Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 19, 2017

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 19, 2017
Start: 2017-07-19T16:45
End: 2017-07-19T18:26
Location: Nebraska

July 19, 2017 · NWS LBF · 5 events in 1 county or zone

A cluster of thunderstorms in southern South Dakota merged into a quasi-linear system in north central Nebraska during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Large hail and severe winds were reported in Holt County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

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Tropical storms and surge
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Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LBF wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 3:54 PM CST, 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:54 PM CST, 51 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
454 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017
Updated forecast for severe thunderstorm watch

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The model blend of HRRR, HRRR exp and RAP are close to the synoptic
NAM and GFS. Weakly organized MCS activity is expected this evening
across Nrn Neb which could last into Thursday morning. 500 mb winds
aloft remain weak at 25 kt or less but moisture is robust with
ambient precipitable water north of 1.5 inches. The models suggest
just an isolated heavy rain potential with the storms tonight.

The forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward
propagating cold front. POPs for this forecast are limit at 30
percent. Our friendly RAP model continues to show very warm
temperatures near 15C at 700mb which could represent significant
inhibition for storm development.

The temperature forecast uses blended bias corrected guidance for
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight and blended guidance plus
bias correction Thursday for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
north. Upper 90s to around 100 are expected south and a heat
advisory may be necessary across Chase, Hayes and Frontier Counties.

The NAM, GFS, GEM and SREF blend suggest additional MCS activity
north of the stationary Thursday afternoon across Nrn Neb. Winds
aloft are still weak, less than 25kt in the NAM and GFS, and there
are timing differences.  The GFS is about 6 hrs faster than the NAM
which holds off on the MCS until Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The models show MCS activity growing upscale across Nrn Neb Thursday
evening. The outflow from these thunderstorms should sweep south and
cool down Swrn Neb Friday. Bias corrected model data from the NAM,
GFS, ECM and GEM models still forecast highs well into the 90s to
around 100 Friday so their is a dispute in the forecast as to how
warm it will be. Despite the outflow, h700mb temperatures in the
models appear to rebound to the 16-17C range which is very warm.

All models cool temperatures Saturday as the h500mb ridge moves into
the midsouth. The upper level ridge remains south Sunday and builds
west into the desert Southwest. This sets up northwest flow aloft
with cooler Pacific and Canadian air moving into Nebraska Sunday
through Wednesday.

The rain forecast is less predictable. The cooler temperatures aloft
and northwest flow will support thunderstorm development off of the
Black Hills and Big Horns. Scattered rain chances are in place
Friday and Saturday associated with a cold front drifting south
through the Central Plains. Moisture becomes limited Sunday and
beyond for generally isolated chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR is generally expected this afternoon through Thursday morning.

The model blend of HRRR, HRRR exp and RAP are close to the synoptic
NAM and GFS. Weakly organized MCS activity is expected this evening
across Nrn Neb which could last into Thursday morning. The
forcing is off the Black Hills and associated with a southward
propagating cold front.

None of the models indicate fog development tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for NEZ038-069>071.

&&

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 2:12 PM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 /212 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees across much of western
and north central Nebraska during the early evening.

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening, mainly along and north of a line from Oshkosh to Tryon
to Burwell. The best chances exist this evening into the small
hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Heat index values are likely to reach or exceed 100 degrees
Thursday and Friday across parts of southwest and north central
Nebraska. Additional heat advisories are in place Thursday for
parts of southwest and south central Nebraska.

Scattered short-lived severe thunderstorms are possible along and
north of a line from Oshkosh to Elsmere to O'Neill. Elsewhere,
isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible.
Current thinking is the best window for thunderstorms will be
Thursday evening and night. Damaging winds and hail are the main
hazards, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

While thunderstorms are forecast Friday and beyond with the best
chances occurring mainly in the afternoon and evening, the risk
of severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 4:31 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
531 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             11 S BUTTE              42.75N 98.88W
07/19/2017  M0.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKULIK

Local storm report, Jul 19, 4:45 PM CST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             11 NE ATKINSON          42.65N 98.84W
07/19/2017  M0.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN REPORTED AS WELL AS HAIL

&&

RKULIK

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 146 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:46 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Holt

When: July 19, 4:45 PM CST
Where: Holt County, 0.51 mi W of Atkinson
Measured: 1.5 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.530, -98.980

Thunderstorm Wind, Holt

When: July 19, 5:00 PM CST
Where: Holt County, 0.51 mi W of Atkinson
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 42.530, -98.980

Downed trees and power lines and minor building damage were reported in Atkinson.

Hail, Holt

When: July 19, 5:47 PM CST
Where: Holt County, 3.16 mi SSE of Emmet
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.440, -98.770

Hail, Holt

When: July 19, 6:14 PM CST
Where: Holt County, 13.44 mi SW of Atkinson
Measured: 2.75 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.370, -99.120

Hail, Holt

When: July 19, 6:26 PM CST
Where: Holt County, 13.45 mi NNW of Swan Lake
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.350, -99.120

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Nebraska in 2017 Every state in 2017 This day in weather history Warnings in Nebraska, July 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 705471, 705477, 705472, 705473, 705474.