A cluster of thunderstorms with locally damaging winds moved east-southeast across the Arkansas border counties during the late afternoon hours. The storms intensified as afternoon warming increased mixed-layer cape to around 1,500 j/kg.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A cluster of thunderstorms with locally damaging winds moved east-southeast across the Arkansas border counties during the late afternoon hours. The storms intensified as afternoon warming increased mixed-layer cape to around 1,500 j/kg. The combination of moderate instability and moderately strong deep-layer wind shear produced organized storm structures. A short bowing line of storms caused sporadic wind damage southeast of Doniphan. The storms formed ahead of a cold front that extended from central Illinois southwest across the Ozarks of Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 20, 3:14 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 414 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A cold front was located over central Missouri this afternoon, roughly near a kstl-ksgf line at 19z. A complex of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri will continue to track east-southeast across parts of west Kentucky through early this evening. This complex may impede development of organized showers/storms across sw Indiana and the I-64 corridor. Therefore, only scattered showers and a few storms are forecast tonight over those areas. The heaviest rainfall will likely be over se Missouri tonight, where some training of convective echoes is possible as the front becomes more west-east oriented. On Friday, the cold front will move down across Tennessee and Arkansas. However, the 850 mb front is expected to stall along the Interstate 64 corridor. This will result in a moist southwest flow overrunning the surface front. There may be enough elevated instability for some thunder south of the 850 mb boundary. Rain is very likely across the region as a 500 mb closed low approaches from the Plains. QPF varies greatly among the models. There are large differences in the placement of the heaviest qpf from model to model. Locally heavy rain is possible where any elevated convection becomes persistent. Highs will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s in the cooler north surface flow. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 414 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 The long term discussion period includes the latter half of the heavy rainfall event for the Quad State region. Given WPC, blended model guidance, and collaborative QPF, at least half of the 2.5 to 3.25 inch rainfall totals from tonight through daytime Saturday will be centered on Friday night (roughly 1.5 inches). At this point in time, plan to hold off on any Flash Flood Watch for parts of the Quad State region for Friday night. The area of greatest concern for excessive rainfall will likely be Southeast Missouri, with secondary areas of concern over parts of extreme Southern Illinois, the Purchase area of West Kentucky, and central sections of the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky. The WPC QPF branch does have most of this area under a slight chance for excessive rainfall for the day 2 time period (covering Friday night). However, in coordination with our Service Hydrologist and surrounding offices, the lack of consistent and widespread QPF the last two to three days may provide enough drainage and percolation of water through the soil to slow an early runoff potential. The big key will be the amount of training of thunderstorms over Southeast Missouri tonight into early Friday. If this antecedent rainfall can provide enough saturation for the Friday night convection, a Flash Flood Watch may be warranted, especially for Southeast Missouri. A lot of this will be dependent on the amplification of the mid/upper level low as it moves through Southern Missouri, as well as the degree of moisture advection and warm cloud processes, given the limited instability (lack of widespread thunderstorm coverage) with this event. Will emphasis heavy rainfall and minor flooding potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and other communication avenues for now. Beyond Saturday, the closed low will slowly shear out in a northeast to southwest fashion, moving the heaviest rainfall east of the area. Ridging will build in to the area Monday and Tuesday. A northern stream, low amplitude trough will develop and amplify in the northwest quarter of the U.S., with most of the energy and moisture focused along the warm frontal zone north and northwest of the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. At this time have greater than 50 percent forecast confidence with the weather systems from Friday night through Tuesday, with less than 50 percent confidence on the timing and position of systems Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Mainly VFR sky conditions, with an increasing chance of convection through the day. Gusty SSW winds 15-20 kts at times. Cold front should push through this evening, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing. In the wake of the front, cigs should lower to MVFR with NW winds 5-10 kts, generally from 03-06z, on through the overnight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...GM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 425 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-211000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 425 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind, and marginally severe hail 1 inch in diameter will be possible. Storms may produce locally heavy rain in excess of one inch, which may produce isolated flooding, especially across Southeast Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall from 1.5 to 2.5 inches is forecast Friday through early Saturday. This may result in minor, short duration flooding mainly in low lying, poor drainage areas. The area of greatest concern for flooding potential would be across Southeast Missouri, West Kentucky, the southern tip of Illinois, and central sections of the West Kentucky Pennyrile. Another chance of thunderstorms is possible next Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... We request spotters report in with any severe weather and rainfall reports in excess of one inch. CTN/Smith
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 PM CDT THU APR 20 2017
MOZ086-087-111-201945-
Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-Scott MO-
207 PM CDT THU APR 20 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOLLINGER...NORTH CENTRAL
SCOTT AND CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...
At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glen Allen, or near Marble Hill, moving east at 30 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Scott City, Chaffee, Marble Hill, Kelso,
Delta, Gordonville, Dutchtown, Glen Allen, Patton, Millersville,
Leopold, Burfordville, Whitewater, Allenville and Glenallen.
LAT...LON 3746 9013 3744 8944 3743 8943 3740 8942
3735 8943 3734 8948 3731 8951 3729 8952
3727 8951 3725 8949 3725 8946 3721 8947
3719 8946 3718 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 268DEG 24KT 3731 9007
psThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 175 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:36 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down, blocking Route Y north of Doniphan and Route K northeast of Doniphan.
Moderate damage occurred to three homes, mostly due to trees falling onto roofs. Another home received minor damage due to a power line weatherhead being pulled from the structure by a downed tree. Two vehicles were damaged by falling trees. One vehicle received minor damage, and the other was moderately damaged. Numerous trees were uprooted or snapped. The damage area was both north and south of Highway 142 near the intersection of County Road 24.
A semi-tractor trailer was overturned on U.S. Highway 67 about one mile north of the Arkansas-Missouri state line. The driver was not injured.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 685809, 685808, 685811, 685812.