cristos today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Combination of a back door cold front and Pacific low will provide significant snow accumulations to portions of northern and central New Mexico starting Sunday to Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday. Front Range locations are expected to be favored but a secondary area of critical winter weather will be found across portions of the east central and southeast plains. Mixed bag precipitation including sleet and freezing rain will be possible there late Sunday night into Monday. A high wind watch has also been posted Sunday for portions of the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley as well as the upper Tularosa Basin due to strong to very strong east wind potential. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 50
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public weather station northwest of Carrizozo along U.S. Highway 380 reported sustained winds up to 43 mph for several hours on the morning of the 12th.
Albuquerque Sunport reported periodic sustained winds up to 41 mph for several hours on the morning of the 12th.
A large, dead cottonwood tree was blown down at Constitution and Louisiana. No property damage was reported from this fallen tree.
A public weather station directly below Abo Pass at Tierra Grande reported a peak wind gust to 88 mph. A nearby station southwest of Abo Pass at Burris Ranch Airport reported a peak wind to 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 670047, 670045, 670043, 670046.