Damaging Wind in Nevada, April 3, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
959 AM PDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will quickly move through today providing gusty
winds, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions
of southeastern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Dry, warm weather
is expected through Thursday when the next system approaches
bringing in windy conditions and next chances of showers late this
week.

&&

.UPDATE...Cold front draped across south central Nevada this morning
with radar detecting light showers or sprinkles across Lincoln
County. Upper level shortwave approaching Tonopah will dig quickly
southeast across Clark County this afternoon. Expect skies to cloud
up quickly this afternoon as air mass quickly becomes unstable as
upper level dynamics coincide with the cold frontal passage. Best
coverage of showers and thunderstorms looks to be in eastern Clark
County between 2 and 6 pm this afternoon. For Mohave County best
coverage looks to be between 2 and 8 pm this evening. Wind Advisory
for Esmeralda and central Nye Counties still looks on track.
Forecast look fine, no update necessary.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM PDT Mon Apr 3 2017
.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.
Shortwave trough will traverse the area today and exit to the
east late tonight. This impulse will increase chances for rain and
isolated thunderstorms primarily during the afternoon and evening
hours across Lincoln, eastern Clark, and Mohave counties. Pre-
frontal westerly winds will increase across San Bernardino and
Mohave counties early this afternoon as cold front approaches the
area. Highest winds today will be associated with the cold
frontal passage which is expected to enter Esmeralda, Nye, and
Inyo counties early this afternoon and continue progressing
southward reaching southern Mohave county by tonight. Winds
across Esmeralda and central Nye are expected to maintain elevated
gusts of around 40 to 45 mph this afternoon and evening so have
left the Wind Advisory in place along with the mention of blowing
dust. Other areas could see localized gusts of this strength this
afternoon but with the brief nature of these winds have not
included in the Wind Advisory. Precip chances and gusty winds should
decrease tonight as shortwave exits and high pressure builds in.
Increasing cloud cover this afternoon will hold off max temps a
couple degrees compared to Sundays max temps with a shot of
slightly cooler air behind the cold front bringing lows back down
closer to seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

High pressure will be pushing into California Tuesday with mostly
sunny skies over the forecast area. Some northerly breezes may
linger, mainly down the Colorado River valley, but wind speeds there
look to be well below Lake Wind Advisory levels. Temperatures will
cool a few degrees compared to Monday across roughly the southern
half of the area but will start to warm a touch across the north.
High pressure over the area Wednesday will lead to mostly clear
skies, light winds and about 5 degrees of warming compared to
Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday will push the ridge of high pressure east into the Rocky
Mountain Region. As a result we will likely see some increase in
high clouds, mainly across the north, along with some southerly
breezes in the afternoon. Despite falling heights, good mixing will
result in additional warming with high temperatures Thursday 5 to 10
degrees above normal. A strong jet will move into California
Thursday night and Friday with a pretty decent moisture tap
resulting in significant precipitation for much of the Sierra.
However, the heaviest precip will be on the west side of the Sierra
and most of our CWA will be shadowed. However, we are still looking
at a pretty good chance of precipitation spilling over onto the
eastern Sierra slopes with model guidance indicating potential some
pretty decent QPF at higher elevations Friday and Friday night. Snow
level at this time is forecast to be near 8000 feet Friday, lowering
to near 6500 feet Friday night. Southwest winds will increase across
much of the CWA Friday with potential for advisory level wind speeds
being reached. An upper level trough will push east a little closer
to the Pacific Northwest coast Saturday which may help spread the
moisture a bit farther east into mainly northern Lincoln County with
precipitation likely continuing in the Sierra. We should see some
cooling Saturday with the upper low pushing closer and potentially
increased cloud cover. For Saturday night and Sunday there is
general model agreement that a trough will move east across the
forecast area with a chance of showers across the Sierra and
southern Great Basin area. There are some timing differences between
the models and differences in placement of precipitation so
confidence is fairly low. For now I left the Mojave Desert zones
dry. Regardless of which model verifies, we should see temperatures
cooling to roughly 5 degrees below zero.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds are expected through late
this morning. Cold front will approach and pass Monday afternoon
with scattered shower activity possible. Winds are expected to
become gusty, around 25 knots, and shift to the northwest as front
passes around 21z. Winds decrease this evening shifting to the
north tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...West to southwesterly winds are expected ahead of an
approaching cold front which will pass through the area from
north to south throughout the afternoon and evening. Winds will
become gusty and shift to the northwest as front passes.
Widespread gusts around 25 to 30 kts will be possible with locally
higher winds expected across Esmeralda and Nye counties today.
Best chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be across Lincoln, eastern Clark, and Mohave counties this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

Update...Pierce

Guillet/Harrison

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