Showers and thunderstorms forming along a frontal boundary produced heavy rain in the Grand Marais area from the 18th into the morning of the 19th.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms forming along a frontal boundary produced heavy rain in the Grand Marais area from the 18th into the morning of the 19th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 6:46 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 746 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Upper level trough in process of deepening across western Great Lakes this morning. Associated sfc low northern WI to cntrl Upr Michigan has been ragged most of the night but should begin to deepen through the morning as stronger shortwave upstream arrives. Rain with some embedded thunder has become widespread over most of west and northern WI and recently into southwest Upper Michigan in area of strongest pva and increasing h85-h5 fgen on cyclonic side of deepening sfc-h85 low. Rest of forecast area is dry attm but there is some patchy fog with humid airmass lingering overhead. Dense fog is lurking over Lk Superior with ship obs off Keweenaw and Grand Marais reporting vsby blo 0.5 mile as of 06z. A wet day is in store for much of Upper Michigan as widespread rain continues to expand over cntrl forecast area through the morning and eventually makes it to the eastern forecast area this aftn. Rain will begin to taper in the aftn over west but cyclonic N-NW flow on west side of sfc low along with persistent h85-h5 fgen should keep widespread rain going especially over north central even until mid aftn. PWATs up to 1.25 inches will get squeezed out over parts of west and central forecast area into rain amounts by late today of possibly over 1 inch. Best chance for thunder will be over scntrl and east. Could see marginally strong convection try to form this morning far scntrl 10-12z and then lifting across eastern forecast area through 15z. That area is ahead of main punch of shortwave dry slot leading to steeper lapse rates, along north edge of mucape gradient with mucape up to 1000 j/kg, and in area of effective shear up to 40 kts and 0-1km shear near 20 kts. Majority of high res models indicate some stronger cells could develop so will have to keep aware of that possibility. Later today could also see additional storms try to form vcnty of sfc low as it lifts across eastern forecast area. Effective shear over 30 kts will have shifted east of that area and even sfc based cape should be mainly less than 500j/kg. Even if there are storms this aftn they should not be strong with heavy downpours and lightning the main hazards. Meanwhile, as winds shift off Lk Superior behind the low, expect temps to slowly fall or become steady in the upper 50s to around 60 through the day especially over the west and north central. Dense fog over Lk Superior will also try to advect onshore. Not sure on coverage so for now just kept it as areas of fog along the shore whereever the winds are forecast to become onshore. Highs today will be warmest over south central where it could reach 70 before temps start to fall late in the day. Tonight the main shortwave trough and sfc low move east so there should be a lull in showers late evening to early overnight. Showers will increase late tonight as another shortwave and a reinforcing cold front cross the area. Cannot rule out rumble of thunder as mid level lapse rates increase over 6c/km but chances for thunder overall look lower than we have seen recently. Fog may linger near Lk Superior, especially east of Munising. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.S. with a deep trough in the Mississippi River Valley and upper Great Lakes region 12z Mon. This trough remains through Tue over the area as the ridge moves into the Rockies and then the ridge starts to get flattened over the Rockies Tue night with the ridge shifted to the desert sw 12z Wed. Nam shows some weak 850-500 mb q-vector convergence 12z Mon through 00z Wed with deeper moisture remaining through then. Will be dry then for Tue night and overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, ECMWF and GFS show a 500 mb ridge over the desert sw and southern Rockies with troughing across most of Canada and the westerlies across the northern U.S. 12z Wed. Troughing moves in the northern plains 12z Thu and moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri which lasts through Sat. Upper troughing remains over the area into Sun. Temperatures look to be mostly below normal for this forecast period along with continued unsettled weather for most of the period as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 746 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Showers will continue into this afternoon at the TAF sites as low pressure over central Upper Michigan drifts over eastern Upper Michigan. Conditions have been slow to deteriorate but do expect them to become more prevailing LIFR/IFR as rain continues to saturate low-levels and northerly/onshore flow from Lake Superior develops on backside of the low pressure system. Conditions will improve more significantly to VFR at IWD this aftn as rain ends there but will be slower to improve at CMX and SAW with showers hanging on until later afternoon. Conditions will generally be MVFR at all the TAF sites tonight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017 Warm/moist air and some rain has resulted in dense fog forming this morning over parts of Lk Superior. Expect areas of fog to persist into tonight. Overall winds should stay 20 kts or less through this week. However with winds shifting to the northwest today into tonight, even 15-20 kt winds will help build waves along the Lake Superior shoreline, especially east of Marquette. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 417 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-191200- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 417 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /317 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms today across central upper Michigan. Some storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday More thunderstorms are possible Monday, especially during the afternoon hours across the south central. There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of the storms could be strong Wednesday evening across the west. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or strong winds from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-191200- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 417 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 /317 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a small chance for thunderstorms this morning along the south shore of Lake Superior, mainly to the east of Marquette. Some storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. Fog may be dense at times through this morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of the storms could be strong. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-191200- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 417 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms today. Some storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. Fog may be dense at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday More thunderstorms are possible Monday, especially during the afternoon hours. There is also a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night. Some of the storms could be strong. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. 07
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
625 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
MIZ013-181130-
Delta MI-
625 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017
...Strong thunderstorm will affect Escanaba through 7 AM EDT...
At 623 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Escanaba, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts to 30 mph
will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Escanaba, Gladstone, Rapid River, Ford River, Brampton, Ensign,
Perkins and Stonington.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Stay inside or in a vehicle until this storm has passed.
&&
LAT...LON 4566 8723 4599 8709 4585 8666 4560 8697
4562 8706 4559 8709 4559 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 213DEG 20KT 4570 8714
JLAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The observer in Grand Marais reported several gravel and dirt highways washed out from heavy rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 709822.