Flash Flooding and Flooding in Missouri, April 16 to 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

The MCS that brought showers and storms to the region earlier
today had made its way to the east of the Ozarks this afternoon.
The remaining cloud cover was helping to keep temperatures in
check a bit with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 as of 2
pm. In addition, the mixing that occurred in the atmosphere
earlier today will make it more difficult for additional storms
to form this afternoon. As a result, lowered rain chances through
until this evening as a short wave moves into the area for
tonight.

The front responsible for the MCS looks as though it has decided
to stall from Lamar to Rolla. This will become a focus for
additional rainfall and storms expected tonight. Some isolated
showers may occur later this afternoon into the early evening
hours, but the main area of rainfall is expected tonight and
through early Monday morning. Some locations may see an additional
inch to inch and a half of rainfall. With some locations across
the western Ozarks and southeastern Kansas having received good
rainfall early this morning, this additional rainfall may lead to
some localized flooding. Instability and shear with tonight's
convection look to be limited, especially if we remain cloudy
through today, which should be the case. Despite the limited
dynamics, an isolated strong to severe storms may be possible
with the primary concern being hail to quarter size and some wind
gusts near 50 mph.

A drier surface high will filter into the area from the north
through the day Monday which should help to push the rainfall
south of the area into Arkansas. This would make for a fairly
nice second half of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

The area will be under the influence of a weak ridge / somewhat
zonal flow aloft for Monday night into early Wednesday. This will
bring southerly surface winds and increasing moisture. Afternoon
temperatures will be on a slow climb with low to mid 80s for
Wednesday. This pattern will also bring the potential for isolated
to widely scattered showers or a storm, but this will be a
function of any short wave or wiggle that moves through the upper
level flow. As a result, timing and coverage of these elements
will be a mesoscale issue. Broad scale models show spotty
rainfall but many areas will remain dry.

A more potent storm system begins to impact the region later in
the week. A front will slide to just north of the region late
Thursday and stall, as an upper level low moves into the plains
and towards the Ozarks for Friday into Saturday. This would bring
better widespread chances for rainfall and storms to the region.
It will also bring a cooler airmass that may be slightly below the
seasonable temperatures for the second half of April with highs
in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across
southern Missouri tonight as a front settles south into the
region. MVFR conditions will become widespread with localized
pockets of IFR possible around thunderstorms.

The showers and thunderstorms will then end from west to east
Monday morning, however MVFR ceilings will remain for most of the
day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
803 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
803 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms and the risk for cloud to ground
lightning will increase overnight across southeastern Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. There will be the potential for thunderstorms
to train over the same locations across portions of western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas. This will result in at least a
limited risk for flash flooding.

In addition to the threat for flooding, there is the potential for
a few storms to produce hail up to the size of quarters across
southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible over several
days from mid to late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann