Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

Currently have scattered thunderstorms across the region this
evening. May continue to see storms into the overnight hours but
maybe more isolated. For now, will continue TEMPO TS at most
terminals through 02Z and amend later if needed. Storms have been
producing very heavy rain and may result in brief periods of low
vis. Similar to this morning, could see low clouds affect a few
terminals early Saturday so will continue to advertise MVFR at all
but CNM and INK. VFR conditions will return by mid morning
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Radar is showing scattered showers and storms developing across
the area this afternoon. The motion will be slow and erratic,
mainly outflow dependent as opposed to moving with the
environmental flow which is very weak. This means some areas may
get in excess of an inch or two of rain while others nearby get
very little if any. This will create some potential for flash
flooding but it will be very localized.

This activity is due to an upper level trough that extends from
West Texas to the Central Plains. The trough will weaken and move
east over the next 24 hours and high pressure over the western
U.S. will extend east bringing drier air and an end to our rain
chances next week. High pressure and dry conditions do not usually
mean cool air for our CWA, but that is what MEX guidance is
indicating. The reason the MEX is so cool is the GFS is advecting
cooler air from Hurricane Harvey west due to easterly and
northeasterly surface winds around it's circulation. While there
is no doubt this will occur, it is hard to imagine we will stay in
the 80s without a cold front or appreciable rain so this forecast
is generally several degrees higher than MAV/MET/MEX guidance and
closer to the ECE guidance.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  88  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  87  67  89 /  40  40  20  20
Dryden                         73  92  71  91 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 62  80  62  81 /  40  40  20  20
Hobbs                          66  85  64  87 /  40  40  20  10
Marfa                          61  84  60  83 /  30  40  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  89  68  90 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  88  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
Wink                           70  89  68  90 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
215 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 /115 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico through tonight. The stronger storms will be
capable of brief gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall
will be the main concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2017

NMZ029-033-252145-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-
308 PM MDT FRI AUG 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MDT...

At 308 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McDonald, or 7 miles south of Tatum, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
McDonald.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 10329 3317 10343 3325 10326 3314 10307
      3298 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 298DEG 14KT 3314 10329

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

TXZ075-260100-
Pecos TX-
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms just north of I-10 east of highway 67 intersection
with I-10, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield and Girvin.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 272 and 311.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding very low visibility. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 10206 3075 10270 3108 10266 3106 10232
      3103 10229 3104 10225 3103 10221 3100 10219
      3101 10218 3100 10214 3099 10209 3099 10207
      3100 10205 3100 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 032DEG 22KT 3092 10232

49