A low pressure system moving through the Lower Great Lakes dropped moderate snow over portions of central Upper Michigan from the 1st into the 2nd.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A low pressure system moving through the Lower Great Lakes dropped moderate snow over portions of central Upper Michigan from the 1st into the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 12:44 AM EST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1244 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over
the wrn CONUS with several weak shortwaves embedded in the wsw flow
toward the nrn Great Lakes. A shortwave and area of 850-700 mb fgen
is supporting a band of light snow from cntrl mn into western Lake
Superior. Another shortwave to the se and assoc isentropic ascent
was producing shra and a few tsra over central Lower Mi. Over Upper
Mi, a trough/cold front has moved through wrn Upper Mi into ncntrl
Upper Mi, and this trough/front will continue to progress e through
the rest of Upper Mi this evening.
Tonight, the fgen band should support some light snow over the west
and into the east overnight as the colder air moves in. Dry air in
mid-levels in ice nucleation region could also support some frdz
this evening in the west and especially ncntrl Upper Mi where
upslope nne flow will enhance lift. A strengthening gradient between
low pres into lower Michigan and high pres over nrn Ontario will
result in a stiff nne wind into the region. 850 temps in the -4C to
-8C will be marginal for lake enhanced snow but with strong upslope
flow some light accumulations of 1 to possibly 2 inches can be
expected in the higher terrain of north central and far west Upper
Michigan.
On Wed, shortwave now in the base of wrn conus trough will be
lifting ne into Lower Mi late tonight and then another shortwave
from the Central Rockies associated with the mid-level trough axis
will follow later in the day on Wed strenghtening the associated sfc
low moving through Lower Mi. Mid-level q-vector convergence and fgen
associated with the shortwave and the deepening sfc low track could
support an inch or two of light snow to southeast portion of the
cwa. Some light lake effect could linger over north central cwa with
NNE winds and shallow moisture to near 2kft with temps of -11c to -
12c. Otherwise expect only a dusting of system elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017
The main weather concerns in the extend forecast will be the
potential for light lake effect snow for north to mainly northwest
wind snow belts Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Then
attention turns to well above normal temperatures for the upcoming
weekend.
A surface low pressure sytem will continue to slide off to the east
of the U.P. Wednesday night through Friday morning. At the same
time, high pressure will beging to slide toward the Upper Great
Lakes region from the Northern Plains. Aloft, broad troughing will
remain in place across the area. The cooler air aloft, associated
with the trough, and the north to northwesterly flow off Lake
Superior will allow for light to occasionally moderate lake effect
snow for the aforementioned snow belts. The best potential for
seeing an increas in coverage/intensity of lake effect snow would be
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again Thursday night into
Friday morning. This will be due, in large part, to shortwave energy
rotating through the area. Generally expecting about 1 to 3 inches
in the aforementioned snow belts with locally higher totals
approaching 5 inches under any focused banding.
The aforementioned high pressure ridge will slide across the area
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, allowing conditions to
become fairly calm, with little to no chance of precipitation.
Saturday and Sunday the high pressure ridge will shift east of the
area as a low pressure system organizes across central Canada,
allowing for stronger southerly flow between the two. A warm from is
progged to approach/slide thorugh the CWA Saturday night into Sunday
morning, which will allow for light precipitatioin to develop across
the area. This will be around the same time that a shortwave slides
in aloft. At this point, the soundings would indicate mainly rain,
with possibly a mix of freezing rain and snow late Satuday night
into early Sunday morning. With enough variance in the models have
decided to stick with a rain and snow mixture. The upper level
ridging increase for Sunday with continued southerly flow. This
combination along with clearing skies could allow temperatures to
warm as high as the upper 40s to possibly even 50 degrees by Sunday
afternoon.
Early next week, Monday and Tuesday, models continue to advertise a
strong low pressure system sliding through the Upper Great Lakes
region; however, there is little agreement on exact placement of the
surface low and upper-level features. The GFS takes the low
northwest of the area keeping temps warmer with more rain, while the
EC take sthe low across the central U.P., allowing for mixed
precipitation and colder air. The 12Z Canadian takes the low even
farther south and east the EC, across southern lower Michigan,
making the system even colder with less precipitation. All of the
model disagreement has led to a consensus of the model blends with
rain trending toward a rain/snow mixture by Tuesday. Again, little
confidence in this portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017
Although some -sn/-shsn wl impact the TAF sites this mrng, the
gradual arrival of some much drier air shown on the 00Z INL raob fm
the nw wl allow improvement fm IFR to MVFR. CMX wl be the first to
see improvement as the llvl ne shifting n wind wl not present a
sgnft upslope wind component there. As hi pres and the drier air to
the w make more inroads into the area this aftn and evng, winds wl
diminish and conditions wl continue to improve to VFR at CMX and IWD
by later in the aftn. With a continued upslope wind farther fm the
incoming drier air, SAW wl be the last to see improvement.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 355 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017
Light winds less than 20 kts to start the day but winds ramp up
quickly this aftn to 30-35 kts as low pressure system moves toward
western Great Lakes. As the low crosses the central and lower Great
Lakes into Wed and a high pressure ridge moves across northern
Ontario, expect NE gales 35-40 kts over much of the lake Tonight
with gales continuing over eastern sections on Wed morning. Winds
will then remain below 30 knots through the rest of the forecast
period. Heavy freezing spray is expected tonight into Wed,
especially for north central portions of the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ265>267.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LSZ263-264.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ263-264.
Lake Michigan...
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for LMZ248-
250.
&&
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VossHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 411 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-011200- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 411 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 /311 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Wet snow accumulations of a couple inches are possible from western Upper Michigan across the Keweenaw Peninsula and over the higher terrain of north central Upper Michigan tonight. The precipitation may be mixed with freezing drizzle this evening, leading to minor ice accumulations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday An inch or two of wet snow is possible over south central and eastern Upper Michigan on Wednesday. North winds gusting up to 40 mph will produce areas of blowing snow near Lake Superior on Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports and any reports of icing to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports on our webpage, Facebook page, or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-011200- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 411 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 /311 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots are expected tonight over most of Lake Superior. Heavy freezing spray is expected over western and central Lake Superior late tonight. See the latest marine weather message for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots will continue over the east half of Lake Superior into early Wednesday afternoon. Heavy freezing spray is expected through early Wednesday afternoon over western and central Lake Superior. See the latest marine weather message for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-011200- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 411 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday North gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening toward the open waters of Lake Michigan. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. KEC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 750 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 MIZ005>007-014-085-010400- Marquette-Alger-Luce-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft- Including the cities of Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, Manistique, and Seney 750 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 ...Some patchy dense fog this evening... Expect locally dense fog to continue this evening. This fog will reduce visibility as low as one quarter mile at times until increasing north winds later tonight behind a cold frontal passage push some drier air across Upper Michigan and dissipate the fog. If you must drive this evening, use extra caution and your low beam headlights. Allow extra time to reach your destination. KC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 816 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 MIZ005-010400- Marquette- Including the cities of Gwinn and Marquette 816 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 ...Some dense fog and freezing drizzle this evening... Expect locally dense fog and patchy freezing drizzle to continue this evening. The freezing drizzle may result in as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation on untreated surfaces, especially over the higher terrain. Untreated roads and sidewalks may be very slippery. The fog will reduce visibility as low as one quarter mile at times until increasing north winds tonight drag some drier air across Upper Michigan and dissipate the freezing drizzle and fog. If you must drive this evening, use extra caution and your low beam headlights. Allow extra time to reach your destination. KC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 1044 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 MIZ005-010900- Marquette- Including the cities of Gwinn and Marquette 1044 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 ...Some dense fog and freezing drizzle into the overnight hours... Expect locally dense fog and patchy freezing drizzle to continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday, when the freezing drizzle will change to light snow showers. The freezing drizzle may result in as much as a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation on untreated surfaces, especially over the higher terrain. Untreated roads and sidewalks may be very slippery. The fog will reduce visibility as low as one quarter mile at times until increasing north winds during the early morning drag some drier air across Upper Michigan and dissipate the fog. If you must drive this evening, use extra caution and your low beam headlights. Allow extra time to reach your destination. KC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 1143 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 MIZ005-010600- Marquette- Including the cities of Gwinn and Marquette 1143 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 ...Slippery Roads and Sidewalks Overnight... Expect some light snow, which may be mixed with freezing drizzle over the higher terrain into the early morning hours on Wednesday, to cause slippery roads and sidewalks overnight. Total snow accumulation overnight will be around an inch. If you must travel overnight, allow extra time to reach your destination. KC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The National Weather Service in Negaunee Township measured 5.3 inches of snow in 12 hours.
A station four miles northwest of Menominee measured 6.2 inches of snow in 30 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 686072, 686075.