Flood in California, June 2 to 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
830 AM PDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions this weekend through the
middle of next week as high pressure builds across the southwest.
Slightly cooler temperatures by the end of next week as a low
pressure system move across the region.

&&

.UPDATE... No updates needed this morning. High pressure will keep
skies clear, winds light, and temps creeping above normal this
afternoon.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

A high pressure system will continue to build over our area from the
southwest through Saturday before moving eastward as a trough digs
across the Pacific NW early Sunday. Clear skies and hot temperatures
are expected through most of the weekend with a few high clouds
accompanying the approaching upper trough. Only impacts expected with
the trough passage are breezy southerly winds Sunday afternoon into
the evening. As pressure gradients continue to look unimpressive as
the upper trough will be well to our north, wind speeds should
remain well below advisory levels. Biggest concern through the
weekend are high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday, as they will
be the warmest seen this year. Current forecast is calling for
about 5 degrees above normal Friday and 8 to 10 degrees above
normal both Saturday and Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

A hot and dry pattern is in store for our region much of next week
before a downward temperature trend and increasing winds develop
going into next weekend. The models are in good agreement through
Wednesday that our forecast area will be on the west side of a broad
ridge centered over the intermountain states. This will keep a dry
and very warm air mass overhead and high temperatures will generally
be around 10 degrees above normal...with afternoon readings in the
Mojave Desert zones expected to range from 103 to 110 degrees. The
medium range models indicate a broad Eastern Pacific trough will
then begin to move inland Thursday and Friday. However, there is
considerable disagreement in depth and timing of this trough. The
operational GFS depicts a deeper and more closed low than the ECMWF
solution over the Pacific Northwest by Friday. Though temperatures
will begin to decrease, confidence is low in specific temperatures
and wind speeds by Friday and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS was used
for the wind grids.
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.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light diurnal wind pattern is expected to
remain through the weekend. Winds should be below 10 kts today
following the typical drainage pattern. Winds should favor an
easterly direction through most of the afternoon before southwest to
west winds take over after sunset (03-04Z). Clear skies expected
through Saturday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light diurnal wind pattern will remain today into
Saturday. Wind speeds should be below 10 kts with mostly clear skies
all day Friday and Saturday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER....High pressure will build over the region
today and tomorrow, bringing above normal temperatures and low
relative humidities. Sunday, an approaching trough from the NW will
intrude our area, causing breezy winds Sunday afternoon into the
evening. With critical relative humidities, critical fuels, combined
with breezy winds may cause hazardous fire weather for zones 462 and
464. Though, at this time winds look marginal for critical fire
danger for those zones. Windy conditions are evident for
southeastern Inyo County as well, mainly for the Death Valley
terrain, but are not expected to exist for more than 6 hours.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warmest stretch of temperatures along the east slopes
of the Southern Sierra Nevada of Inyo County expected over the
coming week. Unregulated creeks will be running high and fast with
very cold water. Extra caution should be used near creeks, and other
waterways this weekend.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...No significant weather is
expected through the weekend and much of next week. Spotter
activation is not anticipated.
&&

Short Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Kryston
Long Term...Adair
Update...Guillet

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