Strong Wind in Nevada, May 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 PM PDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the west will keep more active
weather away from the area through the middle of next week. As a
result, expect less wind and warmer temperatures along with a slight
chance of mountain showers at times.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Bringing the heat is the common model theme for the weekend and
upcoming week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern.
However, there are enough wrinkles in the upper level flow and model
agreement departures to lower confidence levels in the temperature
forecast. Today's high temperatures across the region are really
struggling to reach forecasted highs but should be close by the end
of the afternoon. A push closer to seasonal conditions is still
expected by Saturday with a period of above normal temperatures set
for Sunday through mid week. How much above normal is the question.
A blend of the best performing model guidance ended up lowering next
week's temperatures several degrees than what we current have
forecast. MOS guidance however, is holding steady for early next
week so little change to the high temperature forecast was made
beyond Sunday.

A few light showers were moving through Lincoln County this
afternoon and are beginning to spread into northern Mohave County.
They are not expected to amount to much and there may be a lingering
shower in Mohave County early this evening before dry conditions
spread over the entire forecast area through at least Sunday
morning. Morning models have the upper flow buckling Sunday
afternoon and they paint some light QPF over the southern Great
Basin. Then, depending on the model, there could be some light
showers...or not...early to mid week with low pressure forecast
southwest of the area and ridging over the western states.

Wind...which has been the most featured story of late...is less of a
concern with localized afternoon breezes expected but nothing of
significance.

Overall, it looks like a pretty decent forecast for engaging in
outdoor activities in and around the southern Great Basin and Mojave
Desert region through the middle of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A passing disturbance will kick up
northerly winds this evening/tonight for a few hours with lighter
winds overnight and most likely tomorrow, though a few northeast
breezes cannot be ruled out. CIGs should remain above 10 kft tonight
and quickly clear by tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A passing disturbance will bring gustier winds to most
of the area this evening and tonight. Generally calmer winds with a
few north breezes expected tomorrow, with stronger winds limited to
the Colorado River Valley. CIGs down to 10 kft in some areas with
generally blue skies expected for most tomorrow.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

Discussion...Salmen
Aviation...Steele

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