Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Mississippi, June 2, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1154 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1008 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the region. The
convection that has dumped 3.5 inches and prompted the FFW for
Gibson/Carroll counties is slowly weakening. For the remainder of
the night expect some patchy fog and mild temperatures. There is
still a reservoir of unstable air across north Mississippi where
the activity has been muted this evening. Latest CAMs and the NAM
develop some convection between midnight and sunrise across north
Mississippi. Seems to be associated with a weak disturbance in
the westerly flow aloft. Seems prudent to keep a small pop across
north Mississippi to account for this possibility. Update already
out.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/

Currently a few strong thunderstorms were slowly drifting west
from near West Memphis to Forrest City Arkansas with nickel size
hail being reported in South Memphis and 46 kts at the West
Memphis airport. Other convection on radar...which has been more
persistent...was slowly advancing north from the ARKLAMISS. Short
term model guidance shows this activity weakening over the next
few hours as it moves into the far southwestern Delta
counties...leaving the remainder of the region with the isolated
pop-up variety through sunset. Current temperatures were in the
low to mid 80s with light east through south winds.

Tonight through Monday...current activity will diminish tonight
with heating...leaving for partly to mostly cloudy skies over the
region. Lows will be similar to this morning. For tomorrow and
Saturday have kept rain chances at or below 50 percent through the
period. Weak ridging aloft depicted by the models will provide
for less storm coverage...until Sunday when the upper flow
strengthens from the Northwest and deeper moisture pools ahead of
an approaching cold front. Isolated strong storms will be
possible during the peak heating hours each day...with the
potential for some severe weather late Sunday into Monday.
Confidence of this occurring is low at this time...as shear will
be marginal. Bumped high temperatures up a degree or two through
the period...with skies generally partly sunny and winds light.

Tuesday through next Thursday...surface high pressure will build
south from the Midwest and persist through this period. Dewpoints
will fall into the 50s...with north to northeast winds providing
for very comfortable temperature's and humidity. A second
reinforcing front will slide across the lower Ohio Valley late
Thursday...but the lack of moisture should keep the Midsouth dry.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should persist for much of the forecast period.
Some scattered thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon and into
the early evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the south at
around 5 knots for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-030545-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
and evening hours Friday and Saturday. A severe storm or two will
be possible Sunday and Monday with an approaching cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
831 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATWOOD                  35.98N 88.67W
06/01/2017                   CARROLL            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEGGY LANE IS FLOODED OUT NEAR HWYS 79 AND 70A.

&&

CSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
925 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGVILLE             36.25N 88.15W
06/01/2017                   HENRY              TN   PUBLIC

            POWERPOLE DOWN ON OLD UNION LOOP.VIA TWITTER AND LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

AJC