Wildfire in Nevada, July 3 to 10, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
248 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over the Great Basin will keep conditions dry with
temperatures running above seasonal averages through the 4th of
July. A weak disturbance may produce isolated dry thunderstorms
by midweek, with increased thunderstorm potential by next weekend
as a stronger push of moisture approaches the region. Typical
afternoon and evening breezes are expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Primary weather related concerns continue to be the very dry
conditions surrounding the 4th of July Holiday, afternoon winds
gusting 20-30 mph, and the potential for dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday.

Temperatures continue to run 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages
with the region under the western periphery of a building Four
Corners high pressure system. Dry, weakly forced flow has allowed
widespread single digit afternoon humidity and the next few days
will be no exception for western Nevada. Expect average zephyr
winds through Tuesday with gusts generally 20-25 mph.

Models remain consistent showing a shortwave moving through the
region Wednesday. NAM/GFS continue to expand coverage of isolated
thunderstorm potential laterally and temporally. As a result,
isolated coverage was spread northeastward late in the afternoon
and evening to include the Gerlach area. Also, instability
remains into the nocturnal hours; it would be reasonable for
thunderstorms to continue along the wave front overnight. For now,
have only highlighted the possibility without strictly including
them in the forecast. Any thunderstorms that do form will be
moving fairly quickly resulting in mostly dry storms while capable
of producing wind gusts up to 50 mph. These storms will have the
potential for new fire starts especially where the cells move over
western Nevada valleys and mid slopes that are covered in grasses.

Also, gusts for Wednesday will be marginally stronger in the 20-30
mph range. These winds will be capable of pushing fire rapidly
through this year's continuous grass coverage, at least up to
around 7000-7500 feet. Extra care should be exercised to minimize
the chances of starting a fire. Personal use of fireworks or other
high risk activities are discouraged. Boyd.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

Few changes made to the long term with the focus on the heat and
thunderstorm potential. The ridge is forecast to remain near the
Four Corners region into the weekend with a south to southwest flow
aloft. This flow is expected to become more southerly as the high
builds a bit westward toward California for the weekend.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average with the
hottest day looking to be Saturday at this time. Records do not look
likely, but that could change if the ridge were to build even
further west. Typical afternoon zephyr winds look likely each
afternoon with highs along the Highway 95 corridor 100+.

Thunderstorm potential does not look as great this morning as it did
at this time yesterday. That said, the heat and a little bit of
moisture added from the Southwest Monsoon typically results in at
least isolated convection. Any storms would likely stay south of
Highway 50 on Saturday and will gradually spread north Sunday into
Monday with a more southerly flow. Being on the western portion of
the ridge, the moisture increase does not look great. In addition,
the flow aloft will be moderate, keeping the storms moving and on
the drier side. Wallmann

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with afternoon SW winds
gusting to 20 kts or so 22-04Z. A bit stronger winds gusting to 25
kts Wednesday, and there will also be the potential for isolated
thunderstorms south of I-80 during the late afternoon and evening.
Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno